College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Wyoming vs. Air Force: Saturday’s Betting Value on Pokes (Oct. 9)

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Wyoming vs. Air Force: Saturday’s Betting Value on Pokes (Oct. 9) article feature image
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Williams Paul/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Craig Bohl and the Wyoming Cowboys.

  • Wyoming and Air Force take the field in a Mountain West matchup on Saturday night.
  • The Cowboys are underdogs in this one, but Kyle Remillard thinks they can win outright.
  • Check out Remillard's betting preview below, including odds, picks, & predictions, based on his analysis.

Wyoming vs. Air Force Odds

Wyoming Odds +5 (-109)
Air Force Odds -5 (-112)
Moneyline +175 / -230
Over/Under 46.5 (-113 / -108)
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV CBS Sports Network
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Wyoming Cowboys enter Mountain West Conference play undefeated as they travel to face the 4-1 Air Force Falcons Saturday.

Although Wyoming is 4-0, it’s been a bumpy road to get there.

Besides the 45-12 domination over Ball State, it’s been underwhelming in the other three games. It took a game-winning drive to beat Montana State and Northern Illinois. The Cowboys only beat the 128th-ranked UConn Huskies by two before their bye week.

Air Force is 4-1 on the season thanks to an easy early schedule. The Falcons have faced only one team that ranks inside the top 100.

This game could prove pivotal for each teams’ chances of winning their division in the Mountain West, as they will need to overcome Boise State.


Wyoming vs. Air Force Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 9
7 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network

Wyoming Cowboys

Wyoming Offense

The Wyoming offense has been the bottleneck for this program in recent years. That doesn’t seem to be the case this season, as the unit has averaged 35 points per game.

Quarterback Sean Chambers has been nominated for Comeback Player of the Year. In 2018, Chambers broke his fibula. In 2019, he tore his meniscus. And last year, he broke his fibula again on the third play of the season.

He owns a lifetime record of 13-3 as the Wyoming starter when healthy.

The Cowboys are a run-first offense that rushes the ball on 64% of their plays. They rank 31st in Rushing Success Rate thanks to their offensive line that ranks 29th in Line Yards.

Senior running back Xazavian Valladay has been the workhorse for the Cowboys and has scored a rushing touchdown in each game this season. Chambers has also proven to be an effective runner and isn’t afraid to put his head down to pick up a first down when needed.

The Cowboys were missing both tight ends against UConn, but the team indicated that Colin O’Brien will be back for this matchup.


Wyoming Defense

The Wyoming defense has been the backbone of this program over recent years. It owns a defensive TARP rating of 82% from a unit that was one of the best in the Mountain West last season.

This year, it’s accounted for 21 tackles for loss and 13 sacks. It’s averaged two takeaways per game and returned two of those for touchdowns.

The Cowboys have traditionally found success against the triple option. The game between these two last year was canceled, but in 2019, Wyoming’s defense held Air Force to 2.9 yards per carry on 56 attempts in that game.

This week, the Pokes are coming off a bye week, which is another seven days to help prepare for slowing down the Air Force rushing attack.

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Air Force Falcons

Air Force Offense 

Another year of Air Force’s reliable triple-option attack. The offense has averaged over 440 yards of total offense per game. Of course, the run game is responsible for 83% of that production.

The Falcons rank first in rush rate in the country, running the ball on 91% of their plays. They’ve averaged 5.5 yards per carry and ran in 22 touchdowns on the season.

Quarterback Haaziq Daniels has this offense operating on all cylinders. He’s averaged 5.9 yards per rush on his 71 carries this season and punched in eight touchdowns.

In the rare event he’s thrown the ball, it’s been explosive. Daniels has averaged 11.6 yards on his 33 pass attempts this season, which ranks second in the nation.

Running back Brad Roberts leads the Mountain West in rushing with his 540 yards to add to his five touchdowns. The Falcons have another strong fullback in Emmanuel Michel, which is pivotal to this offense.


Air Force Defense

The Air Force defense has been solid to this point, allowing less than 17 points per game.

Much of that is to the benefit of the offenses it has faced. The defense held Lafayette, Navy, FAU, and New Mexico to an average of 8.5 points and 200 yards of total offense. The wheels fell off when it faced Utah State, which amounted over 620 yards of offense and 45 points.

Air Force has been strong against the run this season, allowing 3.3 yards per carry.

Being mostly undersized in the 3-4-4 defensive scheme opens an opportunity for teams to pass against it. Air Force ranks 106th in the country in Defensive Passing Success Rate.

The Falcons rank ninth in the nation in tackling, according to PFF. That will be an important factor in this matchup against a hard-nosed dual-threat quarterback in Chambers.


Wyoming vs. Air Force Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wyoming and Air Force match up statistically:

Wyoming Offense vs. Air Force Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 31 87
Line Yards 29 64
Pass Success 76 106
Pass Blocking** 26 18
Big Play 97 73
Havoc 13 30
Finishing Drives 105 37
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Air Force Offense vs. Wyoming Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 7 98
Line Yards 59 35
Pass Success 108 88
Pass Blocking** 99 63
Big Play 113 36
Havoc 7 83
Finishing Drives 92 84
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 70 9
PFF Coverage 7 56
Middle 8 15
SP+ Special Teams 107 87
Plays per Minute 106 126
Rush Rate 63.7% (19) 90.8% (1)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Wyoming vs. Air Force Betting Pick

Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl is 4-2 in his tenure when matching up against Air Force. He’s experienced in stopping the triple option, and this year he’s had an extra week to prepare for it.

Bohl called this one a rivalry game during his mid-week comments, and the Cowboys will surely be fired up.

Coming into the season, it was unclear how Air Force’s offense was going to operate with a bunch of new faces. It hasn’t really been tested with a cakewalk schedule to this point.

The combined difference in score between these two teams over the last five matchups has been just three points. There is some value on the under with two run-happy teams both ranking outside the top-100 in plays per minute.

But the wrong team is favored in this matchup, according to Collin Wilson’s Power Ratings This number opened at 2.5 but has been steamed up to 6. I

’m taking the points and the moneyline with Wyoming.

Pick: Wyoming +6 | Wyoming ML +190 (Play to +160)

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