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New Mexico State vs UMass Odds, Picks: How to Bet This Toilet Bowl

New Mexico State vs UMass Odds, Picks: How to Bet This Toilet Bowl article feature image
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Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Don Brown (UMass)

  • New Mexico State will face UMass in a battle between two of the bottom three teams in the country.
  • The Aggies are a run-heavy unit while the Minutemen are the lowest-scoring team in the country.
  • Kyle Remillard previews the game and offers up his best bet.

New Mexico State vs UMass Odds

Saturday, Oct. 29
3:30 p.m. ET
ESPN3
New Mexico State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-1.5
-110
38.5
-110o / -110u
-122
UMass Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+1.5
-110
38.5
-110o / -110u
+102
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

New Mexico State travels across the country to match up against UMass on homecoming night.

The Aggies opened the season losing their first four games by an average margin of 29 points per game. But the group has won two of its last three — against Hawaii and New Mexico.

New Mexico State showed its true colors two games ago, losing by 14 points to Florida International as 16-point favorites.

UMass continues its rebuild under head coach Don Brown. The program found its only victory this season against FCS opponent Stony Brook. It lost all six matchups as double-digit underdogs to FBS opponents this season.

This is a matchup between two of the bottom-three teams in the country, according to Collin Wilson’s Power Ratings. But luckily for us, there is still an opportunity to make some money on this matchup.


New Mexico State Aggies

New Mexico State has had potentially the easiest year-to-date schedule of any program in the country. This matchup will mark the Aggies’ sixth opponent that ranks outside the top 118 in the country.  

Despite that cakewalk schedule, the Aggies have looked as bad as advertised.

The offense is averaging just 15 points (123rd) and 260 yards per game (126th) against FBS opponents.

The group utilizes a Rush Rate of 59%, which ranks 28th in the nation. But the Aggies haven’t found success moving the chains consistently.

The rushing unit ranks 119th in the nation in Success Rate, while owning the 125th spot in Passing Success Rate.

Freshman quarterback Gavin Frakes has taken over the starting role. He’s completed just 48% of his passes for an average of 6.5 yards per attempt. Frakes is averaging only 74 passing yards per game while tossing four touchdowns to six interceptions.

The Aggies’ defensive metrics aren’t horrid considering the slow-playing style of the offense. The group is allowing 29 points (74th) and 380 yards (55th) per game. 

The defense should have no problem slowing down a UMass offense that ranks among the bottom-three in Success Rate.


Massachusetts Minutemen

It’s been tough sledding for Brown this season. The Minutemen have lost all six of their FBS games by an average margin of 25 points.

There isn’t much to be proud about on either side of the ball. The offense ranks dead last in the nation in most categories — such as points per game (10.7), yards per game (240) and yards per play (3.5).

The Minutemen are converting third downs at a 27% clip and have struggled to find any consistent movement.

Brown has implemented a run-first scheme, reminiscent of a service academy. The Minutemen are rushing the ball on 73% of their plays, which is the fourth-highest rate in the country. On such plays, the group is mustering a solemn 3.5 yards per carry.

Much of that is because the quarterback play has been unbearable.

Four different quarterbacks have attempted passes this season and have combined to throw eight interceptions to only one touchdown.

Garrett Dzuro returned from injury last week against Buffalo and has been the best passer in his limited time. Dzuro is averaging 8.6 yards per pass in his limited 21 passes this season.


New Mexico State vs UMass Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how New Mexico State and UMass match up statistically:

New Mexico State Offense vs. UMass Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 119 59
Line Yards 94 83
Pass Success 125 64
Pass Blocking** 99 103
Havoc 83 62
Finishing Drives 95 50
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

UMass Offense vs. New Mexico State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 128 109
Line Yards 115 112
Pass Success 129 70
Pass Blocking** 67 124
Havoc 125 125
Finishing Drives 131 110
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 54 53
PFF Coverage 94 119
SP+ Special Teams 112 122
Seconds per Play 28.5 (108) 29.3 (118)
Rush Rate 58.9% (28) 72.9% (4)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

New Mexico State vs UMass Betting Pick

All the talk this week has been about the low total in the Northwestern-Iowa matchup. But I have this game projected to be the lowest-scoring duel of the week.

Action Network’s PRO Projections agree, setting this total at 33 points.

Both offenses play at a snail’s pace, with New Mexico State ranking 108th and UMass at 118th in seconds per play.

Meanwhile, each program utilizes a run-heavy offense. The Minutemen run the ball on 73% of their plays despite trailing big in every matchup this season.

That has led Massachusetts to being the lowest-scoring team in the nation, averaging only 11 points per game. New Mexico State isn’t much better — only putting up 15 points per game — and it’s had the softest schedule in the nation.

The clock will continuously be moving behind these run-heavy, slow-paced offenses. I’m playing the under, as I envision this game being played in the 20s.

Pick: Under 38.5 (Play to 37)

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