UMass vs Penn State Odds & Picks: Bet the Under?
Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: James Franklin (Penn State)
UMass vs Penn State Odds
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | ML |
+41.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +3000 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | ML |
+41.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -10000 |
If you know anything about James Franklin and Penn State, it’s all about that 1-0 mentality and taking the season one week at a time.
But a game against UMass, with Ohio State on deck, really puts that ideology to the test, as the undefeated Nittany Lions prepare to take on one of the worst teams in the FBS. Franklin even admitted to getting an early start on Ohio State prep during the Nittany Lions’ bye this past week.
UMass is 1-6 and has only played one other Power Five team this season (Auburn), but it's covered three times and is getting a whopping six touchdowns against Penn State.
The Nittany Lions are one of just five teams remaining that are undefeated against the spread, but will Franklin finally pull the dogs off with such a big game only a week away?
UMass opened the season with a 41-30 win at New Mexico State. Since then – well, it hasn't been so great.
The Minutemen have lost six straight since that Week 0 high, as head coach Don Brown (longtime former Michigan defensive coordinator) has dropped to 2-17 in his second tenure at UMass.
Four of the games have been complete blowouts, while two were painfully close. The Minutemen lost by two at Eastern Michigan on a final-minute touchdown and lost in overtime to New Mexico. Auburn, the only Power Five team to face the Minutemen this season, demolished UMass, 59-14.
But just because UMass is 1-6 doesn’t mean the cupboards are completely bare.
Taisun Phommachanh is its best quarterback in recent memory. The former Clemson and Georgia Tech player has passed for at least 250 yards in each of the last two games and is fairly mobile if his offensive line allows for it.
While the offense isn’t a total mess, that’s not the case for the UMass defense. The Minutemen rank 130th and 123rd in Rush and Pass Success Rate Allowed, respectively.
They’ve allowed at least 40 points four times this year (three against non-Power Five opponents) and are one of only eight defenses in the country that allow over 450 yards of offense per game.
A notable defender in this matchup will be cornerback Jordan Mahoney. Mahoney is an NFL-caliber defender and will likely be matched up with KeAndre Lambert-Smith all game, which will force Penn State’s second and third receivers to step up – something they’ve really yet to do this season.
You can’t get to Ohio State without playing UMass first, but just how focused will the Nittany Lions be on one of the worst teams in the country?
Penn State’s offense has been solid this season, but nothing more. It got off to a slow start at Northwestern in its most recent game, only scoring 10 points in the first half, before exploding for 31 more in the final two quarters.
Drew Allar has yet to throw an interception this season on an offense that ranks only 82nd in Pass Success Rate. Outside of Lambert-Smith, only one other wideout has over 100 yards receiving this year, with Dante Cephas just inching over the century mark at 102 yards.
Penn State’s running game — with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen — has kept its offense afloat. The duo has combined for nearly 600 yards and eight rushing touchdowns through five games.
And when this game becomes a blowout and the two-headed monster is pulled out, third-string back Trey Potts, who would probably start on a majority of Big Ten teams, will enter.
The offense hasn’t had to be amazing, however, because the Nittany Lions have one of the best defenses in the country. They lead the nation in passing defense (136.4 yards per game) and are seventh in run defense (74.2 yards per game).
The Penn State front seven will be licking its lips at the notion of seeing the Minutemen often in passing situations in this game. UMass is 112th with 18 sacks allowed, while the Nittany Lions have generated the ninth-most sacks (20).
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UMass and Penn State match up statistically:
UMass Offense vs. Penn State Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 59 | 7 | |
| Line Yards | 45 | 8 | |
| Pass Success | 75 | 1 | |
| Havoc | 114 | 4 | |
| Finishing Drives | 88 | 8 | |
| Quality Drives | 99 | 2 |
Penn State Offense vs. UMass Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 36 | 130 | |
| Line Yards | 35 | 133 | |
| Pass Success | 51 | 123 | |
| Havoc | 3 | 69 | |
| Finishing Drives | 5 | 105 | |
| Quality Drives | 17 | 130 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 113 | 93 |
| PFF Coverage | 121 | 22 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 122 | 107 |
| Middle 8 | 109 | 39 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.7 (97) | 26.9 (69) |
| Rush Rate | 52.2% (76) | 57.3% (21) |
UMass vs Penn State
Betting Pick & Prediction
With a trip to Columbus on deck, this is a textbook lookahead game for Penn State. UMass obviously isn’t a threat for an outright win, but 41.5 points is a massive spread.
Franklin has never faced a non-Power Five team the week before Ohio State, but the Nittany Lions are 1-2 outright in this spot in their last three seasons.
We’ve seen Franklin have a propensity to have his guys play hard until the final whistle in blowouts – whether it was running the offense late against West Virginia or drawing up a fake knee, quarterback draw late against Northwestern.
Penn State beat Delaware earlier this year, 63-7, but that was with a game versus Illinois the ensuing week.
I really don’t want to try and get in Franklin’s head regarding how aggressive he’ll be Saturday afternoon. One would think he’d call the dogs off early with a season-defining game at Ohio State nearby, but you just never know with him.
So, the best bet will be the total of 54.5. This UMass defense is bad, but even if Penn State keeps its foot on the gas, that’s a high number considering it’s really unlikely the Minutemen contribute anything more than a touchdown.
Penn State's offense is also one of the least explosive in the country, as no team has fewer offensive plays of at least 20 yards in length than the Nittany Lions. Penn State will take its time, methodically matriculating the ball down the field.
I can see Penn State starting a little slow and almost exclusively running late, so I think the under is the safe play as the Nittany Lions look ahead to Columbus.
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