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The Florida Gators take on the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington, Kentucky, on Saturday, Nov. 14. Kickoff is set for 6:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Kentucky is favored by 2.5 points (-110) on the spread with a moneyline of -156. Florida enters as a 2.5-point (-110) underdog and is +130 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 52.5 total points (-115o / -105u).
Here’s my Florida vs. Kentucky prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 14.
Florida vs Kentucky Predictions and Picks
- Florida vs. Kentucky Pick: Kentucky -3.5
My Kentucky vs. Florida best bet is on the Wildcats to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and make sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Florida vs Kentucky Odds, Betting Lines & Over/Under
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +110 | 52.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -130 | 52.5 -115o / -105u | -156 |
- Florida vs Kentucky point spread: Kentucky -2.5 (-110), Florida +2.5 (-110)
- Florida vs Kentucky over/under: 52.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Florida vs Kentucky moneyline: Florida +130, Kentucky -156
Florida vs Kentucky College Football Preview
Florida Gators Betting Trends, Picks
Has any program this season had a worse breakdown than Florida?
It seemed like the Gators were expediting their rebuild after pulverizing Ole Miss, 52-28, in Week 4, but that couldn't be further from the truth.
Since that very game, Florida has gone 1-4 and has scored a total of just 15 points in its past two games.
Further to that point, head coach Jon Sumrall can't seem to figure out what quarterback he wants to start.
Last week against Oklahoma, Tramell Jones Jr. started. This week? It's back to Aaron Philo, who truly wasn't the problem. He had that one insanely embarrassing interception against Georgia, but there's no reason he should've been punished for that.
I like Sumrall a lot as a coach, but the benching of Philo was awfully reactionary.
If you think about it, the passing game has been one of the better parts of this offense. Running back Jadan Baugh has gone invisible since one of the hottest stretches for a running back, where he ran for 135 yards in four consecutive games.
Since then, Baugh has averaged 3.1 yards per carry.
What happened? The offensive line is what happened.
In the first four games, Philo was only sacked twice. In this five-game stretch, Florida's quarterbacks were sacked 14 times.
Defensively, this hasn't been a team to write home about either. The Gators are just OK at stopping the run, allowing 143.8 rushing yards per game, but the secondary has been brutal.
DJ Coleman and Cormani McClain have been decent, but this unit allows way too many yards through the air, ranking 102nd with 243.1 passing yards allowed.
Kentucky Wildcats Betting Trends, Picks
Kentucky has been one of the biggest surprises this season, and it's all because of head coach Will Stein, who has changed the complete landscape of this program.
It will be interesting to see how Kentucky's defense handles Florida's struggling offense. The Wildcats have their moments, and their moments are strong, generating Havoc at an 18.3% clip (27th).
Defensive backs Ty Bryant and Jordan Castell each have four interceptions, while lineman Mi'Quise Humphrey-Grace has been a dog on the front lines with six sacks and three PBUs.
The problem is, they're susceptible to explosive plays, especially on the ground, ranking 81st in explosiveness allowed and 109th in rushing Success Rate allowed.
Quarterback Kenny Minchey has been exceptional this season after spending three seasons at Notre Dame. Minchey has only turned the ball over twice and has completed passes at a 70% clip. Not only that, the offensive line has done a solid job at protecting him, allowing Havoc on just 18.3% of snaps.
He's developed a nice chemistry with a nice chemistry with Kenny Darby and tight end Willie Rodriguez, who each have three receiving touchdowns.
However, what's separated Kentucky from the pack has been its run game, ranking second in Success Rate. Both CJ Baxter and Jason Patterson each average over 5.5 yards per carry, with Baxter running it into the endzone eight times.
How To Bet My Florida vs Kentucky Expert NCAAF Pick for Week 11
Given how poorly Florida's defense has been, and how it can't seem to protect Philo, I see this being a long night for him.
The name of the game is applying pressure to the quarterback, and when Florida lets up consistent pressure, it loses.
Kentucky's defense isn't perfect, but the one thing it does right is shield its own weaknesses. Factor in that this game is being played in Lexington, and I like Kentucky to bounce back from getting trounced by Tennessee last week.
Give me the Wildcats to cover.
Pick: Kentucky -3.5
Florida vs Kentucky Betting Trends
