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UConn vs. NC State Odds, Picks, Predictions: Will Wolfpack Win By 40?

UConn vs. NC State Odds, Picks, Predictions: Will Wolfpack Win By 40? article feature image
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Photo by David Jensen/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Ben Finley (NC State)

  • NC State is almost a 40-point favorite against UConn in Week 4.
  • Will the Wolfpack cover this large number against the Huskies?
  • Alex Hinton breaks down the matchup and offers up his top pick.

UConn vs. NC State Odds

Saturday, Sept 24
7:30 p.m. ET
ESPN3
UConn Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+38.5
-118
49.5
-110o / -110u
+N/A
NC State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-38.5
-104
49.5
-110o / -110u
+N/A
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The UConn Huskies have already matched last season’s win total under first-year coach Jim Mora. The Huskies lost at Utah State and then beat Central Connecticut State at home. They covered both games in the process.

However, the last two weeks, UConn has failed to cover in blowout losses to Syracuse and Michigan. It was outscored 107-14 in those games.

This week, UConn has another tough test at NC State.

NC State is 3-0 this season. It survived a scare at East Carolina in Week 1 before throttling Charleston Southern and Texas Tech at home.

Against Texas Tech, NC State looked like the team I picked to win the ACC in the preseason. NC State is up to No. 12 in the AP Poll this week, its highest ranking since 2002.

This will be the third meeting between UConn and NC State all-time, with the Wolfpack winning both games by a combined 10 points.

However, the Wolfpack are big favorites against UConn this time.

NC State is 2-1 against the spread this season, but can it cover the number this week?


Connecticut Huskies

UConn has played three quarterbacks this season, as Mora tries to identify his quarterback of the future.

Freshman Zion Turner has taken the majority of the snaps, but has not had much success. He is averaging less than 100 yards passing per game, is completing 51.5% of his passes on 4.3 yards per attempt, and has four touchdown passes against three interceptions.

The Huskies are 111th in Passing Success Rate.

UConn is 37th in Rushing Success Rate. Freshman running back Nathan Carter has been the focal point of the offense, averaging 105 yards per game on 6.2 yards per carry to go along with one touchdown.

However, Carter is out this week with a separated shoulder. Devontae Houston is back from an injury of his own and will start this week. He is averaging eight yards per carry this season.

The diminutive Aaron Turner leads the team in receiving and is the main source of explosiveness in the UConn passing attack. He is the only player on the team with over 10 catches or 100 yards so far this season.

UConn is allowing 35.2 points per game — which is 110th nationally — and 6.1 yards per play. The Huskies have held well against the run, only allowing four yards per carry.

However, defending the pass has been an issue.

UConn is 129th in Passing Success Rate Allowed. Quarterbacks are completing 72% of their passes against this defense. The Huskies have just one interception, but have allowed seven touchdown passes.

Against Devin Leary, the Huskies could be in for a long day.


NC State Wolfpack

NC State beat Texas Tech 27-14 last week in a game that was dominated by its defense. The Wolfpack forced the Red Raiders into four turnovers, recorded four sacks and limited TTU to 2-for-12 on third down.

Cornerback Aydan White led the way with five tackles (one for loss), one sack and two interceptions. He brought back one of his picks to the house for a 84-yard touchdown return. For his efforts, White was named Walter Camp National Player of the Week.

The Wolfpack are now 17th nationally in scoring defense, eighth in rushing yards allowed per game and 14th in Passing Success Rate.

NC State should be able to snuff out UConn’s rushing attack — particularly without Carter — since its own defense is strong and the fact that it will likely be playing with a big lead early on. That will force UConn to abandon its running game.

This game could also be a get-right outing for Leary. Last year, Leary completed 65% of his passes and threw for 3,433 yards and 35 touchdown passes with just five interceptions.

This season, Leary is averaging 190 yards per game, is completing 59.3% of his passes and has five touchdown passes and one interception.

Leary has done a great job of managing the game this season. However, he could have a big day against a UConn defense that is 98th in pass coverage grade and 129th in Passing Success Rate.

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UConn vs. NC State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UConn and NC State match up statistically:

UConn Offense vs. NC State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 37 31
Line Yards 109 22
Pass Success 111 14
Pass Blocking** 21 72
Havoc 19
Finishing Drives 84 32
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

NC State Offense vs. UConn Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 88 105
Line Yards 67 108
Pass Success 39 129
Pass Blocking** 14 110
Havoc 62
Finishing Drives 62 100
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 88 105
PFF Coverage 98 30
SP+ Special Teams 77 10
Seconds per Play 27.6 (88) 27.9 (94)
Rush Rate 61.7% (20) 53.4% (68)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

UConn vs. NC State Betting Pick

UConn is 2-2 ATS this season, however, it covered against Central Connecticut State and a Utah State team that looks like a shell of the group that reeled off double-digit wins last year.

Against the Power Five opponents it has faced this season, UConn has been thoroughly outplayed.

Now the Huskies must travel to Raleigh and deal with a stingy NC State defense without their best offensive player.

I expect NC State to control this game from start to finish. If you feel safer taking the Wolfpack to cover the first half, that is not a bad option either. However, those lines are not available as of this writing.

NC State is likely to win this game by 40+ points, so I like it to cover, as well. NC State is 2-1 (2-0 at home) ATS this season and covered in a similar spot against Charleston Southern in Week 2.

Pick: NC State -38.5

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