Colorado State vs Boise State Odds, Picks & Predictions: Betting Value on Mountain West Over/Under
Tyler Ingham/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Boise State defensive tackle Scott Matlock.
Colorado State vs Boise State Odds
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+25 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +1400 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-25 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -3500 |
Since joining the Mountain West in 2011, Boise State has often been the class of the conference. However, Boise State is seeking its first conference title since 2019.
After a 2-2 start, three consecutive wins, including over preseason darlings Fresno State and Air Force, have the Broncos at 5-2 and 4-0 in the Mountain West. Boise State is atop the Mountain Division as the only undefeated team in conference play.
It will look to continue its momentum when it welcomes Colorado State to town.
It was a rough start to the Jay Norvell era, as Colorado State lost each of its first four games by at least 15 points. Amazingly, Colorado State has played three straight with nearly identical scores — 17-14, 17-13 and 17-13.
The Rams won two of those games and now sit at 2-5 overall and 2-1 in Mountain West play.
Boise State has won all 11 meetings in this series, including a 28-19 matchup in Fort Collins last season. This year, Boise State is a huge favorite at home. However, I'll be targeting the total.
Colorado State Rams
Colorado State did not do itself many favors opening up at Michigan. That was the first of four consecutive games in which it allowed at least 34 points. However, since then, CSU has stiffened up defensively.
Over the past three games, Colorado State is allowing 335 yards and 14.7 points per game. There are still areas that need improvement, as the Rams rank 81st in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 88th in Passing Success Rate Allowed. However, CSU ranks 25th in pass-rush grade and 34th in pass coverage grade, per PFF.
Colorado State is in a better place defensively than it is offensively.
Through seven games, Colorado State has scored just 90 points and ranks 130th in scoring offense at 12.9 points per game. The Rams rank 127th with 4.4 yards per play.
The advanced metrics aren't very favorable either. Colorado State ranks 130th in Rushing Success Rate, 128th in Passing Success Rate, 130th in Havoc Allowed, 130th in Finishing Drives and 126th in pass-blocking grade.
The Rams did get starting quarterback Clay Millen back last week after he missed the previous two games. Millen is efficient and completing 73% of his passes, which leads the Mountain West. He also ranks second in passer efficiency.
However, he has just five touchdown passes against four interceptions in five games and has been sacked 24 times.
His top target is wide receiver Tory Horton, who is also the team's primary source of big plays. The junior has 35 receptions for 538 yards (15.4 per reception) and five touchdowns.
Avery Morrow leads the team with 500 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 5.1 yards per carry. He has three consecutive games of 20-plus carries and 100 rushing yards. He had 147 rushing yards and two touchdowns last week.
Boise State Broncos
The 2022 season got off to a rocky start for Boise State. The Broncos started 2-2 and lost both games by 17 points. That led to the ousting of offensive coordinator Tim Plough and the transfer of quarterback Hank Bachmeier, the most heralded recruit in program history.
However, the Broncos have since won three straight and have averaged 31.3 points per game during that span.
The passing game is still a work in progress as freshman Taylen Green has two touchdown passes and an interception in all four games he has appeared in. The Broncos rank 101st in Passing Success Rate.
However, Green has also added some juice to Boise State's rushing attack. He has 245 rushing yards and four touchdowns on seven yards per carry. His dual-threat ability has also made life easier for running backs George Holani and Ashton Jeanty.
Holani is the team's leading rusher with 549 rushing yards and three touchdowns in six games. He missed last week's win over Air Force, but returned to practice this week. Boise State is 10-0 when Holani runs for 100 yards, including 3-0 this season.
Jeanty missed the second half of last week's game but ran for 53 yards and a touchdown before departing. He has 363 rushing yards and four touchdowns this season.
While Boise State is emerging offensively, its defense has fueled its success this season. Boise State ranks fifth in the FBS with 4.2 yards allowed per play. It also ranks 19th in scoring defense, allowing 18.4 points per game. It's held opponents to 20 points or fewer in five of its seven games this season.
BSU ranks 18th in Rushing Success Allowed, but its pass defense has been elite. The Broncos sit first in the FBS in passing yards allowed per game and third in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
Colorado State vs Boise State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Colorado State and Boise State match up statistically:
Colorado State Offense vs Boise State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 130 | 18 | |
| Line Yards | 108 | 36 | |
| Pass Success | 128 | 3 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 126 | 38 | |
| Havoc | 130 | 42 | |
| Finishing Drives | 130 | 59 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Boise State Offense vs Colorado State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 66 | 81 | |
| Line Yards | 41 | 72 | |
| Pass Success | 101 | 88 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 47 | 25 | |
| Havoc | 76 | 83 | |
| Finishing Drives | 50 | 99 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 54 | 5 |
| PFF Coverage | 34 | 21 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 115 | 83 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.7 (121) | 27.4 (91) |
| Rush Rate | 56.3% (49) | 59.0% (26) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Colorado State vs Boise State Betting Pick
Colorado State ranks 130th in both Finishing Drives and scoring offense. All seven games have gone under this season, and it hasn't scored 20 points in any game this season.
Things will not get any easier against a stingy Boise State defense.
The Broncos are improving offensively but are still averaging just 26 points per game. The under has hit in three of Boise State's past five games, and each of those games went under 43 points as well.
The under has hit in two of the past three meetings in this series. Additionally, neither of these teams operate at a fast tempo, as Colorado State ranks 121st in seconds per play and Boise State sits 91st.
When those factors are combined, the under is the best bet for this one. I would play it down to 41.5.
Pick: Under 43 ⋅ Play to 41.5 |
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