Kent State vs Bowling Green Odds, Predictions: Falcons to Down Flashes?
Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Bowling Green running back Nick Mosley.
Kent State vs Bowling Green Odds
| Kent State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
Two midweek MACtion teams headed in opposite directions will compete on Wednesday night as Bowling Green hosts Kent State.
The Golden Flashes had high hopes of winning the MAC East after entering the season as the favorite. They've lost all five games away from home this season, including both conference games against Toledo and Miami (Ohio).
A rush-heavy offense dubbed "Flash Fast" hasn't found much success moving the chains. After recent trips to the Idaho Potato Bowl and Frisco Bowl, head coach Sean Lewis must win out to have any hopes of playing in the postseason.
Bowling Green football is the story of the MAC West Division. The Falcons haven't played in the postseason since 2015, sitting just one game shy of a bowl trip.
With a previous loss to Buffalo and a pending game against Ohio, Bowling Green will need to win out and get some help to compete for the MAC Championship.
The defense continues to be the backbone of the team, as a top rank in pass rush has kept the Falcons in plenty of games.
Kent State Golden Flashes
The Golden Flashes have lost four of their last six games, as the highly successful offensive unit from seasons past has stumbled in 2022.
Quarterback Collin Schlee has twice as many touchdowns as interceptions, but six fumbles on the season have killed numerous scoring drives. Schlee loves to run, as 192 of his 462 rushing yards have come from designed runs.
There hasn’t been any explosiveness on the offense, as running back Marquez Cooper averages just 2.8 yards after contact.
The loss of wide receiver Dante Cephas to injury in Week 8 lingered into a midweek MACtion loss to Ball State last week. Cephas, who leads the team with 72 targets, is questionable to return with what has been called a “lower-body injury.”
The Golden Flashes have been destroyed against the pass with coverage and Success Rate rankings in the bottom 15. Kent State doesn't generate Havoc and has been one of the worst teams when it comes to getting opponents into passing downs.
Safety Nico Bolden leads the Flashes in tackles along with missed tackles.
Ball State and Akron are far from offensive juggernauts, but each team still generated 450 yards of offense in recent action against Kent State.
Bowling Green Falcons
The defense kept Bowling Green in the win column against a Western Michigan team searching for offense. The clear scoring bonanza ended at 22 total points as the Falcons recorded five tackles for loss.
The Broncos did have success pushing drives into scoring opportunities, but they averaged just two points on five drives extending beyond the 40-yard line.
The Falcons are near dead last in Finishing Drives, making the defensive stops against Western Michigan an uncharacteristic victory.
Opponents have been successful in running the ball against BGSU, as the Falcons once again rank near dead last in FBS in Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
The strength of the defense comes into play with pass breakups at the cornerback position.
Quarterback Matt McDonald loves to throw downfield, bringing a career-low in turnover-worthy play rate into this game. The fourth-year quarterback has nearly as many pass attempts 20 yards down the field as behind the line of scrimmage.
Nine different targets recorded a reception against Western Michigan, but it was a special teams play that set up the lone touchdown of the game. Bowling Green ranks bottom-15 in Special Teams SP+, but an 83-yard kickoff return by Ta’ron Keith set up an easy three-play touchdown drive.
Kent State vs Bowling Green Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kent State and Bowling Green match up statistically:
Kent State Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 49 | 14 | |
| Line Yards | 43 | 123 | |
| Pass Success | 44 | 96 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 30 | 11 | |
| Havoc | 78 | 46 | |
| Finishing Drives | 95 | 103 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Bowling Green Offense vs. Kent State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 89 | 87 |  |
| Line Yards | 112 | 86 | |
| Pass Success | 102 | 125 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 98 | 66 | |
| Havoc | 108 | 112 | |
| Finishing Drives | 121 | 91 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 74 | 82 |
| PFF Coverage | 110 | 51 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 91 | 119 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.5 (10) | 26.5 (68) |
| Rush Rate | 61.0% (18) | 50.4% (87) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Kent State vs Bowling Green Betting Pick
Kent State will continue to play "Flash Fast," but Cephas' health is paramount. A third of Schlee’s targets have gone to his star wide receiver, with only one other player recording more than 23 targets on the season.
Generally, any position outside of quarterback doesn't affect the point spread. But with how the Flashes use Cephas, there's a minimum two-point swing depending on his status.
Ball State ranked top-30 in Defensive Pass Expected Points last week, and now Schlee will have to face a coverage unit that limits the explosive pass as well.
Bowling Green may also have one of the best defensive lines in the MAC, ranking 14th in Rushing Success Rate and 11th in pass rush.
Action Network's projection makes this game a pick'em with Cephas healthy.
While any underdog number for Bowling Green is actionable, the under is also worthy of attention if the Golden Flashes are missing their biggest weapon.
Pick: Bowling Green PK or Better ⋅ Under 48 or Better |
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