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The New Mexico State Aggies take on the Missouri State Bears in Springfield, Missouri, on Saturday, Nov. 14. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Missouri State is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -125. New Mexico State, meanwhile, enters as a +1.5 underdog and is +104 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 48.5 total points.
Here’s my New Mexico State vs. Missouri State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 14.
New Mexico State vs Missouri State Prediction
- New Mexico State vs Missouri State Pick: Over 48.5
My Missouri State vs. New Mexico State best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
New Mexico State vs Missouri State Odds
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 48.5 -111o / -109u | +104 |
| Missouri State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 48.5 -111o / -109u | -125 |
- New Mexico State vs Missouri State point spread: Missouri State -1.5 (-110), New Mexico State +1.5 (-110)
- New Mexico State vs Missouri State over/under: 48.5 (-111o / -109u)
- New Mexico State vs Missouri State moneyline: New Mexico State +104, Missouri State -125
New Mexico State vs Missouri State College Football Preview
Saturday's New Mexico State vs. Missouri State college football game fits a historically profitable betting system called "Beware of Falling Totals" from our Bet Labs database.
In both regular-season and postseason college football, significant drops in the total from opening to closing lines often reflect heavy betting on the under, usually driven by weather concerns, injuries or perceived matchup issues.
However, these moves can sometimes overstate the expected scoring decline, creating value on the over.
When the adjustment is meaningful but not extreme, offenses can still exceed the lowered expectation, particularly if conditions improve or if the line movement was influenced by public overreaction rather than substantial changes to game dynamics.
This system boasts an all-time record of 302-261-6, good for a winning percentage of 53.6% and an ROI of 2.2%.
New Mexico State vs Missouri State Pick, Betting Analysis
The name of this game is explosiveness.
Both offenses rank top-40 nationally in explosiveness, and while Missouri State generates big plays through the air, New Mexico State can do it both in the passing game and in the ground game.
The defenses aren't anything to write home about, either, as the Bears rank 131st in Success Rate allowed and the Aggies come in at 87th.
Given the historically profitable betting system at play and the on-field matchup, we'll take the under in this Conference USA clash.
Pick: Over 48.5
New Mexico State vs Missouri State Betting Trends
