Tennessee vs Georgia Picks, Prediction & Odds | Saturday SEC Betting Guide
David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Georgia running back Daijun Edwards.
Tennessee vs Georgia Odds
Nearly 250 miles of state highway and the Great Smoky Mountains separate one of the greatest rivalries in college football in Georgia vs. Tennessee.
Georgia leads the all-time series against Tennessee, 27-23-2. The Bulldogs have won each of the past six games by at least two touchdowns, holding the Volunteers to 21 points or less in each iteration.
Georgia head coach Kirby Smart knows what's needed to win on the road in a tough environment like Neyland Stadium, indicating that establishing the rush is the key.
While the Bulldogs aim for a third consecutive National Championship, the Volunteers are looking to regroup after an abominable road trip to Missouri. Tennessee managed just a single touchdown in the loss, giving up 530 yards of offense to a Tigers team dealing with injuries.
Now, head coach Josh Heupel must rebound with an embattled quarterback right as the fanbase is ready to move on to the next signal-caller on the depth chart.
Let's take a look at the Tennessee vs. Georgia odds and make a prediction in our college football betting preview for Saturday, November 18.
A rout at the hands of Missouri has left Tennessee fans, coaches and players in a state of confusion. The Volunteers were peaking in SEC play with victories over Kentucky and Texas A&M, as no hangover lingered from a double-digit loss to Alabama.
Despite producing multiple methodical and explosive drives against Missouri, the Volunteers did not generate a single point from a drive that ended scoring position.
Injuries are a part of the equation for Heupel, as Tennessee will lose one of its most explosive targets for the remainder of the season in Dont'e Thornton Jr.
Great throw. Great catch.
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 11, 2023
While the offense was paralyzed by inefficiency against Missouri, the defense should also take the blame. The Vols' stop unit allowed 13 explosives, as Missouri gained nearly double the national average in available yards at 81%.
Although Tennessee produced eight tackles for loss and three pressures, Missouri converted 11 of its 17 third downs at an average distance of six yards to go.
Heupel has expressed the need to get back to establishing a rush, an area where Tennessee ranks top-40 in Success Rate, Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
The Volunteers have been above the national average with inside zone and power concepts behind an offensive line that ranks 13th in contact at the line of scrimmage.
The Bulldogs continue to torment opposing SEC teams, as a guaranteed trip to Atlanta for the conference championship did nothing to curb a 52-point effort against Ole Miss.
Georgia has been firing on all cylinders since tight end Brock Bowers went down with injury and wide receiver Ladd McConkey returned to full strength in Week 7.
Offensive coordinator Mike Bobo calls an offense that's top-15 in Success Rate and generates quality drives at the third-highest rate in FBS.
Beck may not have the yards or touchdowns to receive an invitation to New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony, but the current version of the Georgia offense can win the national title.
The Bulldogs' Success Rate and Expected Points per Play numbers have been some of the best in the nation against Cover 1 and Cover 3, and there's a low probability they make a negative play against quarters coverage.
Georgia has also dominated the line of scrimmage in recent games, generating a 77% Success Rate in 35 rushing attempts against Ole Miss. The Rebels allowed Georgia to average 8.6 yards per play on rushing attempts, with Kendall Milton and Daijun Edwards receiving the most carries.
The Bulldogs have been elite in terms of Success Rate and explosives with inside and outside zone.
The Georgia defense has shed so many names from the two-deep depth chart to the NFL over the past five years. However, recruiting has replenished the roster yearly, as veteran linebacker Smael Mondon Jr. leads the team in pressures and tackles.
Georgia is a top-10 team against the pass in any respective statistic, running a heavy amount of quarters and shutting down opponents in Cover 1.
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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia and Tennessee match up statistically:
Georgia Offense vs. Tennessee Defense
Tennessee Offense vs. Georgia Defense
Pace of Play / Other
|Special Teams SP+||8||38|
|Seconds per Play||29.0 (103)||21.6 (4)|
|Rush Rate||49.7% (83)||54.7% (50)|
Tennessee vs Georgia
Pick & Prediction
Both head coaches have expressed the need to establish the run in this game.
Georgia wants to eliminate the crowd and control the line of scrimmage in its last SEC regular season game.
Tennessee, meanwhile, wants to establish an identity on the ground, presumably to take pressure off quarterback Joe Milton. The sixth-year senior has not produced passing numbers at the level of Hendon Hooker from a year ago, and now the fan base is clamoring for freshman Nico Iamaleava to take over.
The issue for Tennessee in establishing the run is the methodology. The Volunteers run a heavy amount of inside zone and power. Both of those concepts have been fruitless when utilized by other rushing offenses against Georgia's front seven.
Where the Bulldogs struggle is outside the tackle box, primarily against teams that specialize in outside zone.
If there's good news on the passing front for Tennessee, Milton has been above the national average in Success Rate against Georgia's most-used secondary package of quarters.
On the flip side, the Tennessee defensive front has been equally fantastic against inside and outside zone. Georgia will look to establish the run against a Vols front that ranks 11th in Success Rate and limiting explosives against the rush.
With both teams looking to establish the rush against defenses that specialize in shutting down their run concepts, the under is certainly worth an investment.
The Action Network projection places Georgia at -8.5, giving the smallest edge in the market to Tennessee.
Considering Georgia's current warpath matches that of its previous two national title teams, look to make a play on the first-half and full-game total.