Wednesday NCAAF Odds & Picks: How to Bet Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State & New Mexico State vs FIU
Getty Images. Design by Cyriel Klitsie/Action Network.
- For the first time this college football season, we have Wednesday night football.
- Our experts broke down both Wednesday night college football games and shared a pick for Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State and New Mexico State vs. FIU.
- Check out both betting previews and picks for Wednesday's college football games below.
Wednesday. Night. Football. Few word combinations on the entire planet are as intriguing as those three words right there.
Tonight marks a stretch of 49 days with football every single day, and it all kicks off with some CUSAction on this beautiful Wednesday night in October.
First, the Jacksonville State Gamecocks look to stay undefeated in conference play in their first FBS season when they head to Murfreesboro to take on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders. Then, to wrap up the night, the New Mexico State Aggies host the FIU Panthers as the Aggies hope to pick up their first Conference USA victory.
So, welcome to this glorious stretch of the football season. Let's enjoy it while we can — because before we know it, it'll be February and we'll be waiting another six months for this feeling.
Wednesday College Football Betting Previews
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Wednesday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 8 p.m. | ||
| 9 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee
Jacksonville State heads on the road for the second straight week to battle Middle Tennessee in Wednesday night college football action.
The Gamecocks had a miracle win and cover last Thursday night, coming back from a 14-point halftime deficit to win beat Sam Houston by seven in overtime.
Even though it's sitting at 4-1, Jacksonville State has played one of the easiest schedules in the country. This game marks its second-ever Conference USA contest and first back-to-back road trip of the season, so we'll see how the Gamecocks handle it.
The Blue Raiders fell to 1-4 after their 31-10 loss to Western Kentucky this past weekend. Middle Tennessee has not beaten an FBS team yet, with its only win coming over Murray State — but it did open the season at Alabama and Missouri in back-to-back weeks.
Turnovers have been the story of the Blue Raiders' season, so if they can get that cleaned up, they may be able to pull out a conference victory.
Jacksonville State boasts one of the heaviest rush offenses that doesn't run the triple option. The Gamecocks run the ball on 66.2% of their offensive plays, but given the schedule they've faced, their rushing numbers should be better.
They're averaging five yards per carry and rank 48th in Rushing Success Rate, but they sit outside the top 90 in rushing explosiveness and 82nd in EPA/Rush. Plus, one of their top running backs, Ron Wiggins, is out until mid-November with a chest injury.
Quarterback Logan Smothers hasn't been asked to throw very much, but he's struggled a bit when he has.
Smothers owns a PFF passing grade of just 70.3 with four turnover-worthy plays and zero big-time throws. If you remove his game against FCS East Tennessee State, he's completed only 55.2% of his passes for 347 yards — good for six yards per attempt.
He has carried the ball a lot as a runner but really isn't that elusive or physical. He's forced only two missed tackles while averaging 2.1 yards per carry after contact.
The real reason Jacksonville State is undefeated is because of its defense. The Gamecocks are allowing only 4.3 yards per play and rank eighth in Success Rate Allowed.
They've been incredibly stout against the run, but that won't matter as much in this game against Middle Tennessee's pass-happy attack.
Jacksonville State did allow Sam Houston to throw for 299 yards and 7.7 yards per attempt, but overall, it's allowing only 6.9 yards per attempt and owns the 26th-best PFF coverage grade in the country.
This Middle Tennessee team is bad — there's really no other word to describe it.
Head coach Rick Stockstill has been at the helm since 2006, and this season, it's pretty clear that Middle Tennessee is going to throw the ball a lot on offense.
The Blue Raiders throw it on almost 55% of their offensive snaps, but the problem is they don't have a very efficient passing offense. Nicholas Vattiato holds a PFF passing grade of just 71.1 with 70% of his pass attempts coming within 10 yards.
When an offense throws that many short passes, it would typically have a high ranking in Passing Success Rate. That's not the case for Middle Tennessee, which ranks 91st in that area.
They also struggle to put together solid drives and finish them, ranking outside the top 100 in both Quality Drives and Finishing Drives.
The Blue Raiders' defensive metrics have been a bit inflated because of the blowout loss to Alabama. However, they held Missouri, Colorado State and Western Kentucky to a combined 3.1 yards per carry.
They also rank top-25 nationally in explosive rushing allowed, so Jacksonville State won't run the ball with ease on Wednesday.
Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee
Betting Pick & Prediction
Even though both of these offenses run pretty fast, I think the total is too high.
With the Gamecocks utilizing the ground game on two-thirds of their offensive plays, they keep the clock rolling as opposed to stopping it with every incompletion. Plus, they really haven't been that effective on the ground, ranking outside the top 80 in EPA/Rush.
Middle Tennessee has improved against the run since its game against Alabama, so I don't think the Gamecocks are going to run wild.
The Blue Raiders' pass-happy offense, which is built on a lot of short passes, just hasn't been that effective and in all likelihood won't move the ball much against a top-30 secondary.
I only have 43.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on the under at 52.
FIU vs. New Mexico State
The greatest celebration of football comes in the month of November when the Mid-American Conference takes over with a tradition known as MACtion.
However, Conference USA rebranded with new teams and a new schedule in the offseason, jumping the MAC in midweek games starting in October.
Florida International and New Mexico State will represent the conference on Wednesday, with one team inching closer to bowl season and another stuck in the cellar of Conference USA.
With an offseason win total below four, the Panthers have already rattled off three wins over Maine, North Texas and UConn heading into conference play.
Head coach Mike MacIntyre has retrieved the program from the abyss as he looks to propel Florida International to its sixth bowl appearance in program history. Thanks to improvement on the defensive side of the ball, the Panthers should make it to bowl season for the first time since 2019.
After spending nearly 20 years bouncing between the WAC and Sun Belt, New Mexico State went Independent after winning the 2017 Arizona Bowl. Now, NMSU is back in a conference.
The Aggies made a return trip to the postseason with a 2022 Quick Lane Bowl victory in Jerry Kill’s first season as head coach. The momentum did not carry over to the current season, as they took a loss in their first Conference USA game against Liberty.
New Mexico State has just a single win over FBS competition this season, beating in-state rival New Mexico in Week 3.
The Aggies embark on a schedule populated with coin-flips, starting in Week 6 against Florida International.
The Golden Panthers have been a surprise on the defensive side of the ball.
The 3-3-5 front from defensive coordinator Jovan Dewitt has been fantastic at taking away the pass against opponents. Although its schedule of opposing offenses leaves something to be desired, FIU sits top-40 in Defensive Passing Success Rate and PFF coverage grading.
While the Havoc numbers are outside the top 100, FIU is producing a top-30 pass rush. Both edge Alex Nobles and interior Jordan Guerad have thrived in the three-man front, generating a combined 33 pressures.
The offensive side has had severe struggles creating Quality Drives and cashing in on scoring opportunities. FIU averages a lowly 2.8 points on 21 drives that have crossed the opponent's 40-yard line.
Freshman quarterback Keyone Jenkins has produced plenty of big-time throws, but a turnover-worthy play rate at 6% has been troublesome.
The Panthers rank 130th in Havoc Allowed and 131st in Offensive Momentum Killer — both numbers deriving from tackles for loss, penalties, turnovers and a bevy of stats that measure the health of the offense.
For FIU to take another step toward bowl season, the offense must improve its dreadful numbers in controlling the line of scrimmage.
Despite three losses on the season, New Mexico State has an offensive identity.
Quarterback Diego Pavia and running back Star Thomas lead an Aggies offense that leads the country in Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate. Granted, New Mexico State has the 121st-ranked strength of schedule, but the Aggies have been excellent at gaining the required yards in standard downs.
Thomas has created 16 missed tackles on the season thanks to a heavy inside and outside zone rush attack.
Pavia has been tough to bring down as well, averaging 4.5 yards after contact while racking up 194 designed yards versus 140 from scrambling attempts.
TOUCHDOWN @NMStateFootball
Diego Pavia finds Jonathan Brady all alone on his way to the end zone!
📺: MW Network pic.twitter.com/qmpUEhD0dX
— Conference USA (@ConferenceUSA) September 17, 2023
However, the defense has not replicated the success of the offense, generating bottom-of-the-barrel ranks in passing downs and tackle grading.
The Aggies have trouble defending the pass but have seen a glimmer of improvement against the rush. A rank of 45th in tackles for loss has boosted New Mexico State's Havoc numbers, but long down and distances have been painful for the Aggies.
If New Mexico State wants to improve on defense, third-down stops must increase.
FIU vs New Mexico State
Betting Pick & Prediction
The pace numbers indicate that Wednesday's Conference USA kickoff could be a slow grind in Las Cruces.
New Mexico State runs a heavy ground attack behind one of the slowest paces in FBS, averaging 31.4 seconds per play with a 61% rush rate. The Florida International defense has been great against the pass, but the Aggies should have success running the ball against a Panthers team that ranks 96th in Defensive Stuff Rate and outside the top 100 in Line Yards.
Where the Aggies could run into issues is in scoring position, as Florida International boasts a top-30 unit in terms of Defensive Finishing Drives. The Panthers have allowed just 12 of their opponent's 18 red-zone trips to end in points, with half of the opportunities resulting in a touchdown.
The FIU offense is not expected to contribute to the scoring. A rank of 129th in Offensive Quality Drives and 131st in Offensive Momentum Killer means the Panthers struggle to gain more than two first downs on drives. Explosiveness is the only avenue for scores, especially considering the New Mexico State defense ranks outside the top 100 in both Rush and Pass EPA.
The Action Network projection on the side comes in at New Mexico State -4, as the market opened and steamed toward a touchdown in favor of the Aggies. The better wager will come on the total, where the projection is 46.
With a pace of play similar to gridlock traffic on I-25, look for two offenses that struggle to piece together methodical drives to keep this game under the total.
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
