Sharps Betting Friday’s Western Kentucky-Middle Tennessee State Over/Under
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders quarterback Brent Stockstill. Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
- Middle Tennessee State is a 13.5-point home favorite against Western Kentucky on Friday night (8 p.m. ET, CBS Sports).
- Professional bettors are laying off the spread, and are instead focusing on the over/under in this matchup.
The public cleaned up last night, as all three college football favorites covered and all three overs cashed without a sweat.
Recreational bettors will look to keep the good times rolling tonight, while sportsbooks and wiseguys hope to bounce back.
Using the betting tools available at The Action Network and Sports Insights, we’ve identified sharp action on tonight’s Conference USA showdown between Western Kentucky (1-7) and Middle Tennessee State (5-3).
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee State
- Sharp angle: Under (moved from 54 to 52.5)
- Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
Average Joes see a moderately low total, two poor defenses and that’s all they need to know. Over all day.
However, in the the most lopsided over/under play of the day, more than 81% of bets are going over, yet the total has fallen from 54 to 52.5.
This is a classic example of reverse line movement.
Anytime the bookmakers move the line in the opposite direction of the public betting it’s a clear indication that wiseguys got down on the other side.
After all, why would the books drop the total to give public backers a better number and easier shot at covering? Because pros hammered the under, creating big liability.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we’ve tracked four separate reverse line moves on the the Under. Pros at Buckeye, CRIS, JustBet and SIA all hammered the Under between 53 and 54.
This overload of smart under action caused the total to fall to 52.5, revealing exactly why the number has dropped despite steady recreational money taking the over.