SDSU vs New Mexico Betting Odds, Predictions: Our Top Pick for Friday
Sam Wasson/Getty Images. Pictured: New Mexico’s Justin Holaday.
SDSU vs New Mexico Odds
| SDSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 36.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 36.5 -110o / -110u | +430 |
San Diego State will head to New Mexico on Friday night seeking its third straight win. The Lobos, meanwhile, are looking for their third win of the season, as they haven't won a game since a September victory over UTEP.
San Diego State struggled in its last game and fell behind by 14 in the first quarter to San Jose State. However, the Aztecs made a major comeback, going off for 43 points and 425 yards in a 43-27 win.
One key component to San Diego State's recent success — especially against San Jose State — is the run defense. The Aztecs have made it a point to try and hold teams to less than 100 yards rushing, and the Spartans tallied just 28 yards on the ground.
Can they also hold the Lobos to less than 100? More importantly, can they cover the two-touchdown spread?
San Diego State Aztecs
Jalen Mayden did it all for the Aztecs against San Jose State.
The quarterback completed 17-of-22 passes for 268 yards. He did throw an interception, but he also threw for three touchdowns and tacked on 61 yards on the ground. His performance earned him Mountain West Offensive Player of the Week honors.
Mayden has been nearly perfect since taking over as the starting signal-caller. He's gone 4-1 (3-2 against the spread), racking up 1,253 yards and eight touchdowns.
His best quality is his dual-threat ability, specifically when he's paired up with the Aztecs' talented running backs.
Three different running backs have recorded more than 200 yards season for the Aztecs this season. Senior Jordan Byrd leads the way with 415 yards and 10 touchdowns.
The Aztecs defense shouldn't have much issue stopping a Lobos team that's averaging just 14.7 points and 240.6 yards per game.
San Diego State is one of the best in the country when it comes to Finishing Drives on defense, ranking 21st. The Aztecs also rank inside the top 40 when it comes to stopping the rush, something the Lobos do often with a rank of 16th nationally in rush rate.
New Mexico Lobos
There aren't many positives when it comes to this Lobos team, but there's one thing that could help it keep it close against the Aztecs — its pass defense.
The Lobos rank 42nd in Defensive Pass Success and have been solid when it comes to getting stops in the red zone.
The Lobos rank fourth among Mountain West teams in passing defense, holding opponents to just 192.1 passing yards per game. If they're going to have any chance at keeping it close against the Aztecs, it will be by stopping the passing game.
SDSU vs New Mexico Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how San Diego State and New Mexico match up statistically:
San Diego State Offense vs. New Mexico Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 111 | 107 |  |
| Line Yards | 113 | 109 | |
| Pass Success | 78 | 42 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 55 | 128 | |
| Havoc | 121 | 70 | |
| Finishing Drives | 119 | 61 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
New Mexico Offense vs. San Diego State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 104 | 33 | |
| Line Yards | 109 | 58 | |
| Pass Success | 131 | 70 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 118 | 29 | |
| Havoc | 130 | 35 | |
| Finishing Drives | 115 | 21 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 121 | 99 |
| PFF Coverage | 33 | 24 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 16 | 97 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.5 (120) | 30.5 (128) |
| Rush Rate | 61.3% (16) | 64.8% (8) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
SDSU vs New Mexico Betting Pick
Both of these teams rank inside the top 20 when it comes to rush rate. They're also both outside the top 115 when it comes to seconds per play. However, this total seems a little too low for me to back the under in this matchup.
Despite their struggles so far this season, I think the Lobos will benefit greatly from the slow pace of this game.
Back New Mexico to keep it somewhat close, as there may not be enough scoring for San Diego State to pull away. I would recommend the Lobos at +14 or better and wouldn't bet them below a two-touchdown spread.
Pick: New Mexico +14 or Better |
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