UNLV vs Kansas Odds, Prediction & Pick | Guaranteed Rate Bowl Betting Preview
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UNLV vs Kansas Odds
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 65 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 65 -110o / -110u | -300 |
The Guaranteed Rate Bowl will feature one of the most appealing offenses in college football, as bowl season kicks off its post-Christmas games.
This game will be played in another MLB ballpark, coming from Chase Field in Phoenix.
The bowl has changed names several times since its previous editions as the famous original Cheez-It Bowl, Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl and Domino's Pizza Bowl. Kansas won its only trip in this game when it was the Insight Bowl in 2008. UNLV will make its first trip to the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, representing a Mountain West Conference that's 1-1 in the history of this specific bowl.
Head coach Barry Odom took over the UNLV job after serving as the Arkansas defensive coordinator for a number of years.
Odom's first order of business was to hire an offensive coordinator. Bobby Petrino landed that role before Texas A&M swept the coach to College Station. Odom was quick to move to one of the youngest offensive minds in college football in Brennan Marion, the inventor of the GoGo offense.
Kansas is a team in transition as well, as Lance Leipold was hired before the 2021 season. This will be Leipold's second consecutive bowl after a thriller with Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl a year ago.
The winning nature of the reborn Jayhawks has come at a price in the coaching staff, as offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has moved on to take the same position with Penn State. Leipold made an immediate hire by bringing in Jeff Grimes, one of the most respected offensive minds in college football who previously worked at LSU, Baylor and BYU.
There will be no shortage of offensive fireworks in the game originally known as the Copper Bowl.
There may not be a more appealing offense to watch than that of the Rebels.
Much like Kansas, Marion wants to confuse opposing defenses with heavy pre-snap motion. UNLV has been known to show nearly every formation a person could find in a college football video game, pivoting between two tight ends, two running backs and an empty backfield from down to down.
Led by freshman quarterback Jayden Maiava, the UNLV offense has been absolutely thrilling to watch.
UNLV (2023) Go-Go Offense is some fun stuff.
Frontside Pin & Pull.
Outside Zone footwork.
H-lead.
Extra beef stacked in I-formation behind BST. pic.twitter.com/U2gP3YuZbf
— Last of the Fullbacks (@TheLastFullback) December 5, 2023
Maiava took over as the starter in week 4 against UTEP, ending the season with 14 touchdowns to just eight interceptions. The running back trio of Vincent Davis, Jai'Den Thomas and Donavyn Lester combined for 34 runs exceeding 10 yards.
While UNLV is a top-10 rush explosive unit, the consistency came through the air. The Rebels ranked 25th in Passing Success Rate and 27th in on-target rate.
The offense had to supply plenty of points to help out a defense that struggled in Mountain West action. UNLV's three-man front pivoted between nickel and dime packages, ranking a lowly 126th in Defensive Passing Success Rate.
Opposing offenses found plenty of success in standard downs against a defense that fell outside of the top 100 in Havoc.
UNLV also faces the loss of one of its most productive edge rushers in Zavier Carter, as the transfer portal gobbled up his 21 pressures.
Kotelnicki's absence shouldn't change the offensive play-calling in this bowl game. Leipold stated that Grimes' hiring will make for an easy transition because there won't be changes in terms of "terminology, philosophies or schemes."
Kansas prefers to rush at a 60% ratio, using outside zone and counter concepts. Both schemes have been successful this season, but the usage of counter has created an explosives play on 25% of attempts.
Devin Neal is in store for a HUGE season💨
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 2, 2023
Running back Devin Neal and quarterback Jason Bean have been lethal in counter concepts, as Kansas uses one of the heaviest amounts of pre-snap motion in the nation.
The Jayhawks rank top-25 in nearly every advanced offensive analytic, including broken tackles created and pass explosives.
The defense is a continued work in progress under coordinator Brian Borland.
The personnel changes between a 3-2-6 and 2-4-5 depending on down and distance, creating a focus on limiting the explosive pass.
However, opposing offenses have generated a high amount of rushing explosives on the Jayhawks. Kansas finished outside the top 100 in Defensive Quality Drives and Finishing Drives, opting to rely on Havoc and quarters coverage to prevent offenses from scoring quickly.
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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UNLV and Kansas match up statistically:
Kansas Offense vs UNLV Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 17 | 52 | |
| Line Yards | 7 | 79 | |
| Pass Success | 9 | 126 | |
| Havoc | 27 | 24 | |
| Finishing Drives | 28 | 88 | |
| Quality Drives | 14 | 53 |
UNLV Offense vs Kansas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 99 | 109 | |
| Line Yards | 68 | 99 | |
| Pass Success | 25 | 52 | |
| Havoc | 59 | 6 | |
| Finishing Drives | 35 | 106 | |
| Quality Drives | 20 | 100 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 91 | 48 |
| PFF Coverage | 25 | 112 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 52 | 6 |
| Middle 8 | 15 | 29 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.4 (111) | 25.1 (29) |
| Rush Rate | 61.9% (10) | 59.4% (27) |
UNLV vs Kansas
Pick, Prediction
The only guarantee in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl is two dynamic offenses taking advantage of subpar defenses.
With a much tougher strength of schedule, Kansas has extreme offensive advantages in the passing game. KU and its rank of 12th in pass explosives will face a UNLV defense that's 127th in passing EPA.
With dominant numbers in Stuff Rate and explosives at the second level, the Jayhawks will also be able to run at will. Not only does Kansas generate a heavy amount of explosives from outside zone, but UNLV also has one of the lowest efficiency rates at protecting the edge against that exact rush concept.
These same advantages exist for UNLV's offense, which uses inside and outside zone with multiple tight ends and running backs. Kansas finished the season 109th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate while also allowing a high amount of explosives.
Both Borland and UNLV defensive coordinator Mike Scherer are sure to struggle with instructing defenders on how to handle heavy pre-snap motion.
Considering bowl teams on long layoffs struggle to tackle in the first few series of games, look for plenty of points in the first half of the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.
Pick: First-Half Over 34
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