College Football Odds, Picks: How We’re Betting Saturday Night’s Slate, Including Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma
- For the last time in 2021, we're blessed with a college football regular-season Saturday night slate.
- Our staff is taking advantage with three bets for the late slate.
- Check out how we're betting Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma, Clemson vs. South Carolina, and Notre Dame vs. Stanford.
Here it is. The final evening slate of the final week of the 2021 college football season.
While conference championships remain on the schedule, along with bowl season and the National Championship, we’ll still have plenty of college football to bet on. But it won’t quite be the same as sweating the Saturday night late game.
So, let’s make the most of what we have while we have it.
Our staff broke down and shared a betting pick for Bedlam between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, the Battle of the Palmetto State between Clemson and South Carolina, and a classic battle between Notre Dame and Stanford.
It’s been a fun regular season, indeed. Now, let’s close it out on a high note.
Week 13 College Football Best Bets
Our Top 3 Picks for Saturday Night
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football staff is targeting from Saturday evening’s slate of games (7:30 to 8 p.m. ET). Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State
This is purely an anti-Spencer Sanders play.
The junior quarterback has started nine regular-season games against ranked opponents in his career. He’s thrown just nine touchdowns in those contests against 13 interceptions.
This season, Oklahoma State has offset Sanders’ less-than-stellar play in big spots with a consistent running game and a secretly awesome defense. The Pokes have a top-three unit in the following metrics:
- Points Per Game Allowed (14.8)
- Yards Per Play Allowed (4.0)
- Third-Down Defense (23.19%)
- Total Defense (253.8 Yards)
- Sack Rate (11.58%)
These stats are borderline unassailable. But allow me to poke a few holes in the Pokes’ résumé. Oklahoma State has faced exactly one top-30 offense (TCU).
Outside of that, they’ve feasted on outgunned opponents with mediocre quarterback play. The best quarterback they’ve faced all season is either Brock Purdy or Hank Bachmeier. That pairing ranks 40th and 35th in total QBR, respectively.
By QBR standards, Purdy and Bachmeier are right at the 70-score level. In Caleb Williams’ six games (five starts and Red River Showdown off the bench), the freshman phenom has topped a QBR of 94 four times and sports an average of 88.7.
I’ll back the better quarterback in a rivalry absolutely owned by the Sooners in the past 20 years (17-4 since 2000).
Pick: Oklahoma ML +160
Clemson vs. South Carolina
Clemson finally found its offensive groove 11 games into the season, putting 48 points up on Wake Forest and recording over 500 total yards of offense — something it didn’t even do against UConn.
On the other side, South Carolina may still be partying after becoming bowl eligible following a victory over Auburn last week.
There are big advantages for the Clemson defense and a huge gap in Finishing Drives for the Tigers defense, which ranks fourth in the metric compared to the Gamecocks offense at 112th.
Other than these two teams ranking top-10 in special teams, there are not a ton of advantages for the Gamecocks.
Clemson knows that an ACC Tier 1 bowl could be on the line, a bigger upgrade than the current Cheez-It Bowl projection from our Brett McMurphy.
The Tigers are going to blow out a very lucky South Carolina team that is in a hangover spot from reaching bowl eligibility.
Give me Clemson -11.
Pick: Clemson -11
Notre Dame vs. Stanford
By Shawn Burns
Notre Dame is rolling, and it’s won six in a row after losing to Cincinnati. The Irish have a legitimate shot to make the College Football Playoff for the second consecutive season.
Stanford, meanwhile, is 3-8 and has lost six in a row. Last week against California, the Cardinal allowed 41 points and 636 yards of total offense in a 30-point loss.
Over the past six games, Notre Dame has averaged 38 points and over 200 yards rushing per game.
Running back Kyren Williams, who struggled early this season, has found his footing with his strong offensive line, and the running game has taken off.
It took a few games for the Irish to mesh with new defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman, but they have played as well as any unit in the country over the past month. Notre Dame hasn’t allowed a touchdown in the past three games, and it’s suffocating opponents.
Stanford quarterback Tanner McKee returned from injury to face California, and it was a rocky start for the offense. It scored 11 points and recorded only 282 yards of total offense.
The Cardinal defense has struggled all season, allowing 31 points per game and ranking 127th in rushing defense and 125th in yards per rush. Cal ran for well over 300 yards last week, and that doesn’t bode well with Notre Dame coming to town.
Notre Dame is playing excellent football, and it needs to continue to win decisively to impress the CFP committee.
Expect a heavy dose of Williams and another dominant defensive performance. The Irish win big Saturday night over the overmatched Cardinal.