College Football Odds, Pick for Southern Miss vs Louisiana: Bet the Underdog?

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The Sun Belt dipped its toes into early-week football this season.

You might have seen Southern Miss losing to South Alabama a few weeks ago on a Tuesday night. But it’s MACtion season now, and the Sun Belt is back to Thursday night clashes.

That means we're here with some picks and predictions for this week’s game, which pits a pair of SBC West teams trying to make some late-season hay. Southern Miss is still fighting to end a tough season, and Louisiana just lost breakout quarterback Zeon Chriss for the season.

The home Cajuns are favored by double digits in this matchup despite the loss of Chriss. Is there buy-low value on Southern Miss? Or will Louisiana, on the brink of bowl eligibility, handle its business?

Let's look at the Southern Miss vs. Louisiana odds and make a pick for Thursday night's Sun Belt college football showdown.

Will Hall’s program has endured some growing pains in Year 3.

After making a bowl game last fall with a defense and ground game that propped up a miserable passing attack, the team has struggled to a 2-7 record this year.

The rush attack has regressed, the passing game has not progressed, and the Nasty Bunch defense has backslid with the loss of coordinator Austin Armstrong.

But after a miserable October, the team rallied during a long week after a Tuesday game and used the extra time to come together. The Golden Eagles have played their best two games of the season in the past two weeks.

What’s changed?

They have recommitted to pounding the rock with Frank Gore Jr., one of the best players in Eagles history. After cracking 100 yards for a game only twice in the first seven contests, he's done it in consecutive weeks.

Quarterback Billy Wiles still takes too many sacks, but he’s played two of his better games in the past two weeks, including his best effort yet last week in the win over ULM.

This is hardly a good offense, and the passing game is still in the dumps. But the ground game is middle of the pack, ranking 33rd in explosives and 63rd in Success Rate. And more importantly, the team is still playing hard, rallying after a listless 55-3 loss to South Alabama.

The defensive backslide has been tough for the Golden Eagles. They’ve been whipped by the good offenses they've faced — Florida State and South Alabama — and have struggled with teams that can attack on the ground or through the air like Texas State and App State.

But Southern Miss did shut down the one-dimensional units it faced in Old Dominion and ULM.

Its strength, if it has one, is up front. The Eagles give up too many big plays on the ground, but the pass rush led by Jalil Clemons is serviceable.

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Louisiana stumbled to an early Week 2 loss to Old Dominion and turned to redshirt freshman backup quarterback Zeon Chriss in the aftermath.

Chriss proved to be one of the most dynamic players at any position in the Sun Belt; his rushing ability as a quarterback changed the game for the Cajuns' ground attack.

Chris was a solid passer with a 66.7% completion percentage and 70 QBR, but his value was in the running game, which took off once the extra number was added.

Lead back Jacob Kibodi (611 yards, 6.6 yards per carry) and second chair Dre’lyn Washington (359, 5.7) have been a formidable 1-3 punch. I would say 1-2, but Chriss (492, 6.7) is the second punch here.

Without Chriss, this might look like just a pedestrian rushing attack. We know the passing game will be uninspiring.

Veteran Chandler Fields re-ascends to the starting role, and his time in Lafayette has not been impressive. The fifth-year junior got extended playing time last year; he has completed 58% of his passes for 6.1 yards per completion in his career.

The Cajuns turned their season around last year when they benched Fields.

He had four drives last week against Arkansas State after Chriss went down, ending in an interception, turnover on downs, lost fumble and then end of game.

Louisiana’s defense has regressed this season. Last year’s unit finished middle of the pack for FBS, but most of the talented players from the Billy Napier era have departed in the portal or graduated.

The new-look Cajun defense is good at taking away the big plays (seventh in explosives allowed) but sits outside the top 100 in Success Rate Allowed and Finishing Drives Allowed.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Southern Miss and Louisiana match up statistically:

Southern Miss Offense vs Louisiana Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	63	123
Line Yards	111	106
Pass Success	123	73
Havoc	73	101
Finishing Drives	115	112
Quality Drives	91	92

Louisiana Offense vs Southern Miss Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	34	76
Line Yards	24	123
Pass Success	49	112
Havoc	85	52
Finishing Drives	51	108
Quality Drives	65	116

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	130	10
PFF Coverage	131	15
Special Teams SP+	50	103
Middle 8	124	16
Seconds per Play	28.2 (90)	27.4 (73)
Rush Rate	54.4% (59)	57.9% (31)

Despite the poor caliber of defenses in this game, I’m tempted to take the Under 51.

Louisiana’s offense will not be great without Chriss and with Fields at the helm, and its defense matches up with Southern Miss’ big play potential.

But I’ll take the points instead.

Despite a tough year for the Golden Eagles, they're still playing tough. Chriss’ injury is a great equalizer and will bring Louisiana’s run game back to the pack.

I’ll take the Eagles and the points any time you can get double digits.

Pick: Southern Miss +10.5