If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
The Ole Miss Rebels take on the Florida Gators in Gainesville, Florida, on Saturday, Sept. 26. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Florida is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -150. Ole Miss, meanwhile, enters as a +3.5 underdog and is +125 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 58.5 total points.
Here’s my Ole Miss vs. Florida prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 26.
Ole Miss vs Florida Prediction
- Ole Miss vs. Florida Pick: Florida -3 · Over 59 or Better
My Florida vs. Ole Miss best bet is on the Gators to cover the spread and the game to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page. For more Week 4 college football picks and analysis, download the Action Network app today.
Ole Miss vs Florida Odds
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 58.5 -115o / -105u | +125 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -102 | 58.5 -115o / -105u | -150 |
- Ole Miss vs Florida Spread: Florida -3.5 (-102), Ole Miss +3.5 (-120)
- Ole Miss vs Florida Over/Under: 58.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Ole Miss vs Florida Moneyline: Ole Miss +125, Florida -150
Ole Miss vs Florida College Football Preview
Ole Miss Rebels Betting Preview: Letdown Spot?
The potential for a letdown spot following Ole Miss's win over LSU is immense.
The Lane Kiffin saga ended with a victory for the Rebels, with a turnover sealing the game as a last laugh for head coach Pete Golding's team.
The Week 3 rivalry had been hyped since the last College Football Playoff, when Kiffin abandoned his roster and program for the greener pastures of Baton Rouge.
Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss caught fire, though, throwing two touchdowns and more than 360 passing yards.
The defense did enough to stave off LSU's comeback. The Tigers were shell-shocked and ended the first half with just a single score, partly due to the crowd at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
Ole Miss limited LSU to no explosive drives and a low 27% Success Rate in 26 passing-down attempts.
The biggest issue that plagued the box score in previous weeks persisted in Week 3, as the Rebels missed 18 tackles, bringing the season total to 53.
Florida Gators Betting Preview: Gators Continue to Cruise
New head coach Jon Sumrall has Florida humming three weeks into the season.
A trip to Jordan-Hare Stadium saw the Gators in full control, as they never trailed in a 44-39 victory over Auburn.
The defense harassed the Tigers consistently, recording nine tackles for loss while allowing just a single explosive drive. EDGE Emmanuel Oyebadejo and linebacker Jayden Woods combined for 11 pressures for a Florida defense that ranks top-10 in Havoc.
Quarterback Aaron Philo kept the Buster Faulkner offense moving, more than doubling the national average in methodical drive rate. More than half of Florida's offensive possessions lasted for 10-plus plays or averaged at least 10 yards per play.
Running back Jadan Baugh continues to be the bell-cow in the backfield, racking up 162 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
The junior now owns eight touchdowns on 55 attempts this season, forcing 30 missed tackles while averaging 4.6 yards before first contact.
Ole Miss vs Florida Pick, Betting Analysis
The biggest issue for Florida has been penalties, ranking 131st at 88.3 yards per game. Another issue has been controlling the line of scrimmage on defense, as it ranks 136th in Stuff Rate through three games.
The good news for the Gators is Ole Miss' lack of rush efficiency and explosiveness. With running back Kewan Lacy considered questionable with an injury, the Rebels will be at a disadvantage on the ground against the Gators.
Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss will create highlights with receivers Deuce Alexander, Horatio Fields and Traylon Ray. The Gators' pass defense ranks 21st in PFF grading, sitting just inside the top 50 in EPA allowed.
Ole Miss may be one-dimensional on offense, but Chambliss has had success against Florida's preferred Cover 3 look.
The biggest edge comes in the Gators' offense against a Rebels defense that struggles to defend the pass. Ole Miss sits outside the top 100 in Passing Success Rate allowed and EPA allowed.
Nearly every opponent on the schedule has produced methodical drives above the national average, aided by Ole Miss' 126th-ranked tackling.
The Faulkner offense has been nearly flawless at Florida, ranking top-10 in both Quality Drives and Finishing Drives.
The Action Network Betting Power Ratings project this line at Florida -4, giving the Gators a small edge in the market. The total also has some value at or below the key number 59.
There are major advantages for both offenses in scoring position, as turnovers and penalties may be the only hurdles to a high-scoring game.
Pick: Florida -3 · Over 59 or Better
Ole Miss vs Florida Betting Trends
