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Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Odds, Picks, Prediction | NCAAF Betting Preview

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Odds, Picks, Prediction | NCAAF Betting Preview article feature image
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Justin Ford/Getty Images. Pictured: Ole Miss quarterback Jaxon Dart.

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Odds

Thursday, Nov. 24
7 p.m. ET
ESPN
Ole Miss Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-1.5
-115
63
-110o / -110u
-125
Mississippi State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+1.5
-105
63
-110o / -110u
+105
Updated odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Rivalry week often features a slew of high-profile games between top-25 teams. The average college football consumer knows the Egg Bowl always provides the highest form of entertainment.

The fallout of the game can be extreme like it was in 2019. That game dubbed “The Piss, the Miss and the Double Dismiss” saw the end of two coaching regimes and the beginning of Mike Leach and Lane Kiffin eras at Mississippi State and Ole Miss, respectively.

Ole Miss leads this series all-time at 64-45-6, as Kiffin has gotten the best of Leach over the previous two seasons.

Both Mississippi State and Ole Miss need wins to move up the bowl ladder of destinations. Our own Brett McMurphy’s latest bowl projections have the Bulldogs in the Las Vegas Bowl, with Ole Miss playing in the newly-branded Cheez-It Citrus Bowl.

Considering the Rebels are aware that Kiffin could be poached, this may be the last iteration of the Thanksgiving Egg Bowl between these two coaches.

BREAKING: #OleMiss HC Lane Kiffin plans to step down as the Rebels coach Friday and head to Auburn to become the Tigers next head coach, according to sources

Sources say the Tigers haven’t officially offered the job to anyone yet.

So Lane to Auburn is happening. Story soon.

— Jon Sokoloff (@JonSokoloff) November 22, 2022


Mississippi State Bulldogs

Leach is set to conclude his third season in Starkville with a third straight trip to a bowl game. Outside of winning the rivalry game, the Bulldogs look to secure a third-place finish in the SEC West with a tiebreaker over Ole Miss.

There have not been many surprises on the schedule for Mississippi State, which lost both games as an underdog and won seven of its nine games as a favorite. Every game in Starkville has gone over the total, while every road game has gone under.

Quarterback Will Rogers added a handful of touchdowns against East Tennessee State last week, giving the junior 32 scores against five interceptions.

Rogers has not committed a turnover-worthy play in the past two games that includes one against Georgia’s defense. The previous five games were choppy for the quarterback, as he threw nine turnover-worthy plays that resulted in a pair of interceptions against Auburn and Kentucky.

Leach’s Air Raid concept brings a 70% pass rate at a short average depth of target of six yards.

Four different skill-position players have at least 50 targets, including running back Jo’quavious Marks. Wide receiver Rara Thomas has been the most explosive target at 2.1 yards per route run.

Defensive coordinator Zach Arnett is in his third season of implementing the 3-3-5 scheme. State’s numbers against the rush and creating pressure on quarterbacks are generally depressed, but the Bulldogs defense has been top-25 in Early Downs Success Rate.

Top-40 ranks in coverage and Finishing Drives show that the Bulldogs are willing to give up the middle of the field before stiffening in opponent scoring opportunities.

Edge Tyrus Wheat is the name to watch on defense, creating nearly twice as many pressures as any other defender this season.

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Ole Miss Rebels

Long gone are the days of the Matt Corral run-pass option that give an even mix of plays to the ground and air. Quarterback Jaxson Dart is running the same formation, but the Rebels have increased to a 63% Rush Rate.

The two-headed monster of Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans have combined for 24 touchdowns and more than 2,200 rushing yards.

Both Judkins and Evans produce more than 3.5 yards after contact. Only five running backs in FBS have created more missed tackles than Judkins, putting a premium on tackling and Defensive Line Yards for the Bulldogs.

The issues begin when Ole Miss gets behind schedule, as the Rebels are a top-25 explosive team in standard downs but a bottom-25 explosive team in passing downs.

Dart has seen pressure in more than a third of his dropbacks this season, as his adjusted completion percentage drops 25%.

Considering the bar was low upon Kiffin’s arrival, the defense has continued to improve throughout the transition from DJ Durkin to Chris Partridge and Maurice Crum.

The Rebels have improved to become a top-40 pass rush team, also ranking top-10 in limiting rush explosiveness. The scheme run at Ole Miss can be light in the box, but the Rebels have excelled in limiting explosive plays.

Despite the improvement on defense, the red-zone execution has been poor. Ole Miss has fallen to 123rd in opponent red-zone scoring, allowing 37 of its 40 opponent attempts to end with points.

Ole Miss vs Mississippi State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ole Miss and Mississippi State match up statistically:

Mississippi State Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 28 82
Line Yards 36 84
Pass Success 31 78
Pass Blocking** 44 37
Havoc 28 63
Finishing Drives 22 65
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Ole Miss Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 11 54
Line Yards 24 70
Pass Success 41 26
Pass Blocking** 70 123
Havoc 65 60
Finishing Drives 47 39
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 55 63
PFF Coverage 36 57
SP+ Special Teams 69 34
Seconds per Play 25.3 (42) 20.7 (2)
Rush Rate 30.1% (130) 63.4% (9)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Ole Miss vs Mississippi State Predictions, Picks

The first handicap focuses on Mississippi State’s front seven stopping Ole Miss’ ground attack. Despite running a three-man front, the Bulldogs are top-30 in Stuff Rate.

The troubles come behind the line of scrimmage, as Mississippi State ranks 70th in Line Yards and 95th against the explosive rush. With a tackle rank of 55th nationally, the Bulldogs may stuff Judkins and Evans a half-dozen times while also allowing an equal number of explosive runs.

For Mississippi State to extend drives and take advantage of Ole Miss’ poor red-zone defense, Rogers must find his targets in short-range passing.

The Rebels have two defensive backs graded in the top 200 of coverage defenders, per PFF. Deantre Prince has been a quality cornerback this season, forcing seven pass breakups in a zone-heavy scheme. All eyes on the defense will be on the second-best defender, AJ Finley, who has taken more snaps at slot cornerback in the previous four games.

Action Network projects the Egg Bowl to favor Ole Miss by six points. Heavy steam has hit the market on Mississippi State in early wagering, as rumors of Kiffin’s move to Auburn have persisted.

The Bulldogs will give up explosives to Ole Miss’ running backs. But with a better third-down defense and red-zone numbers, the scoring will be light.

As for Mississippi State, the ability to burn zone coverage with short crossing routes puts an emphasis on Ole Miss’ tackling ability. The Rebels have been above average in limiting explosive plays, particularly in long down and distances.

This game will go down to the wire, but the Bulldogs possess the Stuff Rate needed to cash another under on the road. Look for Ole Miss at a field goal or less, as both teams will scramble for points in the first half.

Picks: Under 59 or Better · Ole Miss -2.5 or Better

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