Pitt vs. Duke Odds, Picks: Bet the Panthers to Win Big (Saturday, November 6)

Pitt vs. Duke Odds, Picks: Bet the Panthers to Win Big (Saturday, November 6) article feature image
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  • The Pitt Panthers face the Duke Blue Devils on Saturday, and updated odds have the Panthers as 21.5-point favorites.
  • The Panthers suffered a tough loss to Miami last week, but this is a solid opportunity for the team to bounce back in ACC play.
  • Check out Alex Hinton's top bet for the matchup below.

Pittsburgh vs. Duke Odds

Pittsburgh Odds -21.5 (-108)
Duke Odds +21.5 (-113)
Moneyline -1667 / +850
Over/Under 64 (-112 / -109)
Time Saturday, Noon ET
TV ACC Network
Odds as of Saturday and via BetRivers

The Pitt Panthers saw their four-game winning streak come to an end last week with a 38-34 loss to Miami. Now, with a one-game lead in the ACC Coastal, the Panthers will head to Durham to battle the Duke Blue Devils.

After a 3-1 start to the season, Duke is winless in ACC play. Additionally, the Blue Devils have been thoroughly outplayed all season and have been outscored, 162-41, in four ACC contests.

Duke will look to pick up a bit of momentum this week, but that will be difficult as a big underdog against a Pitt squad that has had its number in recent years.

The Panthers lead the all-time series, 15-9, and have won six of the last seven meetings since 2013. It may be a similar story on Saturday.


Pittsburgh Panthers

Pittsburgh Offense

Quarterback Kenny Pickett suffered a setback in his potential Heisman campaign with the loss last week, but it is hard to pin much blame on him. He threw for 519 yards and three touchdowns, but did toss two interceptions.

On the season, he is sixth in the FBS in passing yards (2,755), fourth in touchdown passes (26) and has completed 69% of his passes.

Add a potent trio of receivers (Jordan Addison, Taysir Mack and Jared Wayne) and you have a difficult passing attack to defend. Addison leads the way for Pitt with 47 receptions for 815 yards and 10 touchdowns.

The Panthers rank sixth in Passing Success Rate. A strong offensive line makes it possible with the Panthers ranking 12th in pass blocking grade and 14th in Havoc.


Pittsburgh Defense

The Panthers have been one of the strongest defensive units in the country, but Miami had its way offensively. Pitt surrendered 38 points and 490 yards of total offense, with 426 of it coming through the air.

A struggling Duke offense will offer a good chance to bounce back.

One thing you know about Pitt is it will create a ton of Havoc. The Panthers are  ninth in Havoc, eighth in Line Yards and 16th in Rushing Success Rate.

Pitt is also 13th in the FBS in sacks. Defensive end Habakkuk Baldonado leads the way with 6.5 sacks thus far.

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Duke Blue Devils

Duke Offense

Duke has had success moving the ball this season and ranks 25th in the country in total offense at 454.5 yards per game. However, it has had its average dwindle to 359 yards per game in ACC play.

The Blue Devils like to establish the run game and run the ball on nearly 60% of their snaps. Mataeo Durant leads the way with 973 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. He is coming off another 100-yard rushing performance and is seventh in the country in rushing yards.


Duke Defense

While Duke may not take advantage of its own scoring opportunities, its opponents are converting at a high rate. Duke is 121st in Finishing Drives defensively.

Considering the Pitt offense is fifth in Finishing Drives, Duke may be in some trouble this week.

The Blue Devils also struggle to defend the big play through the air or on the ground. They rank 75th in the FBS or better in big play percentage allowed, Passing Success Rate Allowed and Rushing Success Rate Allowed.

Duke will be at a disadvantage against Pitt in all of these areas.


Pitt vs. Duke Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Pitt and Duke match up statistically:

Pitt Offense vs. Duke Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 59 87
Line Yards 70 77
Pass Success 6 75
Pass Blocking** 12 76
Big Play 9 87
Havoc 14 45
Finishing Drives 5 121
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Duke Offense vs. Pitt Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 54 16
Line Yards 56 8
Pass Success 40 33
Pass Blocking** 50 73
Big Play 71 101
Havoc 84 9
Finishing Drives 111 43
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 115 105
Coverage 83 89
Middle 8 1 104
SP+ Special Teams 27 107
Plays per Minute 37 7
Rush Rate 49.4% (102) 58.2% (43)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Pitt vs. Duke Betting Pick

Duke has been severely overmatched on both sides of the ball since it began its ACC schedule, and Pitt projects to be Duke’s toughest opponent.

Duke will not be able put much pressure on Pickett. As a result, he will have a big day against a struggling Duke defense that is 89th in pass coverage.

Pitt’s front seven will make things difficult on Durant. Shutting him down will make Duke one-dimensional. It will also put more pressure on quarterback Gunnar Holcomb, who has struggled the last few weeks.

Duke will have a hard time getting stops or keeping up with Pitt offensively. As a result, I like the Panthers to cover and win this one in easy fashion.

Pick: Pitt -21

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