Tennessee vs Missouri Odds & Prediction: Bet Vols as Favorites?

Last week, Tennessee took a break from SEC play and hosted UConn for a game that was not much more than a scrimmage.

The Volunteers improved to 7-2 with a 59-3 victory over the Huskies. They came in at 13th in the second edition of the CFP rankings and will get their shot at Georgia next week.

Missouri is one spot below Tennessee as the Tigers fell two spots after losing in Athens last Saturday. The Tigers covered as 15.5-point underdogs but now have very long odds to win the SEC East. Tennessee still has to a shot to win the division, but it will need an Ole Miss victory this week and wins over Missouri and Georgia in the next two weeks.

However, slowing down this Missouri offense will not be an easy task. With Tennessee's offense on the other side, we could see a lot of points on the board in Columbia.

Let's dive into the Tennessee vs. Missouri odds and make a prediction for Saturday's SEC college football showdown.

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After reassuming the starting role after Hendon Hooker's departure to the NFL, Joe Milton had big shoes to fill. At times, he has been sporadic, particularly with his accuracy.

However, he is starting to hit his stride as the Vols hit the home stretch. Over his past three games, Milton is averaging 250 passing yards per game and completing 74.6% of his passes with five touchdown passes and no interceptions — that includes a game at Alabama.

Milton's top target this season has been receiver Squirrel White, who has 45 receptions for 556 yards and two touchdowns. The sophomore is tied for sixth in the SEC in receptions and has two 100-yard games this season. Senior Ramel Keyton has been the big-play threat as he is averaging 17.2 yards per catch.

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Tight ends McCallan Castles and Jacob Warren have six touchdown receptions combined, and Tennessee is second in the SEC in tight-end production.

Tennessee is 40th in the FBS in Passing Success Rate but has been even better on the ground as it ranks 27th in Rushing Success Rate. Junior Jaylen Wright is averaging 7.5 yards per carry and ranks third in the SEC with 826 rushing yards.

Touchdown production is down for Wright and junior Jabari Small after they combined for 23 rushing touchdowns last year. This season, they have just five scores, but the Vols still have 17 as a team through nine games.

Tennessee is third nationally with 227.8 rushing yards per game. However, it is also has been stout at stopping the run, allowing just 97.1 rushing yards per game. Tennessee has held six opponents under 100 rushing yards this season and is sixth nationally in Rushing Success Rate defensively.

Tennessee is also 25th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 27th in Coverage Grade, according to Pro Football Focus. The Volunteers' strong pass rush has helped with their efficiency against the pass as they are tied for eighth nationally with 30 sacks as a team. Sophomore edge rusher James Pearce Jr. leads the team with seven sacks while senior defensive lineman Tyler Baron is not far behind him with five.

The Georgia Bulldogs have now won 26 games in a row, but few teams have made them work as hard for those victories as the Missouri Tigers. After narrowly escaping Columbia with a four-point victory last season, Georgia outlasted the Missouri with a nine-point victory last week. Despite possessing the ball for nine fewer minutes, Missouri was outgained by just 22 yards.

While Missouri likely is not interested in moral victories, its battles with Georgia prove that it is not far off from competing with the nation's elite.

However, Missouri already has elite an elite group of receivers led by Luther Burden III, who is tied for 10th in the FBS with 64 receptions and seventh with 958 receiving yards along with seven touchdowns. His status for this week's game is in question after he left last Saturday's game with an apparent injury.

If Burden cannot go, the Tigers will need more from Theo Wease Jr. and Mookie Cooper. But that may not be a tough ask considering that they have combined for 75 receptions for over 900 yards and five touchdowns this season. Freshman Marquis Johnson and sophomore Mekhi Miller would be in line for more snaps as well. Johnson is averaging nearly 30 yards per catch this season.

Junior quarterback Brady Cook is the triggerman and ranks 18th nationally in QBR. Cook is fourth in the SEC in both passing yards and touchdown passes. He has had success in this matchup before as he accounted for 300 total yards and threw three touchdown passes at Tennessee last season. However, he appeared on the injury report this week himself.

Running back Cody Schrader leads the SEC with 919 rushing yards and is second with 10 rushing touchdowns. He has run for 100 yards in four of his last six games, including 112 yards and a touchdown at Georgia last week.

Like Tennessee, Missouri is stout against the run, ranking 15th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 26th with 114.1 rushing yards allowed per game. Linebacker Ty'Ron Hopper leads the team with 53 tackles and also has six tackles for loss and three sacks. He had 10 tackles and a sack at Georgia.

Missouri is a little more vulnerable against the pass. It is 61st in Passing Success Rate, 78th in Coverage Grade and 66th with 229.1 passing yards allowed per game. The Tigers have allowed 250 passing yards or more in five of their past seven games.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tennessee and Missouri match up statistically:

Tennessee Offense vs. Missouri Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	27	15
Line Yards	13	20
Pass Success	40	61
Havoc	9	54
Finishing Drives	78	106
Quality Drives	62	87

Missouri Offense vs. Tennessee Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	61	6
Line Yards	96	10
Pass Success	10	25
Havoc	68	15
Finishing Drives	23	11
Quality Drives	54	27

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	71	61
PFF Coverage	27	78
Special Teams SP+	27	38
Middle 8	12	11
Seconds per Play	21.6 (4)	26.5 (61)
Rush Rate	56.0% (39)	53.3% (66)

When Tennessee and Missouri get together, you can usually expect a lot of points on the board. The over has hit in five of the last seven meetings, and the winning side has scored 50 points or more in those five games.

This year's matchup has a total under the key number of 59 and features potent offenses once again.

However, Missouri's offense's may be a little less potent with Cook and Burden both banged up. I expect Cook to play, but Burden appears to be a true game-time decision. I would also pivot to Tennessee if he is indeed ruled out.

Additionally, Tennessee's has advantages in both Havoc and Finishing Drives on both sides of the ball in this game. Without Burden, Missouri may see a few more drives resulting in field goals instead of touchdowns. While I do prefer the over in this game, Tennessee is the side if Missouri is not at full strength.

Pick: Over 58.5 (If Burden Plays) or Tennessee -1.5 (If Burden is Out)

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