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Purdue vs Indiana Odds & Predictions: Expect Offenses to Shine

Purdue vs Indiana Odds & Predictions: Expect Offenses to Shine article feature image
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Tony Quinn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Purdue running back Devin Mockobee.

Purdue vs Indiana Odds

Saturday, Nov. 26
3:30 p.m. ET
Big Ten Network
Purdue Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-10.5
-105
53
-110o / -110u
-390
Indiana Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+10.5
-115
53
-110o / -110u
+320
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The battle for the Old Oaken Bucket may have a little more meaning this weekend if Nebraska somehow upsets Iowa. If that happens, Purdue just needs to beat Indiana, and it’s headed to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship.

Purdue sits at 7-4 after an upset win in Champaign two weeks ago and a dominant performance over Northwestern last weekend.

However, the Boilermaker offense just hasn’t been what it was last season. The good news for them is they will undoubtedly find a way to get going against a poor Indiana defense.

Indiana ended its seven-game losing streak last weekend, beating Michigan State in double overtime, 39-31. The Hoosiers now sit at 4-7 with no hope of making a bowl game.

However, beating their in-state rival would send their seniors out on a high note.


Purdue Boilermakers

Boilermakers Offense

Aidan O’Connell has been very inconsistent this season, averaging only 6.7 yards per attempt this season to go along with a 69.7 PFF passing grade. He’s also recorded 18 big-time throws compared to 23 turnover-worthy plays.

The good news for him is he’s going up against one of the worst secondaries in college football.

O’Connell doesn’t have an excuse for his poor play because the offensive line has done a nice job of protecting him. He’s been under pressure on just 24.7% of his dropbacks, and Purdue ranks seventh in Havoc Allowed. Indiana has the second-worst pass-rushing grade in the country, so he should have plenty of time to throw once again.

Purdue has found some success on the ground. Running back Devin Mockobee is averaging 5.0 yards per carry and has 21 runs over 10 yards. He’s the main reason why Purdue ranks 34th in Rushing Success Rate.

Boilermakers Defense

Purdue’s defense has been incredibly solid this season, ranking 20th in Success Rate Allowed and 19th in EPA/Play Allowed.

However, while the Boilermakers have been good from a Success Rate standpoint, they’re not doing a great job of keeping teams out of the end zone when they cross the 40-yard line. Purdue ranks 96th in Defensive Finishing Drives, which is why it gives up 26.1 points per game.

The front seven has been the strength of the defense, especially against the run. Purdue sits 20th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 30th in rushing explosiveness allowed and 15th in EPA/Rush Allowed. So, it’s going to be very difficult for Indiana’s rushing attack to run the ball consistently against the Boilermakers.

The secondary is a completely different story.

Purdue has been torched repeatedly this season and has a big problem giving up big plays through the air. The Boilermakers are allowing 7.8 yards per attempt (99th in FBS) while ranking 105th in passing explosiveness allowed and 100th in PFF coverage grade.

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Indiana Hoosiers

Hoosiers Offense

The Indiana offense has been pretty bad this season, ranking 120th in Success Rate and 121st in EPA/Play.

However, the offense came alive last Saturday in East Lansing, as Indiana put up 39 points despite running only 51 offensive plays.

Indiana went run-heavy against the Spartans, as Dexter Williams attempted only seven passes. It’ll have to do so again against Purdue because Williams is not a great passer.

However, he’s a fantastic runner, which really helps open up holes in the read option for Shaun Shivers.

Shivers has struggled this season, but adding Williams at quarterback seems to have helped. Last week, he ran for 113 yards on 15 carries, which was by far his best game of the season. Even with all of the struggles he’s had, Indiana still sits 24th in rushing explosiveness.

This Shaun Shivers (@V8Blazing) 79-yd TD run is the longest run by an @IndianaFootball player since 2014. 🔥

📍@CountryMark 𝗗𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲 pic.twitter.com/rZJK3pQMza

— Indiana On BTN (@IndianaOnBTN) November 19, 2022

Hoosiers Defense

Indiana’s defense has been quite bad this season, allowing 5.8 yards per play and ranking 85th in Success Rate Allowed and 80th in Finishing Drives Allowed.

The front seven has actually been very good against the run, but last weekend, Michigan State ran for 242 yards and 5.0 yards per carry against it. But on the season, it still ranks 25th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 14th in EPA/Rush Allowed.

The problems with the Indiana defense have come in the secondary. The Hoosiers are allowing 7.8 yards per attempt (108th in FBS) while ranking 128th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 125th in coverage grade, so O’Connell should be able to throw all over this secondary.


Purdue vs Indiana Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Purdue and Indiana match up statistically:

Purdue Offense vs. Indiana Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 34 25
Line Yards 106 57
Pass Success 45 128
Pass Blocking** 53 130
Havoc 7 111
Finishing Drives 84 80
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Indiana Offense vs. Purdue Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 116 20
Line Yards 128 51
Pass Success 115 42
Pass Blocking** 120 51
Havoc 112 51
Finishing Drives 97 96
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 60 103
PFF Coverage 100 125
SP+ Special Teams 125 58
Seconds per Play 25.9 (51) 20.4 (1)
Rush Rate 44.4% (119) 44.4% (118)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Purdue vs Indiana Betting Pick

The Hoosiers are playing at an ultra-fast pace. Tom Allen’s squad runs a play every 18.3 seconds, which is the fastest in the nation. It often goes three-and-out in record time, giving the opposing offense ample opportunities to score on their lackluster defense.

Purdue also plays at an above-average pace, which should lead to a higher-scoring game than expected.

I have 62.3 points projected for this Old Oaken Bucket game, so I love the value on over 53.5 points.

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