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The Minnesota Golden Gophers take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in University Park, Pennsylvania. Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. EST on Fox Sports 1.
Penn State is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -360. The total is set at 41.5 points.
Here’s my Minnesota vs. Penn State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 14, 2026.
Minnesota vs Penn State Prediction
- Minnesota vs. Penn State Pick: Penn State -8.5 (-110, Play to -10)
My Penn State vs. Minnesota best bet is on the Nittany Lions to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Minnesota vs Penn State Odds
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 41.5 -120o / -100u | +280 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 41.5 -120o / -100u | -360 |
- Minnesota vs Penn State point spread: Penn State -9.5 (-110), Minnesota +9.5 (-110)
- Minnesota vs Penn State over/under: 41.5 (-120o / -100u)
- Minnesota vs Penn State moneyline: Minnesota +280, Penn State -360
Minnesota vs Penn State College Football Preview
Minnesota Golden Gophers Betting Preview: Nothing Left in Reserve
Minnesota has been an inconsistent team this season, showing the ability to contend with the premier teams in the Big Ten and the ability to be blown out by four touchdowns against Purdue.
The offense has consistently struggled to move the football and is among the least explosive in college football. The defense has shown up in spurts, but after a backbreaking loss at Indiana followed by a poor showing against UCLA, I wonder how much this Gophers team has left in the tank.
The offense plays at a very slow tempo, and the rushing attack has been really bad, averaging just 92 yards per game against FBS competition. TJ Thomas leads the team with just 400 rushing yards, and while Darius Taylor has six rushing touchdowns, the production has been extremely limited. The passing offense has really tapered off, as Minnesota has thrown for just 462 yards combined over the last three games while averaging 4.2 yards per pass attempt.
Minnesota’s defense has started to fade, as the Gophers have allowed 419 or more yards in three of four games while allowing 6.3 yards per play during that stretch. The pass explosiveness has been crippling, and last week was a great example, as Minnesota surrendered 303 passing yards on just eight completions. The red-zone defense has been solid, and down-to-down, the run defense has provided resistance, but the explosives have been too much to overcome in several losses.
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview: Roaring Again
Penn State was a preseason darling to win the Big Ten and possibly make some serious national noise in 2026, with Matt Campbell coming over from Iowa State with a plethora of former Cyclone players.
The Nittany Lions were off to a 3-0 start with blowout wins over Marshall and Buffalo, along with a three-score win over Temple, and the national media was fanning the flames on the Penn State hype train.
After a four-game losing streak ignited by the Nittany Lions blowing a 17-0 lead against Wisconsin and then getting blown out by Northwestern, Penn State quickly reset its season expectations and has rallied with back-to-back wins over Purdue and Washington.
The rushing offense has come back to life over that stretch, as Penn State has run for 443 yards while averaging five yards per carry. Rocco Becht has thrown the ball well over the last two weeks, and Penn State has found some explosiveness with the emergence of Chase Sowell for the first time this season. This offense should have some success against Minnesota.
The defense was humbled in a loss to Northwestern, where the Nittany Lions surrendered 413 rushing yards, but the stop unit has figured out the run fits and has played better over the last two weeks. The secondary has been excellent against the pass all season, as opponents are averaging just 5.4 yards per attempt, and Penn State has allowed more than 200 yards through the air only twice this season.
Minnesota vs Penn State Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened with Penn State listed as a 7.5-point favorite, and the Nittany Lions have taken a bit of money during the week. This line has bounced around between -8.5 and -9.5, and the total sits at 42.
I like Penn State in this game.
The inconsistency of Minnesota’s play can make the Gophers an enticing dog here, as they took Indiana to the wire and defeated Iowa late last month.
But I worry that the Gophers have run out of gas, especially on defense. Minnesota allowed 466 yards against UCLA and looked lost in pass coverage against the Bruins.
The pass rush has been largely ineffective over the last four weeks, as the Gophers have registered just four sacks and 10 total tackles for loss. Penn State should be able to run the football, and the play-action game should provide opportunities for explosive passes. Penn State has registered over 400 yards in back-to-back games, and if the Nittany Lions capitalize on those explosive plays, they will score a lot of points on Saturday.
The Minnesota run game has been weak in recent weeks, and the pass game is going to struggle here, as it has much of the season. Minnesota ranks just 126th nationally in Rush Success Rate and 133rd in Rush Explosiveness. It's hard to see Minnesota moving the ball and consistently finding the red zone, and even harder to see the Gophers cash in for touchdowns when they do get down there. Just three red-zone touchdowns have been scored over the last four games in nine trips.
With the low total and how Penn State slumped earlier in the season, this is a tough bet, but I don't believe Minnesota will be able to prevent the explosive passes, and the offense will not be able to keep up here.
Pick: Penn State -8.5 (-110, Play to -10)
Minnesota vs Penn State Betting Trends
