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Wilson: Projecting College Football Championship Game Spreads, and Teams to Bet Sunday

Nov 25, 2018 11:46 PM EST
  • College football is entering its championship weekend, with a number of marquee matchups across the country.
  • Collin Wilson uses his betting power ratings to project point spreads and find value before the odds move.

Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee. Let this column serve as your first look at the projected point spreads for Week 14’s college football matchups — Championship Weekend.

These numbers are based off my college football betting power ratings, which you can find here.

As conference championship game lines are posted, I’ll compare my power-rated spreads to what oddsmakers posted to find betting value before the odds move.

Be sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts whenever I make a pick off these numbers.

College Football Week 14 Point Spread Projections

Numbers I’m Looking For

Texas vs. Oklahoma

Projected Spread: Oklahoma -10.5
Number I Want: Texas +7.5 or better

Tom Herman as an underdog has been one of the most consistent winners in college football, even before he got to Austin. This game has already been played once this year, a 48-45 shootout that saw Oklahoma score 21 in the fourth quarter.

We should expect nothing less than a shootout in Arlington, putting value on any point spread over a touchdown given how porous Oklahoma’s defense has been.

Georgia vs. Alabama

Projected Spread: Alabama -8
Number I Want: Georgia +7 or better

What is the best way to best the Alabama offense? Keeping Tua Tagovailoa off the field is a good start.

The Georgia rushing attack, led by Elijah Holyfield and D’Andre Swift, has been unstoppable since the loss to LSU. While Alabama does have one of the best rushing S&P+ numbers in the country, the Tide do rank 68th against explosiveness.

The Bulldogs also rank first in the nation against pass explosiveness, which will be needed against the Crimson Tide.

Pitt vs. Clemson

Projected Spread: Clemson -23
Number I Want: Clemson -21 or better

Typically, I am not looking to bet large point spreads, but this game could get out of hand fast. The ACC Championship Game will be played after the SEC Championship Game, and serves as as showcase for Clemson to prove worthy of a No. 1 seed for the College Football Playoff selection committee.

The numbers back this play up also, as Pitt has lived off a a rushing offense that ranks 11th in S&P+. The Panthers are sixth in rushing explosiveness and have a stuff rate of 33rd. Clemson is fielding the best rushing defense in the nation, ranking first in S&P+, first against explosiveness, and third in stuff rate.

This defensive line unit also ranks first in the nation in havoc. It could be a long night for Pat Narduzzi’s Pitt Panthers.

Situational Edges I’m Eyeing

  • AAC Championship:  Memphis held a 13-point lead heading into the second half against Central Florida earlier this season. The Tigers did not score again in the loss despite winning the total yards battle 490-461. The biggest news is the injury to UCF quarterback McKenzie Milton, who underwent surgery to stabilize his knee after an injury against South Florida.
  • Sun Belt Championship: Appalachian State notched a win against Louisiana Lafayette in Kidd Brewer Stadium earlier this year. The Ragin’ Cajuns lost by 10 but easily covered the 25-point spread. Don’t expect the line to be that high this time.
  • Pac-12 Championship: Washington left Rice-Eccles Stadium victorious back in Week 3, covering the 5.5-point spread. Three turnovers got the best of the Utes, who only had 261 total yards.
  • Conference USA Championship: A Florida International loss combined with a Middle Tennessee State victory made Murfreesboro the site of the conference title game. The Blue Raiders will play a second consecutive game against UAB, which turned in its worst performance of the season in Week 13.
Credit:

Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer
Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski

USA TODAY Sports

Follow Collin Wilson on Twitter
@_Collin1

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
59
-4
58.5
-3.5
64.5
-11
66.5
-8
52
-3
53.5
-4
48
PK
47.5
+1
50.5
-7.5
50.5
-6.5
-2.5
44
-2.5
43.5
55
-4.5
54
-3
-3
54.5
-2.5
55.5
-6
66.5
-5.5
68.5
48
-11
48.5
-12
-2.5
73
-5
74
67.5
-5
67
-3
-3
53.5
-2.5
52.5
-1.5
57.5
PK
60
55
-3.5
55
-3
61
-3.5
60
-3.5
41
-2
40.5
PK
56.5
-3
55
-3.5
-3
47
-4
47
-6.5
55
-3.5
55.5
54.5
-5
54.5
-3.5
-7
74
-1.5
68
54.5
-6.5
54.5
-3.5
50.5
-6
50.5
-7.5
-6.5
55
-4
54.5
-2
58.5
-1.5
60.5
56
-11
55
-12
79
-13.5
81.5
-14
-6.5
53.5
-5
53.5
-6.5
52
-6.5
52
48
-1.5
48
-3
-10
71
-8
74
45
-6.5
46.5
-7
58.5
-4.5
58.5
-5
-5
44.5
-7
44
-8
54.5
-7.5
55.5
48
-4
47.5
-6.5
58.5
-5
58
-6.5
58
-10.5
58
-11.5

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