Tulsa vs SMU Prediction: The Team Total Pick for Saturday
Sam Hodde/Getty Images. Pictured: Preston Stone of SMU.
Tulsa vs SMU Odds
| Tulsa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -105 | 56.5 -115o / -105u | +1000 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -115 | 56.5 -115o / -105u | -2000 |
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane enter this matchup with a record of 3-4, and trending downward as they ride a two-game losing streak. Last Thursday, they were blown out at home by a score of 42-10 against Rice. The Hurricane will have two extra days of preparation for this matchup, which will help as they are heavy underdogs at SMU this week.
SMU will also have an extra day of preparation after its victory last Friday night. It cruised to a 55-0 victory over Temple and improved to 5-2 in the process. The Mustangs are in a three-way tie for first place in the AAC with Tulane and UTSA.
SMU won last year's meeting 45-34, but it probably has not forgotten that the Hurricane won 34-31 in Dallas in 2021. Tulsa has also won six of the nine meetings since both programs have been in the AAC. When they get together, a bunch of points tend to get scored. In this matchup, SMU may do most of the scoring.
In terms of production, you will not find many teams more balanced than Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane are averaging 184.3 yards through the air and 187.9 yards on the ground. Freshman Cardell Williams has emerged at the quarterback position. He has thrown nine touchdowns and seven interceptions while averaging over nine yards per attempt.
Williams has also ran for 50 yards in two of his last three games. Last year's starter, Braylon Braxton, has also been a factor in the run game since returning from injury as he ran for 89 yards in last week's loss to Rice. The Hurricanes lean heavily on the running game, rushing the ball on nearly 66% of its offensive snaps.
Senior running back Anthony Watkins leads the team with 396 rushing yards and he also has ran for two touchdowns this season. This game will be a homecoming for him as native of Forth Worth, Texas. He scored a touchdown in Tulsa's upset victory over SMU in 2021.
The Hurricanes are average-to-above average nationally in both passing success rate (50th) and rushing success rate (65th). However, it has not translated into points. The Hurricanes are 95th in scoring offense at 23.7 points per game. They are averaging just 13.5 points per game in their four losses.
Defensively, Tulsa is 111th in scoring defense, allowing 31.1 points per game. Playing Washington and Oklahoma in non-conference did not help that average. However, SMU will pose a significant challenge as well.
The Mustangs will likely look to exploit Tulsa's porous pass defense. The Hurricanes are 126th in passing success rate and 131st in PFF coverage's grade. It will does not help matters they are 110th in havoc and have just nine sacks this season.
SMU may have two losses this season, but it is playing at a very high level on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they are averaging 36.4 points, which ranks 16th in the FBS. They play at a fast pace and like to put the ball in the air, which is no surprise with Rhett Lashlee at the helm.
Sophomore Preston Stone is his trigger man and he has thrown for nearly 1,800 yards, is 12th in the FBS with 16 touchdown passes and has five interceptions. He also loves his home field as his completion percentage (65.1%) is 11 points higher at home. Stone has spread the ball around very effective as five pass catchers have over 200 receiving yards. Senior Jake Bailey leads the team with 26 receptions for 294 yards.
The Mustangs also have a talented trio of backs in Jaylan Knighton, LJ Johnson Jr., and Camar Wheaton. Knighton, a Miami transfer, leads the group with 422 yards and three touchdowns, including a 95-yarder against Charlotte.
Pitching a shutout is a great way to boost a team's defensive stats and it is now ninth nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 14.6 points per game and 8.7 in conference play. It is also ranks top 10 nationally in passing success rate, rushing success rate, and quality drives.
The Mustangs lead the AAC in total defense, allowing just 285.6 yards per game, and are second in the conference with 22 sacks. Defensive end Elijah Roberts, another Miami transfer, leads the team with four sacks on the season.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tulsa and SMU match up statistically:
Tulsa Offense vs. SMU Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 65 | 8 | |
| Line Yards | 42 | 27 | |
| Pass Success | 50 | 10 | |
| Havoc | 121 | 75 | |
| Finishing Drives | 43 | 45 | |
| Quality Drives | 100 | 7 |
SMU Offense vs. Tulsa Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 59 | 65 | |
| Line Yards | 59 | 90 | |
| Pass Success | 70 | 126 | |
| Havoc | 12 | 110 | |
| Finishing Drives | 42 | 92 | |
| Quality Drives | 15 | 87 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 112 | 52 |
| PFF Coverage | 131 | 46 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 40 | 118 |
| Middle 8 | 88 | 2 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.6 (48) | 24.4 (20) |
| Rush Rate | 65.9% (7) | 51.4% (73) |
Tulsa vs SMU
Betting Pick & Prediction
SMU is 5-0 when scoring 30 points or more this season, and this week, it is a three touchdown favorite. To cover that spread, it will need to be put a lot of points on the scoreboard and it should be able to do so against Tulsa. The Mustangs have scored 30 points against Tulsa in three of the last four meetings, reaching 40 in each of its last two victories over the Golden Hurricane
In this matchup, Stone should have a field day against this Tulsa secondary and he should have a lot of time to throw as well. He is coming off a 300-yard game at Temple and another one may be in the cards in this matchup. If that is the case, SMU will be in Tulsa's territory often and the Hurricanes' defense is 92nd in finishing drives.
SMU is averaging 40 points per game in conference play and with a team total of 38.5, 40 points is likely what we will need to clear this line.
Pick: Team Total – SMU Over 38.5 Points (-105)
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