Marshall vs UTSA Prediction, Pick, Odds | Frisco Bowl Betting Preview
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Marshall vs UTSA Prediction, Odds
| Marshall Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
Editor's Note: UTSA quarterback Frank Harris will not play in the Frisco Bowl due to a shoulder injury sustained against Tulane on Nov. 24, according to Action Network's Brett McMurphy.
Tuesday night's Marshall vs. UTSA matchup in the Frisco Bowl kicks off a stretch of weeknight games for the college football postseason.
Since the inception of the bowl in 2017, four of the five contests have gone over a point total of 61. Toyota Stadium has played host to plenty of big events from the FCS Championship to Lionel Messi's first road game for Inter Miami.
Both UTSA and Marshall will make their way to the Bermuda grass surface with plenty of motivation.
The Roadrunners entered FBS as an independent with a short stint in the WAC before a decade of Conference USA play. UTSA has failed to win a bowl game in four previous tries, including the 2021 Frisco Bowl with current head coach Jeff Traylor.
With a final send-off for a quarterback who has been the face of the program, the Roadrunners will be highly motivated to get their first bowl victory in their home state.
The motivation comes from a different angle for Marshall.
Head coach Charles Huff has been heavily criticized for comments regarding a Thundering Herd quarterback who hit the transfer portal. However, Marshall came together toward the end of the season, winning two of its last three to qualify for a bowl.
With a running back looking to enter the NFL, there's no shortage of motivation for a victory from the players or coaching staff.
The struggle for Marshall has all been on the offensive side of the football. The Thundering Herd are bottom-five in FBS in terms of creating a quality drive and cashing in on scoring opportunities.
Their failure to establish the rush or create explosives in the passing game starts with a poor rank of 129th in Havoc Allowed. Fumbles have been a consistent issue, but an offensive line that has given up 87 tackles for loss has been the primary driver of inept play all season.
Now, Marshall must deal with the departure of left guard Trent Holler to the transfer portal. The fifth-year senior allowed no sacks and only nine pressures in 725 snaps this season.
Cole Pennington will get the start under center for Marshall in the bowl game after taking over duties against Georgia Southern in Week 11. He has a limited amount of experience, and his short resume features six interceptions and no touchdowns or big-time throws on 80 passing attempts.
The Thundering Herd are expected to lean on its 2-4-5 defense that implements blitz on 32% of snaps.
The defense is led by edge Owen Porter, who leads the team in pressures and has racked up an additional 41 tackles. Marshall ranks top-30 in Defensive Success Rate and Havoc but played its best football in the red zone. The Thundering Herd finished top-10 nationally in Defensive Finishing Drives, allowing just 2.9 points to opponents that crossed the 40-yard line.
If there's one glaring weakness for Marshall's defense, it's a penchant for allowing explosive plays. The Thundering Herd allowed 13 rushing attempts to go for at least 30 yards, ranking 123rd nationally.
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Frank Harris has arguably been the best Group of Five quarterback over the past several seasons. The fifth-year senior has accumulated nearly 12,000 passing yards and 120 all-purpose touchdowns.
With Harris, UTSA has a balanced attack, using inside zone on the ground to complement plenty of screens, hitches and slants in the passing game.
Move aside Ron Nirenberg, the real Mayor of San Antonio is UTSA’s Frank Harris! HIS 6TH TD (3 Passing, 3 Rushing) TONIGHT pic.twitter.com/5eKzIdbEaG
— Sickos Committee (@SickosCommittee) November 18, 2023
Kevorian Barnes and Robert Henry lead a rushing attack that ranks fifth nationally in explosives.
Defensive coordinator Jess Loepp has seen improvement from the Roadrunners in his fourth season. The UTSA rush defense improved to a top-35 unit across the board, jumping to as high as 12th in the Havoc department.
Even with the loss of edge Trey Moore to the transfer portal, a slew of linebackers have recorded nearly as many tackles, stops and pressures. UTSA ranks 13th in tackles for loss, consistently playing behind the line of scrimmage.
The secondary produced a coverage grade of 110th while playing one of the highest rates of Cover 0. UTSA is content with blitzing opposing offenses with the risk of giving up the big play.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UTSA and Marshall match up statistically:
UTSA Offense vs. Marshall Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 111 | 13 | |
| Line Yards | 102 | 26 | |
| Pass Success | 41 | 26 | |
| Havoc | 63 | 31 | |
| Finishing Drives | 34 | 9 | |
| Quality Drives | 29 | 62 |
Marshall Offense vs. UTSA Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 110 | 35 | |
| Line Yards | 118 | 33 | |
| Pass Success | 64 | 47 | |
| Havoc | 81 | 87 | |
| Finishing Drives | 128 | 90 | |
| Quality Drives | 127 | 59 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 77 | 45 |
| PFF Coverage | 110 | 34 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 23 | 118 |
| Middle 8 | 30 | 113 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.4 (18) | 26.1 (47) |
| Rush Rate | 53.4% (68) | 51.6% (94) |
Marshall vs UTSA
Betting Prediction, Pick
The winner of the Frisco Bowl will be determined by a single factor: the defenses' ability to make the opposing the quarterback uncomfortable.
UTSA has been fantastic at implementing inside zone with a 57% Success Rate, occasionally pivoting to less effective counter concepts. The Marshall defense has met the national average in terms of Success Rate when it comes to stopping inside zone, allowing big plays on just 13% of attempts.
The Thundering Herd have had issues defending counter concepts — an area UTSA can expose.
If there's a strong bullet point for Marshall, its open-field tackling has been excellent this season. The Thundering Herd sit 15th in broken tackles allowed, so a number of UTSA explosives could be defused.
The Marshall offensive line must contend with replacing one of its best players along with protecting Pennington. Marshall's near-dead-last rank in Havoc Allowed and UTSA's high rank in Defensive Havoc means the Roadrunners will be in the backfield all evening.
Marshall running back Rasheen Ali may be the only reason the Herd move the chains or create scoring opportunities.
They utilize inside and outside zone, but neither comes with consistent success. Plus, the Roadrunners have been excellent at shutting down outside zone from opposing offenses all season.
There are plenty of advantages on both sides of the ball for UTSA, which is looking to pick up its first bowl victory in Harris' final game.
The Action Network power ratings project the Roadrunners by 11, so any steam toward a two-touchdown spread would slightly favor Marshall.
There are plenty of elements conducive to quick scoring here. UTSA has a significant upper hand in creating rush explosives, while both defenses are top Havoc units that can create short fields for the offense.
Pick: Over 53 or Better
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