College Football Odds, Prediction for UCLA vs Oregon State: Total Holds Value
Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: UCLA quarterback Dante Moore.
UCLA vs Oregon State Odds
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 54.5 -105o / -115u | +155 |
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 54.5 -105o / -115u | -190 |
The UCLA Bruins make the trip to Corvallis to take on the Oregon State Beavers in Saturday night college football action.
The Pac-12 has long lived as the conference with high-flying passing offenses, capable of producing 100-point games during the late Saturday window. If there are two teams that break the mold, Oregon State and UCLA are ushering in an era of gritty rushing attacks.
Both the Beavers and Bruins have a single loss in the Pac-12 standings, making this a must-win game with three other teams sitting undefeated for the right to play in the conference championship game.
Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith has the Beavers just a single victory away from a third consecutive bowl, a result that will surely send the sixth-year coach to the top of every Power 5 athletic director's list.
UCLA has a single loss at Utah in a grinding game that culminated with a costly turnover from a freshman quarterback in Dante Moore.
The biggest surprise of the season has come on the defensive side of the ball with a new coordinator in place. The Bruins have been one of the most efficient defensive units in Havoc and Success Rate, factors that were on full display against an explosive Washington State offense.
While the Beavers and Bruins aren't necessarily a must-win for the postseason, the loser of this game will be looking at a massive two-game deficit in the Pac-12 standings.
UCLA's hiring of defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn from the staff of the Baltimore Ravens came as a surprise in the offseason. With no prior coordinator experience, Lynn spent the prior 10 seasons as a position coach in the NFL.
The success of Ravens position coaches as defensive coordinators with Michigan football provided the blueprint for college football to raid the NFL staff.
Lynn runs a 4-2-5 scheme on most defensive snaps, pivoting to a 4-3 in known short-yardage attempts. UCLA is one of the heaviest blitz defenses in the nation, generating a whopping 60% success rate.
Preseason All-American Laiatu Latu leads the team with 28 pressures and 18 quarterback hurries. While the pass rush has been terrorizing, safety Jaylin Davies leads the team with four pass breakups, a big part of a coverage grade that ranks second in the nation, per PFF.
While the defense has carried the water during certain parts of the season, UCLA now has plenty of experience in the books for a true freshman quarterback sensation.
Dante Moore ➡️ Logan Loya for SIX 🙌
📺: Pac-12 Networks
📲: https://t.co/v42BPkE478#GoBruinspic.twitter.com/Y4KFnvgsN2— UCLA Football (@UCLAFootball) October 7, 2023
Despite the electricity following Moore in his young career at quarterback, there have been catastrophic plays.
A pair of pick-six plays against the defenses of Washington State and Utah are expected from a true freshman, but a closer look at the numbers show progression.
Moore has 15 big-time throws to just six turnover-worthy plays, as defenses have acknowledged that cover 3 has been the most detrimental to the young quarterback.
The ground-and-pound nature of the Oregon State has been the foundation of the offense, but the surprise of the season has been the explosives in the air and during passing downs. The Beavers have posted 26 passing plays of 20 yards or more, good enough to rank 20th in the nation in long passing plays.
Transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has been fantastic, racking up 13 touchdowns to just four interceptions with a low 1.8% turnover-worthy play rate.
Compared to previous seasons, Uiagalelei's passing numbers have far exceeded his three years and nearly 1,000 dropbacks at Clemson.
Talk about "opposite hash arm strength"… how about a 32 yard out to the opposite hash by DJ Uiagalelei here. DJU had the highest passing grade in his career against Cal on Saturday (93.5) pic.twitter.com/7jPt64ACmW
— Clint Brewster (@clintbrew247) October 9, 2023
Combined with the elusive running of Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick, Oregon State boasts one of the most efficient and now one of the most explosive offenses in the nation.
The struggles for the Beavers have come on the defensive side of the ball, specifically against the run. Oregon State sits outside the top 100 in both tackling and Defensive Rushing Success Rate.
Opponents are creating explosive rushing attempts at a high clip despite a top-40 rank in Defensive Quality Drives and Finishing Drives. Oregon State ranks 120th in passing downs success rate, allowing nearly 19 first downs per game.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UCLA and Oregon State match up statistically:
UCLA Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 55 | 104 | |
| Line Yards | 39 | 18 | |
| Pass Success | 104 | 34 | |
| Havoc | 101 | 25 | |
| Finishing Drives | 103 | 26 | |
| Quality Drives | 62 | 38 |
Oregon State Offense vs. UCLA Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 5 | 20 | |
| Line Yards | 27 | 24 | |
| Pass Success | 44 | 15 | |
| Havoc | 36 | 9 | |
| Finishing Drives | 8 | 3 | |
| Quality Drives | 45 | 3 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 34 | 110 |
| PFF Coverage | 2 | 29 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 84 | 13 |
| Middle 8 | 76 | 32 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.8 (14) | 29.0 (105) |
| Rush Rate | 55.8% (58) | 56.4% (34) |
UCLA vs Oregon State
Betting Pick & Prediction
There will be two different styles of tempo when UCLA and Oregon State meet in Week 7. The Beavers prefer methodical drives at a slow 29 seconds per play, whereas the Bruins move at a quicker pace 0f 23.8 seconds per play.
Oregon State has the ability to push around most defenses in standard downs, but UCLA has been stingy against methodical offenses. The Bruins are third nationally in Defensive Quality Drives thanks to top-20 ranks in Success Rate, Stuff Rate and Havoc.
The ultimate battle is a UCLA defense that ranks third in hard stops taking on an Oregon State offense that sits 12th in momentum killer rate.
The Beavers are sure to find themselves in passing downs, an area where a heavy statistical advantage exists in explosives. UCLA presents cover 1 and cover 3 to most opponents, an advantage for a quarterback in Uiagalelei who has shredded cover 3 this season with a 64% Success Rate.
A similar aspect exists for Moore on the other side of the ball. Oregon State flashes quarters coverage more than almost any other team in FBS. Moore has posted an average Success Rate of 48% against quarters, but an EPA of 0.24 is well above average and signals that explosives are coming for UCLA.
The Action Network Power Ratings call for an Oregon State cover of the market number, but the value is on a projected total of 63.
Both teams will have middling success in running the ball straight at the opposing defenses. Each offense has advantages against opposing coverages in passing downs, which is big for two defenses that are outside the top 100 in broken tackles.
With 55 being the largest key in college football totals, look for a number of explosive plays to get an over to the window.
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