Auburn vs. Mississippi State Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: 3 Key Angles Agree on the Right Side
John Glaser-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Auburn Tigers head coach Gus Malzahn gives a high five to offensive lineman Prince Tega Wanogho (76)
- Our betting tools, power ratings and market analysis all agree on how to bet Saturday night's Mississippi State vs. Auburn game (7 p.m. ET, ESPN).
- Learn where the value lies in this college football Week 5 matchup.
Auburn vs. Mississippi State Betting Odds & Picks
Auburn Spread: -10
Mississippi State Spread: +10
Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Auburn, Ala.
Odds as of Saturday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
At The Action Network we leverage betting data, power ratings, tools and market analysis to pinpoint which games are offering value.
Each of these can individually provide insight and help bettors make smarter wagering decisions, but it’s important to also search for situations in which multiple angles are pointing to the same side of a given matchup.
When it comes to college football’s Week 5 slate, Saturday night’s Mississippi State vs. Auburn game is not only backed by Action Pro Systems and a power ratings edge, but smart money has also taken a position on the same side.
Let’s look at how each of these key betting angles are independently coming down on Mississippi State vs. Auburn.
Auburn is currently garnering 63% of spread bets as a 10.5-point favorite, but a winning Pro System and sharp action look to be taking Mississippi State and the points.
Road Dogs Low Totals Pro System
When two teams from the same conference face off, the familiarity regarding the opponent’s personnel, coaching style, game plans, etc. levels the playing field, providing an advantage for the underdog.
When that team is the visitor and a dog of at least seven points, we have a slight betting edge as those teams cover 51.3% of the time.
But the real kicker is when we focus on games with low totals. Why? Because games that are expected to be lower scoring make it harder for the favorite to cover larger spreads, like those of seven points or more.
As you can see, when we focus on these teams in games with a total of 48 and below, the underdog covers 59.4% of time over a sample of 580 games. This game currently sits at 46.5/47.
Not only does the betting data support a wager on Mississippi State, but the professionals are already on that side.
After the spread opened at a consensus of Auburn -10.5, the line drifted up above 11 and that’s when the pros struck.
Sports Insights’ Bet Signals triggered a Reverse Line Move on Mississippi State on Tuesday evening, driving the line back down to the opener.
College Football Power Ratings
In addition, Collin Wilson’s college football power ratings agree that the road dogs are the valuable side of this matchup.
Wilson makes Auburn a 6.8-point favorite, suggesting there is plenty of line value in the current number of Mississippi State +10.5.