Let’s end Week 5 with a bang.
Check out our college football predictions and best bets for Alabama vs. Georgia, Oregon vs. Penn State, and more from our elite crew of NCAAF experts.
College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
 | Evening | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Collin's Card: Evening Best Bet
Alabama's additions of Tim Keenan III to the defensive line and Jam Miller to the offensive backfield will pay dividends against Georgia.
Any improvement to the rushing attack of Alabama should clear up even more time for Ty Simpson in passing attempts. Georgia ranks outside the top 100 nationally in EPA per Pass allowed, and the Bulldogs have three underperforming cornerbacks to cover wide receiver Ryan Williams.
Although Georgia struggles in Defensive Finishing Drives, Alabama has been even worse. The Crimson Tide have allowed 4.4 points on average to opposing offenses crossing the 40-yard line.
To this point, Alabama has struggled against opponents' inside zone run concepts, producing a 45% Success Rate.
The Action Network's betting power ratings have Georgia as a 3-point favorite with a total of 61 points.
Considering the nature of the first Kalen DeBoer and Kirby Smart battle in 2024 — along with inefficient corner play from Georgia — this game could see plenty of scores.
Read Collin's entire Alabama-Georgia breakdown and more in his Week 5 card:
Pick: Over 52.5 (-110, bet365)
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Stuckey's Spots: Evening Best Bet
By Stuckey
Yes, I'm really trusting "Small Game James" in a big game. What could possibly go wrong?
While Franklin has turtled up many times in these high-profile games (which could be problematic against the very aggressive Dan Lanning), I do love this spot for the Nittany Lions, who have essentially been preparing for this matchup since spring.
They have essentially shown nothing against three cupcakes and even have had a bye week to prepare for this top-10 showdown. That's especially critical for arguably the top coordinator duo in all of college football.
Expect plenty of wrinkles (and Drew Allar-designed runs) that Oregon will not have seen on tape this year.
Yes, Oregon has looked like the much better team and will likely have shot up most power ratings due to its dominant results, but this was essentially a new team with a brand-new quarterback, so it made sense for it to get the offense rolling and demolish the lesser teams.
So far, the Ducks have beaten Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Oregon State and Montana State. Color me less than impressed with a team everyone was seemingly down on coming into the year.
Now, everybody has changed their tune because of the destruction of an Oklahoma State team that got blown out on its home field by Tulsa and subsequently fired its long-time head coach.
Additionally, while Penn State played an FCS opponent followed by a bye week, Oregon traveled east for a conference game, then back home for the Civil War before heading back out to the East Coast.
Advantage Nittany Lions from a scheduling standpoint.
I'm personally just sticking more to my priors when it comes to these two teams. And before the season, Penn State would have been at least a touchdown favorite.
Quarterback Dante Moore has looked fantastic, but again, he's played nobody in friendly environments with clean pockets and enormous talent advantages on the outside.
This is a much stiffer test against one of the best defenses in the country, playing in prime time in front of one of college football's rowdiest environments.
I still need to see Moore perform at a high level against a real Power 4 defense before I fully commit, especially after some of the blunders I witnessed when he saw action at UCLA.
Oregon does have talent for days, but two of its most important weapons are true freshmen, who may not quite be ready to shine on this stage against a suffocating defense under the tutelage of Jim Knowles, who shut down this Will Stein attack in the College Football Playoff to end the Ducks' 2024 season with Ohio State.
From a matchup perspective, I expect Penn State to have plenty of success on the ground, where Oregon's defense remains somewhat vulnerable.
That's where everything starts for the Andy Kotelnicki offense, which features one of the best running back duos in the nation.
Maybe Penn State can't just magically turn it on after sleepwalking through its first three games without showing much, and maybe Franklin clams up again in too many big spots, and maybe Allar folds under pressure in a big game again.
However, I had to pay what I consider a fair price for a great situational spot.
Check out all of Stuckey's Situational Spots for Week 5 here:
Pick: Penn State -3 or Better
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Ianniello's G5 Card: Evening Best Bet
I was low on Marshall entering the season. I even bet on the preseason win total under.
However, I have been pleasantly surprised by how they have performed through the first four weeks.
The Thundering Herd have started 3-1 against the spread and appear to be more feisty than expected under Tony Gibson.
Quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson has thrown six touchdown passes with no interceptions while completing 79% of his passes on the year. Demarcus Lacey has been an explosive target for Del Rio-Wilson, and tight end Toby Payne is the most reliable option and one of the few holdovers from last year’s Sun Belt Championship team.
Marshall was expected to fall apart after that Championship victory, but it is actually the team it beat that has been unraveling.
Louisiana has been a disaster to start the year. The Cajuns are 1-3, including a loss to Rice as double-digit favorites and another loss to a winless Eastern Michigan team.
Quarterback Walker Howard got hurt in the season opener, and his backup, Daniel Beale, has been a nightmare. He is completing just 50% of his passes with one touchdown and two interceptions.
The only way Louisiana can move the ball at all is on the ground with the tandem of Zylan Perry and Elijah Davis, but that plays right into Marshall’s strong front seven.
The biggest advantage for the Thundering Herd comes to us from Collin Wilson’s Havoc ratings.
Louisiana’s offensive line has been horrendous, ranking 122nd nationally in preventing Havoc. The Cajuns should struggle to block a Marshall defense that ranks 15th in generating Havoc. The Thundering Herd currently lead the Sun Belt with 14 sacks and 29 tackles for loss.
After expecting to compete for the conference championship once again, Louisiana is in free-fall mode and could be on "White Flag Watch" soon.
This spread is projected to be within a field goal, which does not bode well for the Ragin’ Cajuns. They have gone just 4-13 under head coach Michael Desormeaux in one-score games.
It’s not often a first-year coach has the coaching advantage, but that might be the case here.
Check out all of Ianniello's Group of 5 picks for Week 5 below:
Pick: Marshall +1 (-110, bet365)
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Ziefel's Player Props: Evening Best Bet
By Doug Ziefel
While there is plenty of star power in this matchup, there's value with Georgia tight end Oscar Delp.
The Bulldogs are a run-heavy offense, keeping the ball on the ground 57% of the time. This scheme generally limits targets and has made Delp nearly obsolete in the offense.
While he has surpassed this total in two of three games this season, he's done so on just four total targets.
Given how stout the Alabama defense has been, ranking third nationally in receiving yards allowed, we won't see Georgia have much success through the air.
It would be surprising to see Delp get more than two targets.
Pick: Oscar Delp Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-115, bet365)
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Our Featured Bet Labs System For The Evening Slate
This game triggered one of our Action Labs PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
Unfamiliar Blowout Overs is a college football system that identifies high-scoring potential in non-conference games where mismatches often lead to inflated point totals.
During the regular season, when the home team is favored by more than 30 points, the talent gap is wide enough that scoring can happen quickly and often.
Non-conference opponents are less familiar with each other’s schemes, which reduces defensive preparation and increases the likelihood of big plays.
By focusing on games where the closing total is below 60, the system identifies situations where expectations are modest despite conditions favoring offense.
In these contests, the stronger team can pile on points while the underdog often contributes through late scoring in garbage time, pushing results over the total more often than anticipated.
Not only is this system profitable in the long-term, but games that fit this system this season are already 11-6 to the Over (65% win rate, 23% ROI).
Want more PRO betting systems? Get an Action PRO subscription today:
Pick: Over 56.5 (-110, bet365)
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