Saturday's slate is stacked with sluggers, from the game's active home run leader to a former 60-homer catcher trying to salvage his season.
We rounded up 10 home run props from around the league on Polymarket, spanning every time slot from the early afternoon games to the West Coast nightcap.
| ⚾ Game | 🏷️ Player HR Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 (Yes) | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| COL vs DET | Spencer Torkelson HR: Yes | 17.13¢ | $483.77 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| NYM vs NYY | Aaron Judge HR: Yes | 30¢ | $233.33 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| PIT vs CHC | Oneil Cruz HR: Yes | 22.25¢ | $349.44 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| BAL vs TOR | Alejandro Kirk HR: Yes | 9.92¢ | $908.06 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| CLE vs MIN | Jose Ramirez HR: Yes | 14¢ | $614.29 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| LAD vs MIA | Max Muncy HR: Yes | 18¢ | $455.56 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| CIN vs MIL | Jackson Chourio HR: Yes | 17.56¢ | $469.48 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| PHI vs ATL | Kyle Schwarber HR: Yes | 25¢ | $300.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| TEX vs ARI | Corbin Carroll HR: Yes | 16¢ | $525.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| SEA vs ATH | Cal Raleigh HR: Yes | 27¢ | $270.37 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Along with the current Polymarket promo code: ACTION, which allows new users to Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus!
Best Home Run Bets Today for Rockies vs Tigers – Spencer Torkelson (Yes | 17.13¢)
‼️ The Pick: Spencer Torkelson 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 17.13¢
Torkelson has had a streaky power season, including a stretch of 109 plate appearances and 28 games without a home run earlier this month.
He snapped that drought with a walk-off blast, his 21st of the season, and the metrics behind his swing (elite chase rate, strong bat speed and hard-hit rate) suggest the power has been there even during the cold stretches.
Detroit (68-79) is fighting for playoff positioning, and Torkelson's bat matters more down the stretch than his batting average might suggest.
Colorado (55-92) has been one of the league's worst teams and sends out Gordon, who is 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA, arguably the softest matchup on the entire board.
This ticket bought 17.13¢ per share on a $100 stake, which works out to roughly 584 shares. At $1 per winning share, that's a gross payout near $584, or about $484 in profit. The board's own "To Win" figure landed at $556.00, a bit under our math, which is normal here since larger orders move through the order book and pick up small fee drag along the way. That gap shows up on every ticket in this piece, so we won't re-explain it each time.
- If Torkelson goes deep: the shares settle at $1 each, netting roughly $484 in profit on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Against the league's worst ERA-leading staff on the board, this price looks generous for a hitter capable of a multi-homer week when he's locked in.
Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today for Mets vs Yankees – Aaron Judge (Yes | 30¢)
‼️ The Pick: Aaron Judge 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 30¢
Judge is a few games back into his return from a rib stress fracture that cost him the summer, and the Yankees have been deliberate about ramping his workload back up.
An eight-time All-Star and three-time AL MVP, Judge's talent was never the question during his absence, just his timing and volume of at-bats.
New York (85-62) is in a strong position in the standings, while the Mets (68-79) counter with Thornton, a 3-5 lefty carrying a 3.53 ERA, a fair test for a hitter still finding his rhythm.
A $100 stake at 30¢ buys about 333 shares, for a gross payout near $333 and profit of roughly $233. The board's To Win number of $319.90 lines up with that same small gap seen across this board.
- If Judge homers: shares settle at $1 each for about $233 in profit.
- If he doesn't: the $100 stake is gone.
This is the shortest price on the board for good reason, Judge remains one of the most dangerous hitters in the sport even in a limited role.
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Best Home Run Bets Today for Pirates vs Cubs – Oneil Cruz (Yes | 22.25¢)
‼️ The Pick: Oneil Cruz 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 22.25¢
Cruz has been Pittsburgh's best hitter since returning from injury, batting .315 with an OPS near .940 across his last 20 games, with four home runs in that stretch.
Earlier this week he hit the hardest-tracked home run of the entire 2026 season, a 117.4 mph missile that traveled 467 feet, part of a run that has seen him post the highest exit velocities anywhere in the sport.
Pittsburgh (74-74) is still technically alive in the NL Wild Card picture, and every extra-base swing from their most explosive hitter matters.
Chicago (82-66) sends out Holmes, who is 6-7 with a sharp 2.83 ERA, a genuinely tough draw and the toughest arm most of tonight's hitters will see.
A $100 buy at 22.25¢ comes out to about 449 shares, for a gross payout near $449 and profit of roughly $349. The board's To Win figure of $429.34 sits a little under that, consistent with the pattern here.
- If Cruz goes deep: shares pay $1 each for about $349 in profit.
- If not: the $100 stake is lost entirely.
Even against a quality starter, a hitter who just produced the hardest-hit ball of the season deserves respect at this price.
Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today for Orioles vs Blue Jays – Alejandro Kirk (Yes | 9.92¢)
‼️ The Pick: Alejandro Kirk 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 9.92¢
Kirk missed over two months this season with a fractured thumb, a significant blow to a Blue Jays lineup that has otherwise dealt with a long list of injuries.
Since returning, he has been a key part of Toronto's late-season surge, and his low single-digit home run total this year reflects both the missed time and the simple fact that catchers homer less often than the sluggers elsewhere on this board.
Toronto (73-75) is fighting to get back into the Wild Card picture, and Baltimore (72-76) counters with Bradish, who is 7-13 with a 3.91 ERA.
A $100 stake at 9.92¢ buys about 1,008 shares, for a gross payout near $1,008 and profit of roughly $908. The board's own To Win number came in at $956.20.
- If Kirk connects: shares settle at $1 each for about $908 in profit on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost.
The longest odds on this board reflect a catcher's low home run rate more than any red flag, and the payout multiple compensates accordingly for those willing to take the swing.
Best Home Run Bets Today for Guardians vs Twins – Jose Ramirez (Yes | 14¢)
‼️ The Pick: Jose Ramirez 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 14¢
Ramirez is having a down year by his own lofty standards after a hamate fracture cost him five weeks in the middle of the season, but he has shown real signs of life since returning.
Over his last 15 games he's slashing .293/.358/.447, and he drove in four runs with a home run this past Sunday, a sign the timing and strength are coming back.
Cleveland (75-73) is fighting for a Wild Card spot, and Minnesota (69-78) sends out Prielipp, a 4-7 lefty with a 5.25 ERA, a favorable matchup on paper.
A $100 buy at 14¢ comes out to about 714 shares, for a gross payout near $714 and profit of roughly $614. The board's To Win figure of $679.21 tracks with the usual order-book gap.
- If Ramirez connects: shares pay $1 each for about $614 in profit.
- If not: the $100 stake is lost.
A future Hall of Famer working his way back to form against a struggling left-hander is exactly the kind of combination that can make a modest price pay off big.
Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today for Dodgers vs Marlins – Max Muncy (Yes | 18¢)
‼️ The Pick: Max Muncy 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 18¢
Muncy hit his 27th home run of the season earlier this week against Cincinnati, keeping his power numbers on pace with a career that has featured four different 35-homer seasons.
He's a three-time All-Star and three-time World Series champion, and Los Angeles (90-57) holds a clear lead in the race for the NL's number two seed, so Muncy's bat still matters plenty down the stretch.
Miami (72-76) starts Phillips, who is 5-6 with a 3.51 ERA, a fair but not overwhelming test.
A $100 stake at 18¢ buys about 556 shares, for a gross payout near $556 and profit of roughly $456. The board's To Win figure of $529.50 sits in that same range we've seen throughout this board.
- If Muncy connects: shares pay $1 each for about $456 in profit.
- If not: the $100 stake is lost entirely.
A veteran slugger with a track record of exactly this kind of power surge, against a middle-of-the-road starter, is a reasonable price to attack.
Best Home Run Bets Today for Reds vs Brewers – Jackson Chourio (Yes | 17.56¢)
‼️ The Pick: Jackson Chourio 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 17.56¢
Chourio opened the season on the injured list with a fractured hand, but since the start of August he's been playing the best baseball of his career, batting .325 with a .946 OPS and 10 home runs over a 37-game stretch.
He homered in back-to-back games against the Cubs earlier this week, and at 22 years old he's already joined Alex Rodriguez and Mike Trout as the only players with three straight seasons of 20-plus homers and 15-plus steals before turning 23.
Milwaukee (92-56) has the best record in baseball, and Cincinnati (69-78) sends out Singer, a struggling 6-13 arm with a 5.03 ERA, one of the more favorable matchups on this board for the opposing lineup.
A $100 stake at 17.56¢ buys about 569 shares, for a gross payout near $569 and profit of roughly $469. The board's To Win figure of $542.77 tracks with the usual order-book gap.
- If Chourio connects: shares pay $1 each for about $469 in profit.
- If not: the $100 stake is lost.
A young star in the middle of a career-best stretch, against one of the league's most hittable starters, makes this one of the better value plays on the board.
Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today for Phillies vs Braves – Kyle Schwarber (Yes | 25¢) (Editor's Pick)
‼️ The Pick: Kyle Schwarber 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 25¢
This is the pick we're most excited about on this whole board, and it's the one we're putting real money on tonight.
Schwarber leads all of Major League Baseball with 44 home runs, three clear of Pete Crow-Armstrong in second place, and he is not showing any signs of slowing down.
He hit a grand slam earlier this week against Houston, his fourth home run in five games, and during that stretch he's batting .350 with a 1.385 OPS.
Atlanta (87-61) counters with Mahle, who is 5-10 with a 4.05 ERA, a matchup that leans toward the hitter given how well Schwarber has been squaring up the ball lately.
A $100 stake at 25¢ buys 400 shares exactly, for a gross payout of $400 and profit of $300. The board's own To Win number came in at $382.76.
- If Schwarber homers: shares settle at $1 each for $300 in profit on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
The league's active home run leader, in the middle of a four-homers-in-five-games stretch, against a starter with an ERA over 4.00, is the shape of trade we like making on a night like this.
Best Home Run Bets Today for Rangers vs Diamondbacks – Corbin Carroll (Yes | 16¢)
‼️ The Pick: Corbin Carroll 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 16¢
Carroll has been playing through discomfort for stretches of this season, and his numbers since the All-Star break (a .215 average with six home runs) sit well below his career norms.
He was cleared to play after a precautionary MRI this week, which is a good sign for a three-time All-Star who is still just 26 years old and has 19 home runs on the season.
Arizona (79-69) is fighting the Padres for an NL Wild Card spot with a couple weeks left, so every game matters for a team that needs its top hitters going.
Texas (72-76) sends out Rocker, who is 5-11 with a 4.61 ERA, a favorable draw for a hitter who has plenty of pop even in a down stretch.
A $100 buy at 16¢ comes out to 625 shares exactly, for a gross payout of $625 and profit of $525. The board's To Win figure of $595.00 lands in the same familiar range.
- If Carroll goes deep: shares pay $1 each for $525 in profit on the $100 stake.
- If not: the $100 stake is lost outright.
A talented hitter who was just cleared to play, against one of the softer arms on this board, makes for an interesting price for those willing to take on some recent-form risk.
Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today for Mariners vs Athletics – Cal Raleigh (Yes | 27¢)
‼️ The Pick: Cal Raleigh 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 27¢
Raleigh is trying to salvage a difficult follow-up to his record-setting 60-homer 2025 season, but the last few weeks have looked a lot more like the version of him that ran away with last year's Home Run Derby.
Over his last 15 games he's batting .306 with a 1.281 OPS and eight home runs, a huge jump from his season-long numbers, and he added a two-run shot against the Athletics earlier this month.
Seattle (69-79) is well out of the race, but Raleigh has nothing left to play for except padding a resume that already includes the most home runs ever by a catcher or a switch-hitter in a single season.
Oakland (60-88) counters with Jump, a 6-10 lefty with a 5.12 ERA, one of the softer arms remaining on the schedule.
A $100 stake at 27¢ buys about 370 shares, for a gross payout near $370 and profit of roughly $270. The board's To Win figure of $354.81 sits in that same range we've seen throughout this board.
- If Raleigh connects: shares pay $1 each for about $270 in profit.
- If not: the $100 stake is lost entirely.
Closing out this board on a hitter who was the best power bat in baseball as recently as last year, in the middle of his best stretch of this season, feels like a fitting way to wrap things up.
Use Polymarket Promo Code 'ACTION' to Trade These Home Run Bets Today
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- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
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Best Home Run Bets Today: Final Thoughts
Ten games spanning the entire day, from an early Rockies-Tigers matinee to a Mariners nightcap on the West Coast, with storylines ranging from a rookie hot streak to a former MVP trying to recapture his best form.
Kirk and Ramirez carry real caution from injury-shortened seasons, while Schwarber and Cruz are priced up for good reason given how hot both bats have been, and several of tonight's opposing starters carry ERAs north of 4.50.
These MLB home run predictions today will keep moving right up to first pitch, so check the live board on Polymarket's prediction markets before you trade.
Polymarket Promo Code FAQs
What is the current Polymarket promo code?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $50 trading bonus for new users who deposit $10.
Which pick on this board is the Editor's Pick?
Our featured trade tonight is Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run against the Braves at 25¢, based on his MLB-leading 44 home runs and recent four-homers-in-five-games stretch.
Which player on this list has the cheapest home run contract?
Alejandro Kirk carries the lowest price on this board at 9.92¢ to hit a home run against the Orioles, reflecting both his lower home run total after missing over two months with a thumb injury and the generally lower home run rate for catchers.
Which player is most heavily favored to homer tonight?
Aaron Judge carries the highest Yes price on this board at 30¢, even with the uncertainty around his workload just days into his return from injury.
Which matchup features the toughest opposing starter?
Oneil Cruz draws the toughest arm on the board in the Cubs' Clay Holmes, who carries a 6-7 record and a 2.83 ERA.
How do Polymarket home run contracts work?
Each contract resolves Yes if the named player hits at least one home run in that game, and No if they don't, with the contract settling at $1 per share for the winning side and $0 for the losing side.
How do I use the Polymarket promo code?
Sign up through the link on this page, make a qualifying deposit of at least $10, and the ACTION promo code will apply automatically to credit your $50 trading bonus.
When do these home run contracts resolve?
Each of these ten contracts resolves at the conclusion of its respective game today, once the final box score is official.
Are these the only home run props available on Polymarket today?
No, Polymarket lists home run and other player prop markets across the full MLB slate beyond the ten games covered in this piece.
