College Football Odds, Picks: Week 5’s Biggest Stat Discrepancies, Including Oklahoma State vs. Baylor & More
William Purnell/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: The Oklahoma State Cowboys offensive line.
Week 5's college football slate features a number of statistical discrepancies for categories that are key to covering the spread.
This week's slate features a number of conference matchups, including Oklahoma State vs. Baylor, SMU vs. UCF and Stanford vs. Oregon. Each one has major differences in some key statistics like Success Rate, Havoc, Finishing Drives and more.
Check out three key discrepancies for Week 5 below.
Oklahoma State at Baylor
Oklahoma State Offensive Finishing Drives, 2nd · Baylor Defensive Finishing Drives, 47th
Baylor Offensive Finishing Drives, 3rd · Oklahoma State Defensive Finishing Drives, 76th
A solid Baylor win over Iowa State saw more points go on the board than predicted, going over the closing number by double digits.
The Bears got into scoring position in five of the first six drives against the Cyclones. Blake Shapen continues to look sharp with a clean pocket, as Iowa State had just a single quarterback hurry.
Baylor is the third-most opportunistic offense in the country with 22 trips inside the opponent's 40-yard line with an average of 5.9 points per trip.
There's similar success on the Oklahoma State side, coming off of a bye week after a Week 3 victory over Arkansas-Pine Bluff. With an average that exceeds 500 offensive yards per game, the Pokes have been the second-most opportunistic team in scoring position. In 20 trips past the opponent's 40-yard line, the Cowboys have also averaged 5.9 points.
These are two of the three best scoring offenses in the nation on sustained drives.
The Action Network projection on the total is in the 60s, while the early market hovers around 54. With 55 being the biggest key number in totals, an over is certainly in consideration for investment.
SMU at UCF
SMU Offensive Finishing Drives, 48th · UCF Defensive Finishing Drives, 6th
UCF Offensive Passing Success Rate, 114th · SMU Defensive Passing Success Rate, 35th
When two high-powered uptempo offenses collide, the points can come in flurries. Considering the performances of both defenses when opponents attempt to score, there's a case to be made for the under.
SMU has averaged 498 yards per game in two recent Power Five contests against TCU and Maryland. The box scores have been pass dominant behind quarterback Tanner Mordecai, but UCF's top-35 ranks in Defensive Passing Success Rate and coverage grading may add up to some stops for the Knights.
More importantly, the Knights defense performs well when pressed against the red zone. UCF has allowed an average of just two points when opponent drives extend beyond the 40-yard line.
SMU will have similar success in stopping the air attack, as John Rhys Plumlee continues to struggle in the pocket. Central Florida ranks 114th in Passing Success Rate, a number that bleeds into red-zone attempts.
The Knights rank 118th in red-zone scoring — a number that gives the SMU defense a chance to make stops by loading up on Plumlee.
There's an avenue for this game to go under the total.
Stanford at Oregon
Stanford Offensive Finishing Drives, 7th · Oregon Defensive Finishing Drives, 127th
Oregon Rushing Success Rate, 6th · Stanford Defensive Rushing Success Rate, 104th
There may not be two worse defenses in the Pac-12 when it comes to stopping the chains and keeping opponents from scoring.
Oregon is near dead last in Defensive Finishing Drives, allowing 5.1 points on 23 opponent possessions extending past the 40-yard line.
The Ducks have generated one of the worst pass rushes in the nation, alongside a low tackle-for-loss rate. That's bad news against a Stanford offense that ranks top-10 in Offensive Finishing Drives.
Turnovers and defense have kept Stanford from covering two Pac-12 games. The Cardinal rank 118th in Defensive Havoc, along with a rank of 127th in Defensive Line Yards. Teams are plowing through the Stanford defense on the ground while taking advantage of a back seven that ranks 103rd in coverage grading.
Oregon not only has a top-10 rank in Rushing Success Rate, but Bo Nix also has the best offensive line in the country when it comes to pass protection.
Defense will certainly be limited in this Pac-12 rivalry.