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Liberty vs Arkansas Odds, Picks: Why This Number is Too High

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Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: Liberty head coach Hugh Freeze.

Liberty vs Arkansas Odds

Saturday, Nov. 5
4 p.m. ET
SEC Network
Liberty Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+14.5
-115
61.5
-110o / -110u
+480
Arkansas Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-14.5
-105
61.5
-110o / -110u
-645
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Liberty looks to build upon its five-game win streak as it takes on SEC opponent Arkansas.

The Flames own a 7-1 record on the season after a 27-point victory over BYU. Their sole loss came by just one point to Wake Forest in early September.

Arkansas is coming fresh off a victory over Auburn, which led to the firing of Tigers head coach Bryan Harsin. It’s a bit ironic that the Razorbacks will now match up against the potential top candidate to take over the Auburn job in Liberty’s Hugh Freeze.

The Hogs won their first three games of the season before dropping three straight in SEC play. They’re now coming off of back-to-back victories over two underperforming programs and look to put together another win streak to end the season.

Is two touchdowns too much for Arkansas to be laying in this matchup with Liberty?  


Liberty Flames

Which Liberty team is going to show up on Saturday? Is it the team that struggled with Akron and Gardner Webb, or the group that lost to Wake Forest by one and beat BYU by 27?

I lean toward the latter, as the Flames have played to the level of their competition this season.

Liberty is averaging 33 points and 437 yards of total offense this year. It’s coming off of its best performance of the season — a dominant 41-14 victory over BYU. It totaled nearly 550 yards of total offense while averaging 8.5 yards per pass attempt and 6.3 yards per carry.

The Flames have been without starting quarterback Charlie Brewer, who has been out since the opening game of the season. The journeyman quarterback is set to return this week, and though he has had his fair share of struggles in the past, he’s used to facing Power Five defenses.

With a relatively easy strength of schedule to this point, the Flames defense ranks among the top in the Group of Five. The defense ranks 10th in Defensive Success Rate and 17th in Line Yards.

The Flames are allowing just 3.7 yards per carry, and the front seven will be able to hold its own against a strong Arkansas rushing attack.  

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Arkansas Razorbacks

Arkansas is coming off of a two-game win streak over BYU and Auburn, two programs that have been struggling of late. Now, it has a test against a strong Group of Five program that has been thriving of late.

The Razorbacks offense has been consistent, averaging nearly 480 yards of total offense and 330 points per game against FBS foes. The rushing attack has been dominant, putting up 5.1 yards per carry behind a group that rushes the ball 50 times per game, the fourth-highest mark in the country.

Running back Raheim Sanders has been dominant behind the run-heavy offense, averaging 6.7 yards per carry while punching in seven touchdowns. He’s coming off of a huge game against BYU, where he rushed for 171 yards on just 16 carries (10.7 yards per carry).

Quarterback KJ Jefferson returned last week from a head injury and completed 16-of-24 passes for 234 yards and a touchdown. Jefferson has quietly put together a fantastic season, tossing 15 touchdowns to only one interception on the year. He’s also found the end zone an additional six times with his legs.

But the Razorbacks defense has been a major disappointment this season, allowing 33 points and 465 yards to opponents, both ranking outside the top 100 nationally.

The group has held only one opponent to less than 400 yards of total offense this season. Even Missouri State put up 27 points and 409 yards in its matchup against this defense.


Liberty vs Arkansas Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Liberty and Arkansas match up statistically:

Liberty Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 88 118
Line Yards 75 105
Pass Success 100 63
Pass Blocking** 36 54
Havoc 115 79
Finishing Drives 74 61
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Arkansas Offense vs. Liberty Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 21 10
Line Yards 13 17
Pass Success 42 9
Pass Blocking** 9 67
Havoc 33 4
Finishing Drives 44 24
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 61 90
PFF Coverage 53 120
SP+ Special Teams 94 68
Seconds per Play 26.0 (56) 23.6 (18)
Rush Rate 58.2% (33) 63.7% (11)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Liberty vs Arkansas Betting Pick

Liberty has largely played to the level of its competition this season, and that trend will likely continue in this matchup.

The Flames return their starting quarterback in Brewer, and that will provide a nice boost for an offense that has already been solid this season.

They will now match up against a Razorback defense that has been horrid all season. The Hogs have given up 6.5 yards per play to FBS opponents, which ranks 119th in the nation. They also haven’t slowed down the run, allowing 4.7 yards per carry while ranking 118th in rushing Success Rate.

Arkansas hasn’t been much better defending the pass, allowing 8.6 yards per pass attempt (117th). The secondary ranks 120th in coverage, according to PFF.

Liberty is going to be able to move the ball at will in this matchup. And the Flames have the talent in the front seven to slow down a Hogs’ rushing attack that runs the ball 50 times per game.

This number is too high in this matchup, so I’m taking the points with Liberty. It wouldn’t shock me to see Freeze’s squad pull off the upset in this matchup.

Pick: Liberty +14.5 ⋅ Play to +13

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