Saturday's Week 4 college football slate features plenty of under-the-radar matchups that may not get the coverage they deserve.
With that said, I decided to dive into four of those matchups on Saturday: Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech, Northern Illinois vs. Georgia State, Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State and Tulsa vs. Arkansas.
Let's take a look at my Week 4 college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Saturday, September 26.
Sam Houston vs Texas Tech Pick
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+34.5 -110 | 56.5 -106o / -114u | +4000 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-34.5 -110 | 56.5 -106o / -114u | |
Sam Houston has been vastly improved with an offense that has been much more competent, but it's been the defense that has made the greatest strides.
The 2025 stop unit allowed 483 yards per game and seven yards per play, and the question coming into this season was how this team could possibly be any better this year. While the roster isn't filled with high-profile names, the improvements made by the Bearkats defense have been nothing short of remarkable.
The pass rush has been stronger, and SHSU has cut its yards per play down to just 4.4 on the season.
On third down, the Bearkats have allowed just a 23% conversion rate, and the result has been two competitive losses, a blowout win over an FCS team and a 3-0 record against the number.
The offense still hasn't found a tremendous amount of success on the ground, but the “Dairy Raid” system brought over by Phil Longo is starting to produce. In fact, quarterback Landyn Locke has thrown for 300 or more yards in every game this season.
This test is likely unwinnable for SHSU, but a decent showing will give the Bearkats the confidence to compete with every team on the schedule when it enters league play after the bye week.
Texas Tech has gone 0-3 ATS, with a lot made about how different this team looks when compared to the 2025 Big 12 Championship team.
The Red Raiders have won each of their first three games and passed a major test last week against Houston at home and will now look to get the offense going here before a road test at Colorado.
Quarterback Will Hammond has been efficient, completing 72% of his passes for 744 yards. The ground game has been solid, with J’Koby Williams and Cameron Dickey carrying the bulk of the load.
This offense isn't as flashy or explosive, but there's talent to work with. Plus, Hammond is getting more and more comfortable with every game he plays coming back from injury.
The defense has been pretty good against the pass this season, and the Havoc has been decent. This isn't the same Havoc-creating, lockdown defense that completely stifled the opposition last year, but the unit is having success and will be a problem for opponents.
I think Texas Tech has looked about as bad as anyone could have imagined, and SHSU has been very impressive up to this point this season. But that's actually giving us a little value on the home team.
Our Action Network Power Ratings have Texas Tech favored by 44, and with a spread below 35, a play on the home team may be warranted here. I lean TTU -34.5.
Pick: Texas Tech -34.5 (Lean)
Northern Illinois vs Georgia State Pick
| Northern Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 56.5 -112o / -108u | +330 |
| Georgia State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 56.5 -112o / -108u | -430 |
Northern Illinois is not a good defensive football team, as the Huskies rank outside of the top 115 nationally in Success Rate allowed, Havoc and rushing explosiveness allowed.
The defense was overwhelmed against Iowa in the opener and gave up three touchdowns to FCS Illinois State before the offense could get any momentum going.
Last week, the offense looked a little better on the road against Arizona. Taron Dickens threw the ball well, and NIU actually raced out to a 10-0 lead before Arizona scored the next 42 points of the game.
Dickens is starting to develop a rhythm with DeAree Rogers and La’Don Bryant, so the explosive plays could start showing up this week against Georgia State.
The Panthers are one of the most improved teams in the country and deserved a much better result against UCF last week. The Panthers outgained UCF and are averaging 510 yards per game and nearly seven yards per play.
The play of quarterback Cameran Brown has been game-changing for this offense. He has shown poise, playmaking ability and solid arm strength.
The offense is using some tempo while gashing its opponents on the ground, as Georgia State has scored 30 or more points in every game this year.
The defense still has a ways to go to be considered above-average in the Sun Belt, and the explosives allowed on the ground have been a problem, as has early down success.
Dickens should have his best game of the season, and NIU and Georgia State should be involved in a fun back-and-forth affair.
I think we see points in this game, and I like the over in this matchup. Both of these defenses are surrendering explosive plays, and we should see very little Havoc against these two quarterbacks.
Brown will continue to build upon his successful start, and the Panthers should score 35-38 points in this matchup. NIU cannot run the ball and should seek to counter using Dickens' playmaking ability through the air.
The Huskies could have their best offensive showing of the season. I like the over in this matchup.
Pick: Over 55.5
Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State Pick
| Middle Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -118 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +235 |
| Jacksonville State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -104 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -295 |
MTSU has been a much more competitive team this year with the improved play of quarterback Roman Gagliano, who took over as the starter late last year.
Gagliano has completed 60% of his passes with a 6:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and his connection with receiver Cam’ron Lacy has really helped the offensive production.
Middle Tennessee has run the ball a lot better than at any time during Derek Mason’s tenure. The Blue Raiders are averaging 5.6 yards per rushing attempt, and the offensive line has done a great job preventing sacks and negative plays.
The Blue Raiders defense has prevented teams from accruing the long explosive plays and cheap scores that plagued this unit last season. There's not much of a pass rush, but the Blue Raiders have been better at getting off the field on third down.
Special teams have also improved.
Jacksonville State has been severely disappointing, as the ground game has not been as effective and 6-foot-8 wide receiver Deondre Johnson continues to be underutilized in the offense.
The Gamecocks had several chances in the opener against North Dakota State to cash in while in the red zone and failed, and after a win over FCS Eastern Kentucky, completely botched a late-game closeout on the road against Ohio.
If not for late-game heroics last week, this team would have a lot of soul-searching to do, specifically on the offensive end.
The defense hasn't been great, but the Gamecocks have required their opponents to move the ball methodically and without the benefit of explosive plays. Jacksonville State ranks just 98th nationally in Success Rate allowed on early downs and has struggled to defend the run.
MTSU has the better run game and the better quarterback in this matchup. Jacksonville State hasn't played to the level we saw last season, and MTSU has exceeded expectations up to this point.
I think the Blue Raiders can take Jacksonville State to the wire in this game, which feels like one between even teams. I would look to bet MTSU +7.5 here.
Pick: Middle Tennessee +7.5 (Lean)
Tulsa vs Arkansas Pick
| Tulsa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -122 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 +100 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -285 |
Tulsa has been a really fun team to watch this season. The defense is vastly improved, and the offense has done enough to grind out close wins the first couple of weeks.
Last week against East Texas A&M, backup quarterback Dexter Williams II threw three touchdown passes in the 42-0 win, and the ground game has been strong with Damari Alston and Trequan Jones carrying the bulk of the workload.
The offensive line has played outstanding football while limiting negative plays as well.
The defensive improvements made by Tre Lamb and this staff have been outstanding. At the end of 2024, this defense had completely quit. The effort was low, and the Hurricane couldn't secure stops or keep points off the scoreboard.
Last year, the defense cut 100 yards per game and 14 points per game off those totals, and this year’s defense has created chaos along the defensive line all season.
A win over Arkansas would give Tulsa two P4 wins this season and would put the Golden Hurricane squarely in the driver's seat to secure the G6 College Football Playoff bid.
Arkansas has taken some body blows the last couple of weeks in back-to-back blowout losses against Utah and Georgia, as the roster hasn't been rebuilt enough to win games against high-level competition.
The fan base is already getting restless with the performances, and head coach Ryan Silverfield is already feeling the pressure of losing in Fayetteville.
Two quarterbacks have been used in AJ Hill and KJ Jackson, and neither has been outstanding. However, there's talent in the receiver room, and this offense is capable of stressing the Tulsa defense.
I wouldn't be stunned to see a lot of effort from the Hogs this week at home in one of their last real chances to notch a win this season.
This is going to be a hard-fought, competitive game, and based on what we've seen from Tulsa, this team will have a chance to win late in the second half.
It's disappointing that quarterback Baylor Hayes is out with injury, but Williams will provide a running element out of the position that could create issues for the Arkansas defense.
I would want +7.5 in order to play Tulsa here, and I do think this American team is really good.
Pick: Tulsa +7 (Target +7.5)
