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The Michigan State Spartans take on the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor, Michigan, on Saturday, Nov. 7. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Michigan is favored by 13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -690. Michigan State, meanwhile, enters as a 13.5-point underdog and is +500 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 39.5 total points (-105 / -115).
Here’s my Michigan State vs. Michigan prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 7.
Michigan State vs Michigan Predictions, Pick
- Michigan State vs. Michigan Pick: Michigan -13.5 (Play to -14)
My Michigan vs. Michigan State best bet is on the Wolverines to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Michigan State vs Michigan Odds, Spread, Line, Over/Under
| Michigan St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -102 | 39.5 -115o / -105u | +500 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -120 | 39.5 -115o / -105u | -690 |
- Michigan State vs Michigan point spread: Michigan State +13.5 (-102), Michigan -13.5 (-120)
- Michigan State vs Michigan over/under: 39.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Michigan State vs Michigan moneyline: Michigan State +500, Michigan -690
Michigan State vs Michigan Game Preview
Michigan State Spartans Betting Trends
Since the start of the regular season, injuries have plagued Michigan State, making it nearly impossible for the Spartans to be competitive.
Not only are they down to their fourth-string running back, but quarterback Alessio Milivojevic is also currently listed as questionable on the injury report, potentially forcing Michigan State to rely on Leo Hannan or Kayd Coffman to run the offense.
In last week’s loss to UCLA, Coffman got the start but couldn't elevate the offense, completing just 40% of his passes.
While Hannan did eventually replace Coffman, the Spartans' backup QB didn't fare much better, with the duo both throwing an interception in their limited time on the field.
With injuries lingering over nearly every position on offense, the Spartans have been abysmal this season, entering Week 10 ranked outside the top 80 in Success Rate, Explosiveness, Finishing Drives and Havoc allowed.
Even if Milivojevic returns from injury, it’s tough to envision the hobbled quarterback suddenly turning the offense around while playing at less than 100%.
To make matters worse for Michigan State, the defense has also been unable to get into a groove, ranking well below league average in EPA Per Play allowed and Havoc.
While the Spartans can stop their opponents from rattling off an explosive play, the defense still struggles to hold them in front of the sticks, making it difficult to create an early out to get the ball back.
Michigan Wolverines Betting Trends
In his second true start under center, Tommy Carr put together a monster performance against Rutgers, throwing for 266 yards and one touchdown while completing 81.5% of his passes.
Carr was lethal with his arm, but he also gashed the Scarlet Knights' front seven on the ground, rushing for 54 yards and punching in two more scores with his legs.
Even with Carr adding some versatility to the offense, the Wolverines still haven't put it all together, ranking near the bottom of the board in Success Rate and Finishing Drives.
When Michigan gets into scoring position, points have come at a premium, averaging just 2.79 Points Per Opportunity.
The Wolverines have also regressed on the ground, plummeting to 103rd in Rush EPA Per Play.
With no fear of getting burnt over the top, opposing defenses can keep stacking the box at a high rate, giving them extra bodies in the trenches to help defend the run.
While the offense is still searching for an identity, the defense has been productive, heading into Saturday’s Big Ten tilt ranked in the top 15 in Success Rate allowed, Explosiveness allowed and PPA allowed.
That kind of defense can give Carr the support he needs to help pull away on the scoreboard and secure the win.
How To Bet My Michigan State vs Michigan Pick and Best Bet
When it comes to betting college football late in the year, motivation plays a big role in the handicap.
Even with Michigan and Michigan State already turning their sights toward the offseason, the heated rivalry will keep both teams motivated and help them brush aside any negative regression from sloppy play.
Unfortunately for the Spartans, their lack of offensive production will be on full display as they battle a defense averaging a 34.4% Success Rate allowed.
No matter who starts under center, Michigan State will struggle to cut the distance to gain in half while being held to minimal gains. Expect some three-and-outs here.
When on offense, Carr’s dual-threat ability will force the Spartans to make a decision: either spy their linebackers and leave their secondary on an island or drop their second level back and risk getting gashed by his legs.
Stretching out in coverage will also help create more room for running backs Savion Hiter and Jordan Marshall to exploit, increasing their chances of generating an explosive run once they break through the trenches.
With clear advantages on both sides of the ball, place a wager on Michigan to cover the spread at -13.5 with a stop point at the key number of -14.
If Michigan State’s team total ticks back up to a flat 14, diversify your risk by placing a separate wager on the under.
Pick: Michigan -13.5 (Play to -14)
Michigan State vs Michigan Betting Trends
