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The Colorado Buffaloes take on the Arizona State Sun Devils in Tempe, Arizona, on Saturday, Nov. 7. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Arizona State is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -172. Colorado, meanwhile, enters as a +3.5 underdog and is +142 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 48.5 total points.
Here’s my Colorado vs. Arizona State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 7.
Colorado vs Arizona State Prediction
- Colorado vs. Arizona State Pick: Under 48.5
My Arizona State vs. Colorado best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Colorado vs Arizona State Odds
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +142 |
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -172 |
- Colorado vs Arizona State point spread: Arizona State -3.5 (-110), Colorado +3.5 (-110)
- Colorado vs Arizona State over/under: 48.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Colorado vs Arizona State moneyline: Colorado +142, Arizona State -172
Colorado vs Arizona State College Football Preview
Colorado Buffaloes Betting Preview: Inconsistent Buffs
Colorado heads to Tempe at 3-5 following a 27-24 overtime victory over Kansas State, and while the Buffs finally got back into the win column, I'm much more interested in their offensive efficiency than the final score.
Quarterback Isaac Wilson completed 14-of-21 passes for 185 yards and a touchdown against the Wildcats, while running back Richard Young provided a much-needed spark with 120 rushing yards.
However, that performance doesn't erase the underlying issues that have plagued Colorado throughout the season.
The Buffs are generating -0.01 adjusted EPA/Play, ranking 94th nationally, while producing a 41.1% Offensive Success Rate.
The rushing attack has been particularly inconsistent. Colorado ranks 121st in EPA/Rush at -0.01, while generating just 3.06 Line Yards per attempt, ranking 99th.
That's a difficult matchup against an Arizona State defense allowing -0.01 EPA/Play and a 39.7% Success Rate.
The Sun Devils have also been considerably more effective against the run than their overall defensive numbers suggest. Colorado's offensive ceiling has been driven largely by Wilson's ability to create explosives through the air.
Wide receiver Joseph Williams has been his primary weapon, recording 732 receiving yards while accounting for a substantial portion of the team's targets. However, the Buffs are generating only 3.79 Points Per Scoring Opportunity, ranking 102nd nationally.
That's an important distinction because Colorado can move the football between the 20s without consistently converting those possessions into touchdowns.
The Buffs are also allowing Havoc on 15% of their offensive snaps, while Arizona State's defense is generating Havoc on 17.7%.
That creates a legitimate concern for Wilson, particularly if Colorado can't establish the ground game and is forced into obvious passing situations. I still don’t trust this offense to be consistent enough, especially on the road.
Arizona State Sun Devils Betting Preview: Searching for Success
Arizona State enters this matchup at 4-4, and while Kenny Dillingham's offense has occasionally generated explosive plays, the Sun Devils haven't demonstrated the down-to-down efficiency necessary to consistently produce 30-plus point performances.
Arizona State ranks 92nd nationally, producing a 42.5% Offensive Success Rate.
Those numbers aren't particularly impressive against a Colorado defense that's been considerably better than its overall record suggests. The Buffs are allowing -0.02 EPA/Play and a 38.5% Success Rate, ranking 36th and 24th nationally, respectively.
The biggest mismatch comes in the running game. Arizona State is generating +0.09 EPA/Rush, but Colorado is allowing -0.07 EPA/Rush, ranking fifth nationally.
The Buffs defense doesn't get talked about enough; this is an extremely underrated group. The Sun Devils will have their hands full throughout the evening.
Running back Cardae Mack has been an important part of Arizona State's offensive production, but the matchup suggests the Sun Devils could struggle to consistently establish the ground game.
That would place additional pressure on the passing attack, which is generating just +0.03 EPA/Pass.
Wide receiver Reed Harris has been one of Arizona State's more reliable receiving options, while wide receiver Omarion Miller provides explosive potential when he's involved.
However, Arizona State is generating only a 32.4% passing downs Success Rate. Their juggling QB situation throughout the year has been a nightmare.
The Sun Devils are also allowing Havoc on 17.3% of offensive snaps, while Colorado's defense is generating Havoc on 18.8%, ranking ninth nationally. That's an important matchup because negative plays could consistently prevent Arizona State from sustaining scoring opportunities.
I think the Sun Devils offense continues to struggle here, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won an ugly one.
Colorado vs Arizona State Pick, Betting Analysis
This total opened around 49.5 before getting bet down to 48.5, and I'm willing to follow the move. The biggest reason is the matchup between Arizona State's rushing attack and Colorado's defensive front.
The Sun Devils are generating +0.09 EPA/Rush, but the Buffaloes are allowing -0.07, ranking fifth nationally. That's a significant advantage for Colorado.
On the other side, Colorado ranks 121st in EPA/Rush against an Arizona State defense allowing just a 39.7% Success Rate. Neither offense has a particularly attractive path toward consistently establishing the ground game.
The Finishing Drives numbers also favor the under. Colorado is generating only 3.79 Points Per Scoring Opportunity, while Arizona State is averaging 4.22.
Neither offense has been particularly efficient at consistently turning scoring opportunities into touchdowns. Colorado's defense ranks ninth nationally in Havoc Rate, while Arizona State's offense has struggled to consistently avoid negative plays.
Arizona State's defense also has an advantage in Havoc against Colorado's offense, particularly if Wilson is forced into obvious passing situations.
Both of these teams like to go a bit fast on offense, which is concerning. However, I think the defensive advantages on early downs and the potential for stalled possessions outweigh that concern.
I'll follow the sharp money and lock in this under.
Pick: Under 48.5
