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The Purdue Boilermakers take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in Iowa City, Iowa, on Saturday, Nov. 14. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
Iowa is favored by 17.5 points (-110) on the spread with a moneyline of -1100. Purdue is a 17.5-point (-110) underdog and is +720 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/unders sits at 47.5 total points (-110 / -110).
Here’s my Purdue vs. Iowa prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 14.
Purdue vs Iowa Predictions and Picks
- Purdue vs. Iowa Pick: Over 47.5 Points (-110)
My Iowa vs. Purdue best bet is on a total score of 48+ points. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Purdue vs Iowa Odds, Betting Spread, Total
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +720 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -1100 |
- Purdue vs Iowa point spread: Iowa -17.5 (-110), Purdue +17.5 (-110)
- Purdue vs Iowa over/under: 47.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Purdue vs Iowa moneyline: Purdue +720, Iowa -1100
Purdue vs Iowa College Football Preview and Best Bets
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Trends, Props
Purdue heads to Iowa City at 3-6, and while the Boilermakers haven't consistently translated their offensive production into victories, I'm much more interested in their defensive deficiencies when evaluating this total.
Purdue is allowing 32.3 points per game and 415.4 yards per game, including 244.7 passing YPG and 170.8 rushing YPG.
The underlying numbers are even uglier. The Boilermakers rank 133rd nationally in EPA/Play allowed at +0.30, which creates an enormous advantage for an Iowa offense that's been considerably more productive than its reputation suggests.
Purdue is also allowing approximately 5.2 yards per carry and 8.7 YPA on an opponent-adjusted basis. That's a brutal combination against Iowa, which typically leans on its rushing attack and puts itself in manageable passing-down situations.
Purdue's offense, however, has been respectable. The Boilermakers rank 50th nationally in EPA/Play at +0.15, averaging 29.4 PPG and 384.9 YPG.
Quarterback Ryan Browne has been productive through the air, helping Purdue average 267 passing YPG, ranking 26th nationally.
Wide receivers Asaad Waseem and Xavier Townsend have emerged as his top receiving options, accounting for nearly half of Purdue's receptions over the last three games.
Running back Fame Ijeboi has also provided production on the ground, although the matchup against Iowa's defensive front is considerably more difficult. The Hawkeyes are allowing just 81.9 rushing yards per game, ranking fifth nationally.
That's an enormous disadvantage for Purdue, which ranks 117th in rushing offense at 117.9 YPG. If the Boilermakers contribute offensively, it will likely come through Browne's arm rather than consistent rushing success.
As 17.5-point dogs, you can expect a trailing game script, so Browne should throw the ball a lot. With that said, I expect Purdue to cash in during garbage time, along with offensive possessions that won't bleed much clock.
Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Trends, Props
Iowa enters Saturday at 7-2 following consecutive victories, including a 30-0 shutout of Wisconsin.
While the Hawkeyes are still known primarily for their defense, I'm willing to buy into their offensive matchup against one of the worst defensive units in the country.
Iowa ranks 87th nationally in EPA/Play at +0.07, but that number needs to be evaluated alongside Purdue's defensive profile.
Quarterback Hank Brown has also been considerably more efficient recently. Brown has completed 36-of-45 passes over his last two games for an 80% completion rate while throwing for 348 yards and three touchdowns.
Last week against Northwestern, Brown completed 16-of-21 passes for 126 yards and a touchdown. Those aren't eye-popping numbers, but the efficiency is encouraging heading into a matchup against a Purdue secondary allowing nearly 245 passing YPG.
Wide receiver Tony Diaz has recorded a touchdown reception in consecutive games, while tight end DJ Vonnahme has become an important part of the passing attack.
The rushing matchup is just as juicy. Iowa averages 173.8 rushing YPG, while Purdue allows 170.8.
Running back L.J. Phillips Jr. rushed for 128 yards against Northwestern, becoming Iowa's fifth different 100-yard rusher this season. No matter who's been running the ball for the Hawkeyes, they've been very consistent on the ground.
Iowa's offensive line has also allowed just eight sacks through nine games, ranking eighth nationally. That protection advantage should help Brown attack a Purdue defense that has struggled to consistently generate stops.
I expect a lot of explosive runs that should translate into touchdowns early on.
How To Bet My Purdue vs Iowa College Football Pick
This total opened around 45.5 before moving toward 47.5, and I'm willing to play that number.
The biggest reason is Purdue's defensive inefficiency, which creates substantial advantages for Iowa in rushing efficiency, passing Success Rate and pass protection.
Brown's recent improvement is another encouraging sign that the Hawkeyes should have no issues moving the ball.
The concern is Purdue's offense against Iowa's elite defense. The Hawkeyes rank third nationally in scoring defense at 12.2 points per game allowed and fifth in rushing defense.
However, Browne has enough receiving talent to generate some production if the Boilermakers fall behind.
There's also the potential game-script advantage I alluded to earlier.
Iowa is favored by 17.5 points, meaning Purdue could be forced into a pass-heavy approach relatively early. That will also create a lot of fourth-down variance for the Boilermakers, either resulting in extended drives or turnovers on downs in their own territory.
Either result is ideal for the over, creating additional opportunities for possessions, clock stoppages and potentially short fields if Browne makes mistakes.
The biggest concern is pace. This matchup projects for approximately 126 combined snaps, slightly below the national average, and Iowa has demonstrated the ability to control games with its defense and rushing attack.
However, I think Purdue's defensive deficiencies create enough scoring opportunities for Iowa to offset that concern.
I'll trust the matchup advantages rather than Iowa's reputation as an automatic under team.
Pick: Over 47.5
