College Football Odds & Picks for Missouri vs. South Carolina: Saturday’s Betting Value on the Gamecocks
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Badie.
- After Will Muschamp left the program, the South Carolina Gamecocks will host the Missouri Tigers.
- With Mike Bobo taking over in the interim, the Gamecocks shouldn't be too far behind.
- Check out BJ Cunningham's full betting preview with updated odds below.
Missouri vs. South Carolina Odds
|Missouri Odds||-5.5 [BET NOW]|
|South Carolina Odds||+5.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-195/+155 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||57.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
|TV||SEC Network Alt.|
Missouri looks to get back to .500 on Saturday night when it travels to South Carolina to take on the Gamecocks.
Missouri hasn’t played in over 20 days after having its game against Georgia postponed last week. The Tigers have struggled offensively but will now face their easiest test of the season against a depleted South Carolina defense.
South Carolina is in a state of chaos at the moment. Will Muschamp was fired after the loss to Ole Miss, so Mike Bobo will take over as interim head coach. Bobo was the head coach at Colorado State from 2015-19, so South Carolina won’t be in complete chaos on the sidelines. However, the Gamecocks may have the worst defense in the SEC, so their offense is going to have to play well if they want a chance at pulling off an upset.
The strength of the Tigers’ offense has been its passing game. Freshman quarterback Connor Bazelak has been really efficient, throwing the ball for 7.9 yards per attempt and putting Missouri in the top half of college football in Passing Success. Missouri has had to rely on transfers Jalen Knox and Damon Hazelton, who have tried to replace the production of the team’s top three targets from last year. They’ve been average so far, combining for 39 catches and 411 yards receiving.
The run game behind Larry Rountree III was supposed to be the strength of the Tigers coming into the season. So far, though, Missouri has struggled to find any semblance of a run game, as it’s carrying the ball for only 3.5 yards per attempt. South Carolina has been terrible versus the run this season, so Missouri will need to establish a run game if it’s going to find success offensively.
In 2019, Missouri boasted one of the best defenses in the country, but that hasn’t translated into 2020. The Tigers are ranked 96th in Defensive Rushing Success, mainly due to the fact they lost Jordan Elliott on the defensive line. Missouri will also be without most of its defensive line, as three starters are questionable to play on Saturday.
Missouri may have the best linebacker in all of college football in Nick Bolton, who already has racked up 53 tackles in five games. Outside of Bolton, though, it’s pretty bleak in the linebacking corps.
Missouri has also struggled against the pass mainly because it’s breaking in two new corners. The Tigers have allowed 8.7 yards per attempt and rank 101st in passing explosiveness allowed. They’ll need to limit the big plays if they are going to avoid an upset on the road.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Collin Hill has taken a step back in 2020, throwing the ball for only 6.7 yards per attempt. However, the senior has been much more effective over the past three games in limited pass attempts (7.47 yards per attempt). He holds a great connection with senior wideout Shi Smith, who has 37 more catches than any other Gamecock receiver. Hill and Smith will need to keep their solid connection going on Saturday if the Gamecocks want to pull off the upset.
Offensive coordinator and now interim head coach Mike Bobo has made a big change over the past four games. The Gamecocks are much more focused on establishing the run.
They’ve run the ball on 57% of their plays, which is an increase from 45% in their first three games of the season. So far, the change has meant great success, as sophomore running back Kevin Harris is averaging 6.55 yards per carry in his last four games, including 243 yards against Ole Miss last weekend. For the Gamecocks to be successful on Saturday, they are going to have to run the ball against Missouri’s weak run defense.
The defensive side of the ball has been an issue for South Carolina in 2020 and ultimately cost Muschamp his job. It ranks in the bottom half of college football in almost every major category and has struggled against both the run and pass.
The defensive line lost Javon Kinlaw to the NFL but has two five-star recruits who need to increase their level of play if South Carolina is going to slow down Missouri on Saturday. The Gamecocks have really struggled to create Havoc as well, racking up only 11 sacks and turnovers for the season.
The strength of the South Carolina defense was supposed to be in its secondary. It brought back a ton of experience, but it’s been terrible thus far, allowing 9.4 yards per attempt.
Ole Miss moved the ball at will in South Carolina’s last game, averaging 8.85 yards per play. The Gamecocks’ defense is going to need to drastically improve if it’s going to stay in this game.
Betting Analysis & Pick
With the improvements on the offensive side of the ball and in the running game, South Carolina has a shot at pulling off the upset in Columbia. Missouri’s rush defense has been average at best and may struggle with the Gamecocks’ ground attack.
I have Missouri projected as -0.37 favorites, so I think there’s some value on the Gamecocks at +6.5.
Pick: South Carolina +6.5 (down to +4)