College Football Week 7 Odds & Picks: Our Top Chalk Talk Bets, Including Stanford vs. Notre Dame & Kansas vs. Oklahoma
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Head coach Marcus Freeman and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided this year we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we cover weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
Last week, we split our two favorite chalk wagers. USC shut out Washington State in the second half to hold on for a cover, but Florida unfortunately let Missouri sneak in the backdoor late.
For Week 7, I rolled with a home conference favorite that I think is worth buying low, while Collin finishes us up in prime time.
YTD: 7-5, +1.5 units
Stuckey: Oklahoma -9
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
After a dream start to the season, it may be time to sell the Jayhawks while simultaneously buying low on the Sooners after three consecutive blowout losses to start Big 12 play.
For what it's worth, Oklahoma is now only the seventh team since 2010 with an average coverage margin of worse than 31 points over any three-game stretch. It's a meaningless sample size, but those six clubs did go 5-1 against the spread in the following game.
To illustrate how much things have changed in just one calendar year, Oklahoma closed as a 38-point favorite on the road at Kansas last October.
I'm banking on quarterback Dillon Gabriel to return, which is obviously massive for OU.
In the past two games against Texas and TCU, backup quarterback Davis Beville threw for 88 total yards on 13-of-28 passing with zero touchdowns and one interception. I'd argue there's a double-digit discrepancy in the point spread between Gabriel and Beville — maybe even up to 14 points.
Meanwhile, Kansas will likely be without star quarterback Jalon Daniels. He did dismiss reports that he'd miss the remainder of the season, but I can't see him suiting up on Saturday.
Also, don't forget Kansas still has one of the worst defenses at the Power Five level. There's no reason why Gabriel and company can't score at will.
I'm sure they want to take out all of their frustrations and blow out an opponent if possible.
Wilson: Notre Dame -17
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
The wind may be out of the sails for Stanford after putting its best football forward last week against Oregon State only to succumb to a last-minute hard-luck loss.
Heading into the final quarter with a two-touchdown lead, Oregon State capped off an 18-point fourth quarter with a 56-yard bomb to Tre’Shaun Harrison to add another notch in the Trees' loss column.
Stanford now sits at 1-4 straight up and against the spread with issues on both sides of the ball that should persist in South Bend.
The Cardinal rank dead last nationally in Defensive Line Yards, a stat defined as an offensive line getting credit for yards gained on the ground. That spells trouble against a Notre Dame offense that ranks 17th in that same category with a heavy 60% rush rate.
The Cardinal also rank 130th out of 131 teams in Defensive Stuff Rate. Notre Dame will consistently be untouched in the backfield and pick up chunks on almost every rushing attempt.
The Irish don't have an explosive offense, but they won't need to here. Their edge in the trenches should be too much for Stanford. Plus, Notre Dame's passing attack has been very efficient, ranking in the top 25 in Success Rate, so it can keep the Trees on their toes.
The Cardinal have struggled with Havoc on both sides of the ball all season, ranking outside the top 110 on defense and in Havoc Allowed on offense. Notre Dame is a sound team from a fundamentals perspective, ranking 16th in tackling and 19th in Havoc Allowed.
The fumbles, interceptions and tackles for loss should all benefit the Irish at home en route to a rout of Stanford.
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