College Football Odds, Picks, Preview for New Mexico vs. San Diego State: Betting Value on Underdog (Oct. 9)

College Football Odds, Picks, Preview for New Mexico vs. San Diego State: Betting Value on Underdog (Oct. 9) article feature image
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  • The New Mexico Lobos take on the San Diego State Aztecs in Saturday night Mountain West action this week.
  • The Lobos enter as big underdogs but hold betting value, according to Doug Ziefel.
  • Check out Ziefel's full betting guide with odds and picks below.

New Mexico vs. San Diego State Odds

New Mexico Odds +19.5
San Diego State Odds -19.5
Moneyline +700 / -1125
Over/Under 42.5 (-105 / -115)
Time 9 p.m. ET
TV FS1
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The upstart San Diego State Aztecs — boasting their top-25 ranking — host the New Mexico Lobos. This may be the opposite of a marquee matchup, but there is a very profitable situation that we can take advantage of.

The Lobos are looking to end a three-game losing skid in which their offense has been stifled. They have only totaled 23 points over the last three games, which is 25 points less than the Aztecs put up in their last game.

San Diego State has been rolling through the first quarter of this season. The Aztecs are undefeated with a big upset victory over Utah on their resume.

They are expected to handle the Lobos easily, but will they be in for more of a game than expected?


New Mexico vs. San Diego State Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 9
9 p.m. ET
FS1

New Mexico Lobos

New Mexico Offense

As I mentioned in the open, this Lobos’ offense has been unproductive as of late.

They do hold two key edges in this matchup that could allow their offense to come to life, though. New Mexico drastically outranks the Aztec defense in Line Yards and Passing Success.

Quarterback Terry Wilson has shown flashes this season and is coming off a better performance against Air Force.

His best performance came against New Mexico State when he completed 71 percent of his passes and totaled 381 yards.

If Wilson can get time to throw he can be very effective against this San Diego State secondary.

On the ground, the running back tandem of Aaron Dumas and Bobby Cole has not had any amount of sustained success. They have lacked explosive runs and have only reached the end zone once all season.

The Aztecs’ defense has been tough against the run as they are second in the nation in Rushing Success Rate allowed.


New Mexico Defense

The Lobos’ defense has been better than the scoreboard shows this season.

They have held their opponents to just 2.7 yards per rush for an average of just 77 yards per game allowed. Their rush defense will be a huge factor in this game as San Diego State rushes at over a 70% rate.

Against the pass — which they won’t see many in this matchup — New Mexico has also performed surprisingly well. The Lobos rank 23rd in Passing Success Rate allowed and Big Plays allowed.

Look for this defense to earn some stops as this Aztecs offense is a bit overrated.

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San Diego State Aztecs

San Diego State Offense

San Diego State has the sixth-highest rush rate in the country. The Aztecs would not be undefeated if it was not effective.

They have a multitude of backs that will get carries, but they are led by senior Greg Bell. Bell has rushed the ball 73 times at 5.6 yards per clip. He was injured in last week’s contest but is expected to be ready to go come Saturday night.

The Aztecs’ starting quarterback, Jordon Brookshire, will be returning after missing two games.

Brookshire makes the offense much more of a threat when throwing the ball as he will take his shots down the field. However, prior to his injury, he was also very inaccurate as he only completed 48 percent of his passes.


San Diego State Defense

The play of this defense is what has made the Aztecs a top-25 team.

So many of their metrics jump off the page. They are second in Rushing Success, second in Defensive Havoc, 11th in big plays allowed and eighth in Finishing Drives.

They held opponents to an average of just 46 yards per game on the ground. That breaks down to a microscopic 1.9 yards per carry.

They have certainly made their presence felt and could be a nightmare for the New Mexico offense.


New Mexico vs. San Diego State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how New Mexico and San Diego State match up statistically:

New Mexico Offense vs. San Diego State Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 118 2
Line Yards 66 130
Pass Success 114 130
Pass Blocking** 35 27
Big Play 106 11
Havoc 114 2
Finishing Drives 109 8
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

San Diego State Offense vs. New Mexico Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 28 85
Line Yards 75 88
Pass Success 118 23
Pass Blocking** 33 24
Big Play 47 23
Havoc 75 66
Finishing Drives 92 84
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 78 79
PFF Coverage 31 6
Middle 8 101 17
SP+ Special Teams 28 38
Plays per Minute 79 115
Rush Rate 54.1% (67) 70.5% (6)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


This is going to be a low-scoring defensive battle. The only number that is left to determine is how many points the Lobos can actually put up?

New Mexico will have to throw the ball effectively if it wants to have any chance. The data is certainly in its favor, and I do expect the Lobos to get on the board here.


New Mexico vs. San Diego State Betting Pick

This game fits perfectly into one of our most profitable PRO Systems.

The Lobos are 19.5 point dogs, but the total is only at 42. With not much scoring expected, it will give New Mexico countless back door opportunities if they do go down big in the game.

I’m going to hold my nose and take New Mexico.

Pick: New Mexico +19.5

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