College Football Favorites: Boise State Highlights Our Week 9 Picks

Time for Week 9.

You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article.

Well, we decided last year we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites, which we share weekly on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast.

We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.

Last week, Collin cashed with ease backing the resurgent Kansas State Wildcats, but I really let us down by trusting the USC Trojans as a favorite. Embarrassing pick.

After four straight splits, our record is 10-6 (62.5%) on the season. Hopefully, we can finally find the brooms again in Week 9 with some late afternoon chalk.

Wilson: Tulane -10

The Green Wave are looking to crest during the second half of the season with a chance to host the American Athletic Conference Championship.

The schedule starts with Rice, a team that last hosted Tulane during the 2013 season.

Both teams have a different approach to offensive methodology. The Owls look to air it out behind sixth-year senior quarterback JT Daniels, while Tulane prefers a bulldozing approach on the ground with the duo of quarterback Michael Pratt and running back Makhi Hughes.

The defense that solves the hard-stop puzzle against the opposing offense will take home a key AAC victory between two contending teams.

Tulane has a heavy rush ratio at 61%, looking to get defenders on their heels with zone, man, counter and power formations. The Green Wave will implement pre-snap motion, shifting between 11 and 12 personnel.

Hughes has averaged a gaudy 3.5 yards after contact and created 32 missed tackles on the season running behind an offensive line that ranks fifth nationally in Offensive Stuff Rate, which measures tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage.

That approach should lead to sustained drives all day long against a Rice defense that ranks 70th in Stuff Rate.

Additionally, the Owls have one of the worst front sevens in FBS when it comes to defending several different run concepts with man and outside zone, which the Green Wave should capitalize on.

As mentioned, Rice has been powered on offense by the arm of quarterback JT Daniels, who has led the Owls to a top-20 rank in Passing Success Rate and Finishing Drives.

However, while Tulane's coverage ranks have sagged in comparison to its stingy run defense, there may be an advantage in the secondary for the Green Wave. Daniels has just average success against quarters coverage with only a moderate level of explosives against Cover 1. Well, Tulane plays quarters and Cover 1 exclusively, which spells trouble for the Owls.

Rice also features an offense that ranks in the top 20 in creating explosives on passing downs, but Tulane's defense ranks similarly in stopping the big play when its opponents are behind the chains, which should be the case often on Saturday because Rice won't get much of anything on the ground.

Look for the rushing attack of Hughes and Pratt to eat clock and limit the number of possessions for the Rice offense, which doesn't have a great matchup on paper here.

Stuckey: Boise State -5

I think this sets up as an ideal buy-low/sell-high spot in a matchup between two Mountain West teams coming off bye weeks.

The Cowboys have surprised many with a 5-2 start, but they have a net scoring margin of just +5 on the season. The Pokes have a pair of underwhelming wins over New Mexico and Portland State by 9 and 14, respectively, plus three other victories by a combined 10 points with the help of turnovers, special teams touchdowns and opposing quarterback injuries.

Meanwhile, the Broncos have a loss at Washington, but their other three losses came by a combined six points on a Hail Mary, last-second field goal and game-changing blocked field goal returned for an 80-yard touchdown against Memphis.

Boise also got much healthier during its bye week.

Running back George Holani should return to provide a dynamic 1-2 punch with Ashton Jeanty, the best back in the country that too many don't know about. He'll be playing on Sundays soon and will finally have a decent backup option on the field when he gets gassed.

Plus, the offensive line will be fully healthy for the first time since fall camp. It also looks like Taylen Green will get the start at quarterback. Hopefully, he gets most of the snaps and offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan utilizes his rushing ability, but I'm assuming we still see some type of rotation with fellow signal-caller (and more pure dropback passer) Maddux Madsen.

Lastly, from a matchup perspective, Wyoming can't really take advantage of major Boise secondary deficiencies from a unit that had to replace an abundance of high-end talent in the offseason.

Boise is also due a few bounces, but the opposite is true for Wyoming. With a very similar schedule difficulty, the Broncos have a -5 turnover margin, while the Pokes sit at +5.

After blowing a 30-10 lead with under five minutes to go at Colorado State, the bye came at a perfect time for Boise State, which has bounced back nicely from horrid losses in recent seasons.

I've also heard glowing reports about the state of the locker room and how practice has gone during the off-week.

Ultimately, I believe Boise bounces back in a big way, continuing its dominance over a Wyoming program it has owned with a 16-1 head-to-head edge, including a perfect 8-0 record at home with those wins coming by an average of just under 17 points per game.

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