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The Miami Hurricanes take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend, Indiana, on Saturday, Nov. 7. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.
Notre Dame is favored by -5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -205. Miami, meanwhile, enters as a +5.5 underdog and is +168 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/udner sits at 57.5 total points.
Here’s my Miami vs. Notre Dame prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 7.
Miami vs Notre Dame Prediction
- Miami vs. Notre Dame Pick: Notre Dame -5.5 or Better · CJ Carr 21+ Completions (-118) · Jaden Greenhouse Over 40.5 Yards
My Notre Dame vs. Miami best bet is on the Fighting Irish to cover the spread, quarterback CJ Carr to complete at least 21 passes and wide receiver Jaden Greathouse to record at least 41 receiving yards. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Miami vs Notre Dame Odds
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 57.5 -114o / -106u | +168 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 57.5 -114o / -106u | -205 |
- Miami vs Notre Dame point spread: Notre Dame -5.5 (-110 ), Miami +5.5 (-110)
- Miami vs Notre Dame over/under: 57.5 (-114o / -106u)
- Miami vs Notre Dame moneyline: Miami +168, Notre Dame -205
Miami vs Notre Dame College Football Preview
Miami Hurricanes Betting Preview: Top-Tier Offense
There might not be a better offense in college football than the Miami Hurricanes.
Heisman-contending quarterback Darian Mensah has been near flawless this season, posting a turnover-worthy play in just two games this season.
The former Duke and Tulane signal-caller stands at 25 touchdowns to just a single interception, a thriving ratio thanks to one of the most dangerous weapons in FBS, slot Malachi Toney.
The second-year receiver has 83 targets with more than 1,000 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns.
However, Toney will have surgery on his ankle and miss this game.
The defense is where Miami has seen a struggle under coordinator Corey Hetherman. The Canes rank 132nd in tackle grading, per PFF, and an uncharacteristic 96th in generating Havoc.
The defensive line grades out as one of the best in creating a pass rush, but the back of the 4-2-5 has presented issues in pass coverage. Miami ranks 111th in coverage grading and 105th in passing down Success Rate allowed.
Although the Hurricanes are undefeated, covering efforts from Wake Forest, Florida State and Wake Forest have all come via the passing attack.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Preview: Looking for an Identity
Although Notre Dame picked up a comfortable victory over Navy, the Irish struggled to find an offensive rhythm in the first half.
Head coach Marcus Freeman oversees an offense that's sixth in first-half scoring, as the Notre Dame offense woke up in the second half for 21 points.
Both Nolan James Jr. and Jonaz Walton have been the primary contributors to a ground game that ranks top-15 in Success Rate. James has seen an increase in yardage over four straight games, logging more than 100 yards on nine carries against Navy.
The biggest Havoc-maker on the defense returned after an ejection during the BYU game. Edge Boubacar Traore should be well rested after missing parts of the last two games, entering Week 10 with 22 pressures on the season.
Defensive coordinator Chris Ash has produced one of the best rush-stopping units while ranking ninth in PFF coverage grading.
A heavy amount of Cover 1 hasn't exposed Notre Dame in the explosives department, as the Irish have allowed just six rushing attempts that exceeded 20 yards.
Miami vs Notre Dame Pick, Betting Analysis
There's no expectation that Miami's defense will be able to stop Notre Dame's passing attack, led by quarterback CJ Carr.
The Hurricanes have struggled against ACC quarterbacks with low national rankings.
UNC's Billy Edwards Jr. and Florida State's Ashton Daniels combined for eight touchdowns against the Canes. Clemson's Tait Reynolds also exceeded his season high by a mile, posting 294 passing yards against Miami.
The issue for the Hurricanes comes in the middle of the defense, as teams have exploited the pass mid-range between the hash marks.
A number of Miami starters have bottom-P4 grades in coverage, including linebacker Mohamed Toure, cornerback Omar Thornton and a pair of safeties in Zechariah Poyser and JJ Dunnigan.
Carr should have success throwing over the middle, particularly to slot Jaden Greathouse. More than 50% of Greathouse's targets have come from 0-9 yards between the hashes.
The question remains whether the Notre Dame defense has the capability to stop a Miami offense that's the best in FBS in terms of Passing Success Rate.
The Irish should have success limiting running back Mark Fletcher Jr., as Notre Dame produces a negative EPA against teams using man, power and inside zone run concepts.
The key to the pass defense comes from the high safety position with Adon Shuler and Luke Talich. Notre Dame has shutdown cornerbacks, none better than Jayden Sanders and Leonard Moore, who have a combined 11 forced incompletions.
Shuler and Talich will be responsible for covering Toney over the middle and limiting missed tackles. Talich ranks as the seventh-best defender in space, missing five tackles all season.
There's no doubt Miami will respond on offense, but the Notre Dame offense will have success picking apart the middle of the Hurricanes' pass coverage.
Both teams have the numbers to suggest multiple drives will end in scoring position, but Notre Dame ranks as the best FBS offense in terms of Finishing Drives.
Look for Miami's consistent issues against the pass — and its bottom-10 tackle grade — to be the difference in South Bend.
Pick: Notre Dame -5.5 or Better · CJ Carr 21+ Completions (-118) · Jaden Greenhouse Over 40.5 Yards
Miami vs Notre Dame Betting Trends
