Texas vs Oklahoma State Odds, Picks | College Football Betting Preview
Adam Davis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers (left) and Xavier Worthy (right).
Texas vs. Oklahoma State Odds
There will be no shortage of drama when two Big 12 brand names collide in a knockout round Saturday afternoon.
Both Texas and Oklahoma State have a single loss in the conference standings with TCU and Kansas State undefeated in the pole position.
A loss by the Longhorns or Cowboys will not only send the teams to two losses in the Big 12 standings but also complicate any tiebreaker scenarios that play out through the remainder of the season.
The Longhorns still have both the Horned Frogs and Wildcats in front of them, signifying a Big 12 Championship berth may run through Austin when TCU visits on Nov. 12.
Steve Sarkisian's team receives a bye week after the Pokes, but a close call against Iowa State last week has set a different mentality in the Longhorns' locker room.
Steve Sarkisian jokes about the Longhorns & potential re-occurring rat poison: "There is no rat poison… We had a real come to Jesus this morning." #HookEm
— Devon Messinger (@devonmessinger) October 17, 2022
Mike Gundy doesn't want to talk about injuries. As heard on the New BCS episode of the Big Bets on Campus podcast, the grizzled head coach will keep practice time and injury status within the program.
While Action Network's own Brett McMurphy said the Cowboys quarterback didn't even ice after last week's game, the point spread took large wagers on Texas throughout Sunday.
An opener of Texas -1 at Circa Sports flew to Texas -4 within three minutes, as another wave of Monday morning money stabilized the Cowboys as 6.5-point underdogs.
Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers returned from injury in Week 6 against Oklahoma, blistering the Sooners for four touchdowns and nearly 300 yards passing.
The freshman had a tougher task facing the 3-3-5 stack scheme from Iowa State but added another three passing touchdowns.
Ewers is playing quarterback over Hudson Card because of a higher big-time throw ceiling, but with those plays comes the risk of turnover. Ewers has logged three turnover-worthy plays since returning from injury and also recorded a fumble against the Cyclones.
Quinn Ewers is so lucky he recovered this😂
— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 15, 2022
Opportunities will exist for the Cowboys to force Ewers into turnovers, but weapons at the skill positions are thriving.
Bijan Robinson has 10 rushing touchdowns on the season, averaging 4.2 yards after contact. Only Auburn's Tank Bigsby has a higher elusiveness rating, which is defined by the impact of the ballcarrier independent of blocking.
Robinson is also the second highest-graded running back in receiving grades, trailing only Georgia's Kenny McIntosh.
— Hudson Standish (@247Hudson) October 15, 2022
But is Texas back? The defense has made the case that the Longhorns are indeed a player at the national level.
Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski has completed a 180 with his unit after spending the 2021 season in the FBS cellar in plenty of advanced statistical categories.
The Longhorns have been especially stout against passing attacks, generating a top-30 rank in pass rush and coverage. The biggest improvement comes in Finishing Drives, allowing just 3.1 points on 27 opponent scoring attempts.
A market number close to a touchdown indicates Sanders will not play Saturday. While the information will not be confirmed until kickoff, investors quickly hit early limits to get the best of the number in case starting duties fall to Gunnar Gundy.
Even Sarkisian is looking at every single piece of film possible in diagnosing the status of Sanders, including the fifth-year quarterback's post-game body movement.
"I think he is an elite competitor… You can see the guys rally behind him."
Steve Sarkisian on Spencer Sanders pic.twitter.com/90xNxWnkko
— Cayden McFarland (@caydenmc) October 18, 2022
Gundy's sample size is limited, as 23 dropbacks against Arkansas-Pine Bluff resulted in two touchdowns with no big-time throws or turnover-worthy plays.
The coach's son showed an ability to scoot, generating 46 yards rushing on four attempts with an even distribution between designed runs and scrambles.
With minimal data available on Gundy, oddsmakers are making Sanders' absence a six-point adjustment to the spread.
— OSU Cowboy Football (@CowboyFB) September 18, 2022
There has been a drop-off on the defensive side of the ball after losing a number of key contributors and a coordinator from last season.
New coordinator Derek Mason and the 4-2-5 scheme remain a top-20 team in Defensive Havoc, generating a top-20 pass rush and terrorizing backfields as the fifth-best team in tackles for loss.
The Longhorns' offensive line will be tasked with containing Collin Oliver and Trace Ford at the edge positions, as both rank in the top 125 individually in pass rush productivity.
The Pokes are sixth in Defensive Stuff Rate, one of the more important metrics against a stable of Texas running backs that produce in the trench.
Texas vs. Oklahoma State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas and Oklahoma State match up statistically:
Texas Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Oklahoma State Offense vs. Texas Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Pace of Play / Other
|SP+ Special Teams||35||15|
|Seconds per Play||25.8 (49)||21.0 (4)|
|Rush Rate||55.7% (51)||50.5% (81)|
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Texas vs. Oklahoma State Betting Pick
Action Network projects Texas as a one-point favorite considering full health on both sides of the ball. This number is expected to see minimal climb without Sanders and plenty of Oklahoma State buy-back if the starter is participating in drills around 2 p.m. ET at Boone Pickens Stadium.
There's value in backing Gundy at quarterback on an inflated spread of 7.5 or better, just as value exists on Oklahoma State to +3.5 with Sanders as the starter.
The total is behaving in a similar fashion, as an opener of 68 has decreased a full touchdown as of writing. Both key numbers of 65 and 62 have been crossed, as the total approaches the second-biggest key of all numbers at 59.
With the total dropping from Sanders rumors, there may be value on a Texas team total considering the Longhorns offense won't face Sanders himself.
The Oklahoma State defense ranks 70th in allowing explosive plays, but the Longhorns' advantage in early downs should provide extended drives. Texas has the 14th-highest rate of standard downs thanks to a Success Rate rank of seventh.
Ewers and Robinson will look to bounce outside of the tackles or go over center to avoid the Pokes' chaos creators lined up at the edge position. The two most successful rushing directions for Robinson have been outside the right edge and directly over center, producing five runs of 10 yards or more in both directions.
Texas doesn't have the speed-racer pace that Oklahoma State plays with, but the Pokes' 21 seconds per play will mean extra possessions for the Horns.
Poor second-level fundamentals from the Cowboys will be a factor when Ewers connects with Robinson and wide receiver Xavier Worthy, as Oklahoma State ranks 70th in tackle grading.
Because of a complete mismatch in Finishing Drives, the Horns will score more touchdowns than field goals. The Cowboys are allowing 4.1 points when opponents cross the 40-yard line, so look for Texas to exceed its team total with Sanders' status uncertain.