NCAAF Odds, Predictions for Miami (OH) vs. Kent State

Both Miami (OH) and Kent State will be kicking off their MAC schedules in Week 5.

Miami (OH) is considered one of the favorites to win the conference, while Kent State is the lowest-rated team in FBS by SP+.

However, some of the underlying numbers on these two teams are heavily influenced by the schedules they've faced, leaving an opportunity to grab some potential value.

Keep reading to see my preview for Miami (OH) vs. Kent State, as well as my best bet on this game.

Miami (OH) has admittedly been hard for me to peg down this year. I have written about the RedHawks on a couple of occasions and been wrong both times.

In terms of Success Rate, the RedHawks haven’t been anything special. They rank 46th in Success Rate and 47th in Finishing Drives. However, they have been one of the most explosive offenses in college football. Miami (OH) ranks ninth in overall Explosiveness and sixth in Passing Explosiveness.

The RedHawks tend to run the ball more than they pass, doing so 56% of the time. They rank 55th in Rushing Success Rate compared to 53rd when passing.

Behind the arm of Brett Gabbert, this certainly has been an impressive offensive unit.

This defense grades out at 73rd in SP+, but it's struggled at times this season. Overall, the RedHawks' defense is 105th in Success Rate and 80th in Finishing Drives, despite having the second-best average starting field position.

The Miami (OH) rushing defense has been fine — ranking 72nd in Success Rate — but the passing defense has been an issue to say the least. The RedHawks rank 124th in Passing Success Rate against and 121st in passing PPA Allowed.

Kent State typically is a heavy rushing team, which would play into Miami (OH)'s strengths if it follows that game plan.

Kent State has struggled this year, to put it lightly. The Golden Flashes have yet to exceed 10 points in a game against an FBS opponent.

I originally thought they were showing signs of turning the corner offensively, but the Golden Flashes then went out and were shellacked by the Bulldogs last week, losing 53-10.

On the year, this team ranks 119th in Offensive Success Rate. The Flashes run the ball at the 10th-highest rate in the country, but haven't been good at it.

When rushing the ball, Kent State ranks 124th in Success Rate and 113rd in PPA. Through the air, the Flashes are at least 72nd in Success Rate, but are still only 113th in PPA.

Things have been much worse defensively for Kent State. This team ranks 126th in Defensive Success Rate and Finishing Drives.

The Flashes may be a bit better than these surface-level numbers appear, as they've faced a tough schedule of offenses thus far. However, this defense is still ranked just 96th in SP+.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami (OH) and Kent State match up statistically:

Miami (OH) Offense vs. Kent State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	54	113
Line Yards	33	119
Pass Success	53	127
Havoc	54	124
Finishing Drives	49	126
Quality Drives	30	126

Kent State Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	124	68
Line Yards	104	116
Pass Success	72	124
Havoc	109	83
Finishing Drives	97	78
Quality Drives	112	92

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	108	128
PFF Coverage	77	108
Special Teams SP+	3	90
Middle 8	108	126
Seconds per Play	29.3 (106)	29.0 (102)
Rush Rate	60.0% (33)	67.1% (11)

Kent State’s offense hasn't produced all year, and I don’t think that will change too much here.

The Golden Flashes’ strength of running the ball should be neutralized by Miami's rushing defense.

On the other side, Miami’s offense has relied upon big plays all season to generate its offense, and this Kent State defense has been putrid.

However, this week, I think we see Kent State’s defense have one of its best games of the season against a Miami (OH) team that has a weaker offense than most units the Golden Flashes have faced so far in 2023.

To help matters here, Miami (OH) ranks 126th in seconds per play while Kent State is 93rd.

I believe that this game will end up being played at a slow pace, with neither team having too much luck scoring. That will lead to this matchup going under its current total of 48.5.

Pick: Under 48.5 Points