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College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions for Indiana vs. Nebraska (Saturday, October 1)

Indiana vs. Nebraska Odds

Saturday, Oct. 1
7:30 p.m. ET
Big Ten Network
Indiana Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+6.5
-114
61.5
-110o / -110u
+190
Nebraska Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-6.5
-106
61.5
-110o / -110u
-230
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Nebraska hosts Indiana in a cross-division Big Ten matchup.  Both of these teams enter this game coming off of a loss, but it was Indiana’s first of the year compared to Nebraska’s third. Which team will bounce back from their loss?

Indiana enters this game with a 3-1 record and are coming off of a loss to Cincinnati. They are just 1-3 against the spread and have gone over in three games.

Nebraska comes into this game with a 1-3 record and an interim head coach. They are 0-4 against the spread and have gone over in just two games.

There’s no rain in the forecasts and temperatures will be in the 70’s at the time of kickoff. But the wind may have a slight impact on the scoring in this game. Winds will range from 9.5 to 11.4 miles per hour throughout the game.


Indiana Hoosiers

After struggling on both sides of the ball in 2021, Tom Allen has Indiana playing fast through four games. The Hoosiers are averaing 28.8 points per game and 4.8 yards per play. They have 38.8 percent success rate and average a blazing 18.2 seconds per play which has helped them rank second with 84.3 offensive plays per game.

After transferring from Missouri following two seasons as their starting QB, Connor Bazelak has taken over the starting QB in Bloomington. The offense has leaned heavily on the pass, averaging 50.5 passes per game. He’s completed 53.5 percent of his passes for an average of 5.8 yards per attempt. He’s thrown for 1171 yards and seven touchdowns, but has thrown four interceptions.

Two RBs have over 100 rushing yards for the Hoosiers. As a team, they’re averaging 33.8 rushes per game and 3.4 yards per rush.  They have a 38 percent rushing success rate and have average four 10+ yards rushes per game. The offensive line has created 2.92 line yards per attempt and has allowed a 15.4 percent stuff rate.

Indiana is allowing 29.2 points per game and 5.6 yards per attempt. They’ve allowed a 40 percent success and 3.5 points per opportunity. They’ve generated havoc on 15 percent of plays. Opposing offenses have found greater success passing against this defense that has allowed a 48 percent passing success rate and is allowing 279.8 passing yards per game.


Nebraska Cornhuskers

Mickey Joseph wasn’t done any favors in his first game as interim head coach. Oklahoma welcomed Joseph to the head coaching ranks with a 49 to 14 bludgeoning.  Through four games, the Cornhuskers are averaging 30.5 points per game and 6.2 yards per play. They have a 51 percent success rate and have averaged 23 seconds per play.

Transfer QB, Casey Thompson is completing 65 percent of his passes for an average of 8.5 yards per attempt. He’s thrown five touchdowns, but has thrown three interceptions. As a team, Nebraska has a 46 percent passing success rate and they’ve averaged four 20+ yard passes per game.

Nebraska’s offense still prefers the running game. They have a 54 percent rush rate and have averaged 41 rush attempts per game. Anthony Grant has led the way with 464 rushing yards and five scores. As a team, they have a 53 percent rushing success rate. The offensive line has created 3.87 line yards per attempt and has allowed a 5.8 percent stuff rate.

Offense hasn’t been the issue for Nebraska. It’s been a struggling defense that has them reeling. They’ve allowed 35.5 points per game and 6.3 yards per play. Their 50 percent success rate allowed ranks 123rd and opponents have scored an average of 4.41 points per opportunity. One key area of concern has been that they’ve only created havoc on 13 percent of plays.


Indiana vs. Nebraska Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Indiana and Nebraska match up statistically:

Indiana Offense vs. Nebraska Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 95 116
Line Yards 96 86
Pass Success 59 122
Pass Blocking** 120 29
Havoc 72 117
Finishing Drives 114 102
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Nebraska Offense vs. Indiana Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 13 30
Line Yards 4 48
Pass Success 38 109
Pass Blocking** 99 122
Havoc 66 84
Finishing Drives 43 53
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 107 59
PFF Coverage 120 95
SP+ Special Teams 30 121
Seconds per Play 18.2 (1) 23.0 (16)
Rush Rate 40.1% (126) 56.2% (49)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Indiana vs. Nebraska Betting Pick

Despite being just 1-3, Nebraska is nearly a touchdown favorite in this matchup and bettors have largely backed them to cover. Despite 53 percent of tickets being on Indiana, 76% of the money in on Nebraska.

At initial glance, I prefer Nebraska’s side, but with so many questions about both teams, picking a side isn’t the best approach.

Both defenses are a concern in this game and the offenses are high-powered. That’s why the best play is on the total. Even with the windy conditions, there’s no reason to expect either offense to struggle to move the ball down the field.

Pick: Over 60 (Play up to 62) 

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