The Michigan Wolverines take on the USC Trojans in Los Angeles, CA, on Saturday, Oct. 11. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
USC is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. The total is set at 57.5 points.
Here’s my Michigan vs. USC prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 11.
Michigan vs USC Prediction
- Michigan vs. USC Pick: Over 58 or Better
My USC vs. Michigan best bet is on the over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Michigan vs USC Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
- Michigan vs USC Spread: USC -2.5, Michigan +2.5
- Michigan vs USC Over/Under: 57.5 Points
- Michigan vs USC Moneyline: Michigan +115, USC -135
Michigan vs USC College Football Betting Preview
Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview: Top Ground Attack
Michigan will take to the road in Big Ten play, looking to maintain an undefeated conference record. The Wolverines traveled to the West Coast just once in 2024, suffering a 10-point defeat to Washington.
The 2025 version of Michigan packs a better punch offensively, executing at a high level with zone read concepts between quarterback Bryce Underwood and running back Justice Haynes.
The former Alabama halfback is averaging 4.3 yards after first contact while forcing 20 missed tackles on 85 carries.
The ground attack has been the bread and butter for the Wolverines, as they're generating a top-35 rank in Line Yards and Success Rate.
Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has fielded a top-25 defense in nearly every statistical category. The Havoc-minded nickel defense can switch between man, quarters and Cover 3, while ranking second nationally in limiting rush explosives.
If there's a weakness, Michigan has allowed too many opponent drives to end with points. Twelve of 15 opponent red-zone attempts have ended in a score, allowing an average of 4.1 points in 20 opponents' possessions to cross the Michigan 40-yard line.
USC Trojans Betting Preview: Balanced and Potent Offense
Head coach Lincoln Riley continues to struggle in Big Ten conference road play away from the West Coast. Since the 2024 realignment, the Trojans are now 0-4 in conference games at least two time zones to the east.
USC will enjoy home cooking in the LA Coliseum during Week 7, led by one of the most potent offensive attacks in the nation. The balanced attack ranks top five of all FBS teams in rush efficiency, stuff rate, passing success rate and quality drives.
Quarterback Jayden Maiava has blazed up the Heisman charts, eclipsing 1,500 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and a six big-time throw performance against Illinois.
Defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn has observed a regression in 2-4-5 personnel, sitting outside the top 100 in rush efficiency and explosives allowed.
Linebacker Desman Stephens II and defensive interior Devan Thompkins have two of the lowest run defense grades, per PFF, as USC ranks 122nd in defensive line yards.
The schedule hasn't included elite rushing attacks from Michigan State, Purdue, Georgia Southern or Missouri State. Forty tackles for loss power a high Havoc grade, as linebacker Eric Gentry ranks 18th nationally with seven this season.
Michigan vs USC Pick, Betting Analysis
The Michigan offense should have plenty of success generating first downs and explosives from the rushing attack. The Wolverines have been excellent in an even distribution of inside and outside zone read concepts led by Underwood and Haynes.
USC has been one of the worst defenses in defending inside zone, bringing a low 39% Success Rate while allowing an explosive one of every five carries.
The USC offense will combat with plenty of success through the air, as Maiava has dominated quarters and Cover 3 secondaries.
The UNLV transfer quarterback has posted a 72% Success Rate against quarters, dominating opposing nickel defenses with hitch routes.
Wide receiver Makai Lemon has dominated in catches between zero and nine yards, catching 17-of-19 targets with an explosive 4.5 yards per route run.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for USC to be favored by 1.5, giving little value to a market that has bounced the Trojans from 2.5 to 3-point favorites.
The better investment could be on a total, where Michigan rush explosives and USC pass-catchers have the chance to get quick scores on the board.
Considering USC's rank (second in the nation) in Offensive Finishing Drives against a Michigan pass defense that's outside the top 50 in pass EPA allowed, these teams should light up the scoreboard often.
Pick: Over 58 or Better
Michigan vs USC Betting Trends
