Let's close out Week 11 with a bang.
Check out our five college football predictions and 5 evening best bets for Saturday, November 14, below.
College Football Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Utah vs. Arizona Prediction
The biggest question around Utah is a hangover from both on- and off-field issues. The Utes are completing a whirlwind schedule that includes a Holy War victory, road wins over Cincinnati and Colorado and an unlikely fourth-quarter cover against Houston.
Off the field, Utah entered the College Football Playoff as the third-best team in the initial rankings, but the pressure mounts on the undefeated season week by week.
The Utes have a softer strength of schedule at 69th, with numerous stat categories outside the top 100, including Stuff Rate, explosives allowed and various special-teams units.
Arizona has experience facing Utah's multiple-run concepts. Zone read, power and counter have been the calling card for the Utes' combination of Devon Dampier and running back Wayshawn Parker.
The Wildcats have at least a 51% Success Rate against all combinations and an even higher 60% Success Rate against zone read with two tight ends.
Utah runs a heavy amount of outside zone with 12 personnel, an area Arizona should provide stops through the defensive line.
When the Wildcats have the ball, Utah could struggle to defend Isaiah Mizell and Giovanni Richardson. The Utes have one of the heaviest man-coverage schemes in the FBS, but Fifita has carved up opponents in man coverage with a 51% Success Rate.
A potential pivot to Cover 1 could increase the chances of an explosive play from Noah Fifita, with an EPA of 0.25 per attempt.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings list Utah as a -1 favorite, giving Arizona the edge in the market. The Utes could be in a post-BYU hangover but have dipped into luck territory with a 27% post-game win expectancy against Colorado.
Arizona has the numbers in the passing game to give the Utes' secondary a tough evening, while a top-10 sack total should keep Dampier contained in the pocket.
Pick: Arizona +2.5 or Better
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Texas vs. LSU Pick
By Stuckey
Last week, the market backed LSU early and often against Alabama in a game it ended up losing by a very misleading 31-13 final score.
While the Tide deserved the win, the Tigers did outgain them by nearly 200 yards but just couldn't overcome countless fourth-down failures in Alabama territory.
Amazingly, Alabama scored 31 points on five trips into LSU territory, while LSU managed only 13 on eight!
Well, just one week later, the entire narrative has shifted around LSU. Not only is it no longer a national title contender, but the talk on the interwebs is all about how Lane Kiffin can't win the big game.
Funny enough, many have said the same about Steve Sarkisian in the past.
It's true that Kiffin doesn't have the most amazing track record in high-profile games. He's just 4-7 ATS vs. top-10 competition this decade (4-3 ATS at home). For reference, Sarkisian has gone 6-7 ATS since 2020 at Texas.
Maybe Lane makes a bunch of reckless fourth-down decisions on Saturday night in Death Valley, but I'm not afraid to back the Tigers here.
For starters, this spot is appealing.
While LSU is coming off a bit of a misleading defeat, Texas is riding high after picking up a road win at Missouri in a game where it benefited from a handful of game-changing calls.
Additionally, this is basically a playoff game for LSU, which needs to win out for a shot at getting into the College Football Playoff.
Meanwhile, Texas can likely still afford to drop a game, and the Longhorns have Arkansas and Texas A&M remaining on their schedule.
This is a great buy-low / sell-high spot, with all the urgency for the home team taking on a Texas team that will hit the road for a second straight week.
Additionally, this is a juicy matchup for the LSU defense, which has one of the nation's best pass defenses (top-10 in EPA allowed and Success Rate allowed).
Not only can the Tigers generate pressure at an elite level (second in Sack Rate), but they can also cover on the back end. That's extremely problematic for a Texas offense that ranks outside the top 100 in Sack Rate allowed with a quarterback who ranks 120th in turnover-worthy play rate.
Unlike Missouri, which almost never blitzes and plays soft zones on the back end, LSU will bring plenty of pressure and use more aggressive coverages, which will likely lead to a few critical Arch Manning mistakes and a plethora of drive-killing sacks.
This is just not a great Texas offense at the moment.
The run game is nothing to write home about (68th Success Rate in large part due to poor run blocking up front), which means Texas will be in third-and-long throughout this contest. On the season, LSU's defense ranks second in the country in average third-down distance at nearly 8.5 yards, while the Texas offense ranks 66th in that department.
I believe this is the matchup where Texas will really miss injured left tackle Trevor Goosby — a potential future first-round draft pick. It's a significant drop-off to his backup, Andre Cojoe, who has recently swapped sides with the steady Melvin Siani.
LSU's ferocious edge duo of Princewill Umanmielen and Jordan Ross should feast. Those two have combined for 63 pressures and 18 sacks through 10 weeks.
One might point to Sam Leavitt's nine interceptions as a reason to be concerned. However, he's been about as unlucky as any quarterback when it comes to giveaways (plenty of drops and random tips have led to INTs). Believe it or not, Leavitt actually owns the 11th-lowest turnover-worthy play rate in the country.
Like LSU, Texas also features an elite defense. The Longhorns won't make life easy on the LSU offense, but I trust Leavitt and the LSU offense much more, especially at home.
In a game where both defenses should create a high rate of pressure, Leavitt should make fewer mistakes and hit more explosive plays downfield.
On the season, Leavitt has a 10% lower pressure-to-sack ratio and a 10% higher completion rate when under pressure compared to Manning, who has the 145th-highest P2S ratio among 169 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks.
Ultimately, this is a great spot and matchup for a team I still have power-rated in the top five (and higher than Texas). I believe the more desperate Tigers get this done on the back of their defense in front of a raucous crowd in prime time.
Pick: LSU -4 or Better
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UNLV vs. New Mexico Best Bet
Sheesh. What a season for Jaskon Eck and the New Mexico Lobos.
Led by linebacker Mercury Swaim (55 tackles), edge rusher Darren Agu (seven sacks, 24 QB hurries, 18 TFLs), and safety Austin Brawley (four INTs), the Lobos rank first nationally in Success Rate allowed and top-five in a host of other metrics.
They’ve held Mountain West opponents to just 12 points per game en route to a perfect 6-0 conference start. Their only loss this season: at Oklahoma, where they held the Sooners to just 14 points in Norman.
In steps UNLV, which is running Dan Mullen’s rush-heavy spread offense led by dual-action quarterback Jackson Arnold and top running back Jai’Den Thomas. The Rebels have done so with little success, ranking 100th nationally in EPA per Play and 105th in Success Rate.
Last week was gross. Although Thomas pieced together 96 yards and two scores on 16 carries, Arnold went 7-for-18 passing for 83 yards and was promptly benched for Alex Orji, who went 2-for-5 for 58 yards and a pick. It’s unclear who will start for the Rebels on Saturday.
Anyway, there’s no way the offense will move the rock on Saturday. I doubt the Rebels can run the ball into a New Mexico front that leads the nation in both Defensive Line Yards (1.8) and Stuff Rate (33%). And how are they supposed to throw the ball when they can't agree on which run-first quarterback to start?
New Mexico wants to run the ball (66% rush rate, sixth nationally) behind Scottre Humphrey and Kiefer Sibley, while quarterback Toa Fa’avae is plenty mobile — all three are averaging over five yards per carry and three yards after first contact.
I imagine they’ll have no issues establishing the run against UNLV’s super-soft front — the Rebels rank 130th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed (50%), 127th in Stuff Rate (14%), and second-to-last in Line Yards (3.6).
Ultimately, I’m laying it with the Lobos.
David Sasser’s model projects New Mexico as a 21-point home favorite, and I believe that’s where this line should be.
Pick: New Mexico -14.5 or Better
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San Jose State vs. Air Force Team Total
By Kyle Hunter
The Spartans boast a good defense.
They're allowing just 22.7 points per game, and that number is actually a bit skewed after USC dropped 42 on them in Week 1. They rank 31st nationally in Explosiveness allowed, having allowed just eight 20-plus-yard rushing plays on the season.
Head coach Ken Niumatalolo spent 15 years at Navy running the triple-option, so he knows exactly how to stop it. Since Niumatalolo took over at San Jose State, the Spartans have played the Falcons twice, holding them to 4.1 yards per play last season and 3.0 yards per play the season before.
Air Force is coming off their emotional win over Army. That wasn’t just any win over the Black Knights, as it gave Air Force the 2026 Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. The Falcons are well coached, but this is a tough spot for them.
Meanwhile, San Jose State will get up for this one, and I expect them to slow down the Air Force attack.
Pick: Air Force TT Under 30.5 or Better
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Minnesota vs. Penn State Player Prop
By Doug Ziefel
Action PRO projects 34.4 attempts for Drake Lindsey, nearly four above this line, and the data supports that. He is averaging about 33 attempts a game, which is 23rd in the country, and he has cleared 30.5 in five of nine starts.
The more telling stat is when he has done it: in each of Minnesota’s four losses he threw 37 or more times, with 48 against Mississippi State, 39 against Purdue, and 37 against both Indiana and UCLA. In wins, he usually threw 31 or fewer.
Minnesota is a 9.5-point underdog at Penn State, which is the kind of spot that produces a loss script. The Gophers’ run game is among the worst in the country, ranking near the bottom in rushing, so even when they try to establish the ground game, falling behind pushes them to the air.
Penn State’s pass defense is elite on a per-play basis, ranking third nationally at 144.8 yards a game and first in yards per attempt. That means incompletions and more attempts to move the chains. The Nittany Lions also have only 11 sacks this season, which ranks 120th, so Lindsey should get time to throw.
Minnesota is a pass-first team with a 6-foot-5 quarterback who is on the field for most of the game, and the Gophers are likely to be chasing the game.
Pick: Drake Lindsey Over 30.5 Pass Attempts
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