College Football Odds, Pick for Michigan State vs Indiana: Target This Big Ten Total
Via Adam Ruff/Getty Images. Pictured: Michigan State Spartans quarterback Noah Kim (10) follows through on a pass during a college football game between the Michigan State Spartans and Washington Huskies on September 16, 2023 at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, MI.
Michigan State Spartans vs Indiana Hoosiers Odds
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -185 |
Let's dive into our college football odds for Michigan State vs. Indiana and make a pick for Saturday, November 18.
The Michigan State Spartans and Indiana Hoosiers both enter this game at 3-7 on the season.
Both teams have had tough seasons, but at least the Hoosiers are showing some signs of improvement. After a 2-6 start, Indiana upset Wisconsin at home and then put up 45 points against Illinois. It was the first time it had scored more than 25 points against a power five opponent all season.
As for the Spartans, despite owning a record of 3-7, their off-field problems are somehow greater than their troubles on the field.
Honestly, I'm impressed Michigan State has managed to win three games with all the distractions going on around them. The Spartans are also coming off a win and a loss, but their loss was a 38-3 drubbing at the hands of the Buckeyes. However, their win over Nebraska was a nice victory during a tough season.
I don't know where to start with the Michigan State Spartans, except the entire 2021 MSU coaching staff needs to write Kenneth Walker an effusive thank you letter. Just two years removed from having the most dominant rushing attack in the country, the Spartans are lucky if they fall forward for a yard when they run the ball now.
In fact, I think you would be hard pressed to find a worse power five rushing attack this season. Michigan State ranks 132nd in total rushing ppa, 124th in rushing explosiveness and 117th in rushing success rate. That is not great.
Unfortunately, their passing attack is only marginally better. The Spartans rank 98th in total passing ppa, 103rd in passing success rate and 96th in rushing explosiveness. This is all contributing to their atrocious overall metrics: 116th in success rate, 114th in explosiveness, 125th in points per opportunity and 109th in havoc allowed.
Michigan State's offense is not efficient, explosive, or good at scoring in opponent's territory. They also struggle both running and throwing the ball. NOT a recipe for offensive fireworks.
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The Indiana Hoosiers are having a rough season. Escaping Akron with a two-point victory at home was the highlight until their win over Wisconsin two weeks ago, as well as an overtime loss is another bright spot. Not great. The disappointment driver? The offense (again).
The Hoosiers rank 90th in Success Rate, 112th in Explosiveness, 93rd in Havoc Allowed and 127th in Points per Opportunity.
If you read our IU vs ILL single game guide from last week, you would have seen that the Hoosiers were more efficient rushing than passing on the season, however after just one week this has flipped. The Hoosiers have jumped up to 54th in passing success rate after just one week, however they still rank 80th in total passing ppa and 109th in passing explosiveness.
Their run game is not mediocre, it is just bad. The Hoosiers rank 123rd in rushing success rate, 121st in rushing total ppa and 110th in rushing explosiveness. So the question is: is what we saw against Illinois an outlier or the true Indiana offense? My money is firmly on outlier performance.
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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan State and Indiana match up statistically:
Michigan State Offense vs. Indiana Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 117 | 126 | |
| Line Yards | 116 | 121 | |
| Pass Success | 102 | 119 | |
| Havoc | 94 | 67 | |
| Finishing Drives | 125 | 90 | |
| Quality Drives | 116 | 97 |
Indiana Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 123 | 56 | |
| Line Yards | 51 | 56 | |
| Pass Success | 54 | 93 | |
| Havoc | 66 | 49 | |
| Finishing Drives | 127 | 74 | |
| Quality Drives | 71 | 76 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 71 | 19 |
| PFF Coverage | 128 | 93 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 20 | 59 |
| Middle 8 | 102 | 132 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.9 (67) | 27.2 (73) |
| Rush Rate | 49.2% (95) | 53.9% (70) |
Michigan State vs Indiana
Betting Pick & Prediction
I think that it was somewhat obvious where this pick was going, but at 47 points I am more than happy to take the under between two inept offenses.
Pick: Under 47
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