Why the Opening Coin Flip Matters for Betting TCU vs. Georgia
Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: Georgia head coach Kirby Smart.
The coin flip has become one of the more crucial starting points for betting. Not only is the “Middle 8” a key component to live and halftime wagering, but a number of props also gain greater value with any inkling as to who wants the ball first.
Georgia is as steady as they come, dating back to Action Network’s National Championship preview from a year ago.
Last season, Georgia won the coin flip five times in 2021 and deferred on every occasion. This season, the Bulldogs have won the coin toss just four times. In all winning instances, Kirby Smart elected to defer to the second half.
If Georgia wins the coin toss, the biggest shock of the game might be the Bulldogs offense taking the field first.
Georgia started on defense in nine games this season, allowing a score on the first drive only to Georgia Tech in Week 13. The remaining drives ended with seven punts and a failed fourth-down conversion by Kentucky.
When Georgia started the game with the ball, the results varied from a couple of punts, touchdowns and a fumble.
Georgia’s sample set of winning the coin toss is at nine over the past 15 months, the same number of times TCU won the coin toss this season.
Sonny Dykes deferred in the opening game against Colorado. The Buffaloes were unsuccessful in putting points on the board in the opening drive of the season, but Dykes quickly reversed paths once Max Duggan became the starting quarterback.
The Horned Frogs took the ball the following three games against SMU, Oklahoma and Kansas. Once the second half of the season started, the focus shifted back to the defense, as Dykes deferred in the final five coin flips won by TCU.
Just like the Bulldogs, the Horned Frogs defense gave up just one score on an opening drive this season. Of the seven remaining games in which TCU’s offense took the field first, the Frogs scored all but twice.
There are a number of factors that are predictable in the coin toss, primarily that Georgia will undoubtedly want its defense on the field first. If TCU wins the toss, the second half of the season indicates the Horned Frogs may put their defense on the field first.
Dykes may elect to put the offense on the field first considering Georgia’s performance in the “Middle 8” against Ohio State. The Bulldogs won the Peach Bowl despite generating just two successful plays in 12 snaps in the four minutes before and after halftime against the Buckeyes.