Duke vs UConn Odds, Picks: Target the Total
Photo by Williams Paul/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Ta’Quan Roberson (UConn)
Duke vs UConn Odds
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -2000 |
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +1000 |
Duke and UConn have played a national title on the hardwood twice in the last 25 seasons and very well could again this season.
College basketball is less two months away, but this Saturday, they will meet on the gridiron.
Duke has generated national headlines already for its upset win over Clemson on Labor Day. The Blue Devils are now 3-0 following a 38-14 drubbing over Northwestern last week, and they're up to No. 18 in the Coaches Poll.
UConn began its season with Duke's fellow ACC and Tobacco Road foe, NC State. The Huskies covered but lost 24-14 to the Wolfpack. The Huskies have failed to cover in their last two losses, including as a seven-point favorite against FIU last week.
This will be the third meeting in this series, with the Huskies holding a 2-0 edge. They won the last meeting back in 2007, 45-14.
This time, the Blue Devils are heavily favored on the road.
Duke is 3-0 for the first time since the 2017-2018 seasons when it had Daniel Jones under center.
It has another quarterback that may be playing on Sundays next season in Riley Leonard. The junior has thrown just one touchdown pass through the first three games, but he's completing 65% of his passes. He's been especially dangerous as a runner, as he's averaging 8.3 yards per carry and has scored three touchdowns.
Leonard ranks eighth nationally in QBR and he's leading an efficient Blue Devils offense. Duke ranks in the top 20 in Success Rate, Passing Success Rate, Havoc Allowed and Rushing Explosiveness. It's also in the top 30 in Rushing Success Rate, Line Yards and Finishing Drives.
The Blue Devils are 19th nationally in yards per play (7.2). Last week, they averaged over eight yards per play against Northwestern.
Many of those plays have come on the ground, as Duke has a 60.5 Rush Rate. That's allowed it to win the time of possession battle in its last two games.
However, Duke's defense has been stingy when called upon, particularly against the pass.
Duke is 12th nationally in Passing Yards Allowed, 11th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and first in PFF Coverage. Duke is currently leading the ACC with 17 pass breakups.
Nickelback Brandon Johnson leads the team with three breakups, while cornerback Myles Jones leads the team with two interceptions.
Duke's secondary has benefited from the pressure its front seven has created. Duke has 17 tackles for loss and six sacks this season, and it ranks 25th in Havoc.
From 2016-2021, Connecticut won just 10 games, but it won six games and earned its first bowl appearance since 2015 last season.
That created a lot of excitement heading into Jim Mora Jr.'s second year at the helm.
After hanging with NC State for four quarters in the season opener, UConn is 0-3 entering this week. With another loss, earning another bowl appearance may become a pipe dream for this season.
If UConn is going to go bowling again, it will have to do so without its starting quarterback, as Joe Fagnano suffered a season-ending at Georgia State.
Penn State transfer Ta'Quan Roberson reassumed his starting role after he suffered a season-ending injury last year. However, he hasn't been able to jumpstart the offense.
The Huskies are 126th in scoring offense at 15 points per game and 120th at 4.8 yards per play. They're also 120th in Passing Success Rate.
The bright spot offensively has been the running game, as UConn ranks 31st in Rushing Explosiveness. Running backs Devontae Houston and Victor Rosa are both averaging nearly five yards per carry or more.
Rosa has the duo's two rushing touchdowns, including a 71-yarder against NC State. However, the Huskies rank just 114th in Rushing Success Rate.
Clemson ran for 211 yards against Duke and the Blue Devils rank 106th in Line Yards and 116th in Rushing Success Rate. Establishing the running game will be UConn's best path for pulling off an upset.
However, it may have to abandon that strategy if it falls behind early.
Stopping Duke's running could also prove to be problematic for UConn. It ranks 109th in Rushing Success Rate defensively, and it allowed 459 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns in its first two games.
NC State quarterback Brennan Armstrong ran for 96 yards and two touchdowns, while Georgia State quarterback ran for 142 yards and a score.
With a running quarterback like Leonard on the other side this week, UConn will have to be better when it comes to keeping the opposing QB in the pocket.
Duke vs UConn
Betting Pick & Prediction
Duke and UConn are two teams that want to run the football. That means this may be a game where we have a running clock.
Duke is the team that I expect to have more success in doing so. If the Blue Devils control the game like I expect, they should have a comfortable lead in the fourth quarter and may take their foot off the gas. They have scored just 14 points in the fourth quarter of their blowout wins over the last two weeks.
Duke is allowing just 9.3 points this season and even when UConn is successful moving the ball in this game, those possessions still may not result in points.
Duke is 13th in FBS in Finishing Drives this season, and it has also allowed just four scores in red zone opportunities to rank fourth nationally in red zone defense.
UConn may not score more than 10 points in this game, which will put the onus on Duke to do most of the scoring to clear the total.
At 45.5, I have to go with the under here with 45 being a key number.
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