College Football Week 8 Analytics Betting Preview: Success Rate, Havoc & More (Saturday, Oct. 21)
Greg Thompson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: An East Carolina Pirates flag.
We are officially 2-0 on the year in our Action Analytics betting previews.
We didn't have an article last week, but the LSU vs. Missouri battle lived up to the hype and cashed our over ticket in Week 6.
This breakdown looks at three metrics that have proven to be relevant to covering the spread:
If you're interested in why these metrics have been chosen, check out this piece by Collin Wilson. To quote his findings:
“Data from the past five years indicates defensive Success Rate, Havoc and Finishing Drives are the biggest indicators in beating oddsmakers this college football season.”
Let’s dive in and see where we can find an edge in Week 8.
Havoc
What is Havoc?
Havoc is a college football term defined as a play where there’s an unexpected outcome. Pass breakups, forced fumbles and tackles for loss are just a few of the plays that cause chaos on any given Saturday. Collectively, these plays are used to build an identity for a team.
The calculation for Havoc is simply a cumulative number of tackles for loss, interceptions, fumbles and passes defensed divided by the number of plays on both sides of the ball.
Let's see where we can find some big Havoc discrepancies in Week 8:
Home Team Havoc Allowed vs. Away Team Havoc Rate
Top 3 Havoc Mismatches (Home Offense vs. Away Defense)
- LSU Offense vs. Army Defense
- Oklahoma Offense vs. UCF Defense
- Pitt Defense vs. Wake Forest Offense
Away Team Havoc Allowed vs. Home Team Havoc Rate
Top 3 Havoc Mismatches (Away Offense vs. Home Defense)
- ECU Defense vs. Charlotte Offense
- Texas Offense vs. Houston Defense
- SMU Offense vs. Temple Defense
Success Rate
What is Success Rate?
Success Rate is an advanced metric in football that measures efficiency but with the important context of down and distance considered.
A play is defined as successful if:
- It gains at least 50% of the yards required to move the chains on first down
- 70% of yards to gain on second down
- 100% of yards to gain on third or fourth down
To calculate Success Rate, simply divide the number of successful plays (as defined by down and distance above) by total plays.
This definition is taken from our article on Success Rate.
Home Team Offensive Success Rate vs. Away Team Defensive Success Rate
Top 3 Success Rate Mismatches (Home Offense vs. Away Defense)
- Georgia State Offense vs. ULM Defense
- Missouri Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
- San Diego State Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
Away Team Offensive Success Rate vs. Home Team Defensive Success Rate
Top 3 Success Rate Mismatches (Away Offense vs. Home Defense)
- ECU Defense vs. Charlotte Offense
- Cincinnati Defense vs. Baylor Offense
- Ohio Defense vs. Western Michigan Offense
Finishing Drives
What is Finishing Drives?
Finishing Drives is calculated as points per opportunity when the offense passes the opponent’s 40-yard line.
Defensively, this is how many Points per Opportunity a defense allows when the opposing offense crosses the 40-yard line.
Home Team Offensive Finishing Drives vs. Away Team Defensive Finishing Drives
Top 3 Finishing Drives Mismatches (Home Offense vs. Away Defense)
- Arkansas Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
- Texas Defense vs. Houston Offense
- Stanford Defense vs. UCLA Offense
Away Team Offensive Finishing Drives vs. Home Team Defensive Finishing Drives
Top 3 Finishing Drives Mismatches (Away Offense vs. Home Defense)
- ECU Defense vs. Charlotte Offense
- USC Defense vs. Utah Offense
- Buffalo Offense vs. Kent State Defense
College Football Week 8 Betting Takeaways
This is one of the most pathetic offensive matchups I have ever seen, to be completely honest.
The offenses of Charlotte and East Carolina struggle, to say the least.
ECU's offense ranks in the bottom 30 of every offensive metric, including Success Rate, Points per Opportunity, Havoc Allowed and explosiveness.
Meanwhile, Charlotte ranks in the bottom 15 of every offensive metric with the exception of explosiveness.
In addition, ECU's defense is looking borderline elite, especially if it can limit the big plays. The Pirates rank in the top 20 of Success Rate Allowed, Havoc Allowed and Points per Opportunity Allowed.
A total of 40.5 seems too high for this contest. Give me the under.
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