Best Home Run Bets Today | Top 10 MLB Home Run Predictions Today (Polymarket Odds)

The best home run bets today include a number of sluggers chasing round numbers this Friday night as we near the end of the regular season.

We rounded up the top 10 MLB home run predictions today from around the league on Polymarket, from a rookie chasing history to a superstar just back from injury.

Here's a quick breakdown:

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Best Home Run Bets Today for Pirates vs Cubs – Pete Crow-Armstrong (Yes | 21.34¢)

‼️ The Pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 21.34¢

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Crow-Armstrong is in the middle of the best power season in Cubs history for a left-handed hitter, and he's not slowing down as the calendar turns toward October.

He hit his 41st home run of the season earlier this week, a solo shot in the ninth inning that came off a reliever who hadn't allowed a home run in 55 innings.

Crow-Armstrong is now the current favorite for NL MVP, and the Cubs (81-66) sit about 10 games back of Milwaukee in the NL Central while still holding a top NL Wild Card spot, so every game still matters for his lineup.

Pittsburgh (74-73) sends Dotel to the mound, who carries a 1-4 record and a 4.41 ERA, a matchup that leans in the hitter's favor on paper.

This ticket bought 21.34¢ per share on a $100 stake, which works out to roughly 468 shares. At $1 per winning share, that's a gross payout near $468, or about $368 in profit. The board's own "To Win" figure landed at $447.37, a bit under our math, which is normal here since larger orders move through the order book and pick up small fee drag along the way. That gap shows up on every ticket in this piece, so we won't re-explain it each time.

• If Crow-Armstrong goes deep: the shares settle at $1 each, netting roughly $368 in profit on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.

At better than 4-to-1 on a hitter running this hot against an underperforming starter, the risk/reward here leans favorable even with the daily variance a single game brings.

Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today for Angels vs Nationals – James Wood (Yes | 18.27¢)

‼️ The Pick: James Wood 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 18.27¢

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Wood is still working back to full strength after an oblique injury cost him time this summer, and the price here reflects some real caution around his workload.

In his first games back from the injured list, he went 4-for-13 with two doubles over three games and picked up his first stolen base since activation, both signs the timing is starting to return.

He's a two-time All-Star with 30 home runs already this season, so the raw power is not in question, just the current ramp-up.

Washington (67-81) gets a tougher assignment on the mound tonight, with the Angels (56-90) countering with Kikuchi, who is 1-5 with a 4.96 ERA, a line that should still work in Wood's favor at the plate.

A $100 buy at 18.27¢ comes out to about 547 shares, worth roughly $547 if the contract hits, or about $447 in profit. The board listed the To Win figure at $521.80, in the same ballpark as our number with the usual order-book gap.

• If Wood connects: shares pay $1 each for about $447 in profit on the $100 stake.
• If not: the $100 stake is lost outright.

This is a lower-probability swing than most of the picks on this board, but the payout multiple compensates for a player who is a game away from breaking out at any moment.

Best Home Run Bets Today for Mets vs Yankees – Aaron Judge (Yes | 24¢)

‼️ The Pick: Aaron Judge 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 24¢

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Judge just returned from a rib stress fracture that kept him out since the end of May, and the Yankees are being deliberate about easing him back in.

He went hitless in his first game back, and the club has already signaled they plan to manage his workload carefully with October in mind rather than push him at full volume right away.

That caution is exactly why a hitter of Judge's caliber, an eight-time All-Star and three-time AL MVP, is priced closer to a coin-flip contract than a lock.

New York (84-62) is well positioned in the standings, and the Mets (68-78) counter with McLean, a solid 11-8 arm with a 3.06 ERA, which is a genuinely tough draw for a hitter still finding his timing.

A $100 stake at 24¢ buys about 417 shares, for a gross payout near $417 and profit of roughly $317. The board's To Win number of $398.50 lines up with that same small gap seen across this board.

• If Judge homers: shares settle at $1 each for about $317 in profit.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is gone.

The price here is really a bet on ramp-up speed as much as raw power against a quality starter, so treat it as the highest-variance pick on this list.

Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today for Orioles vs Blue Jays – Kazuma Okamoto (Yes | 16.06¢)

‼️ The Pick: Kazuma Okamoto 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 16.06¢

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Okamoto has been the hottest rookie in baseball over the last two weeks, homering in back-to-back games to reach 30 for the season.

That made him the fifth Japanese-born player in MLB history to hit 30 home runs in a season, and the first to do it as a rookie, joining names like Hideki Matsui and Shohei Ohtani on that list.

Toronto (73-74) is squarely in the AL Wild Card hunt, so every extra-base hit from their rookie third baseman carries added weight down the stretch.

Baltimore (71-76) hands the ball to Bassitt, who is 6-5 with a 4.96 ERA, another matchup that favors the hot bat over the arm on paper.

A $100 buy at 16.06¢ works out to about 623 shares, or roughly $623 gross and $523 in profit. The board's To Win figure of $592.88 sits a little under that, consistent with the pattern here.

• If Okamoto goes deep: shares pay $1 each for about $523 in profit.
• If not: the $100 stake is lost entirely.

Riding a hot streak into a contract this cheap against a middling starter makes this one of the better value plays on the board tonight.

Best Home Run Bets Today for Royals vs Red Sox – Roman Anthony (Yes | 15¢)

‼️ The Pick: Roman Anthony 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 15¢

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Anthony missed nearly four months this season with a finger ligament injury, and his return has been anything but quiet.

Since coming back, he's gone 9-for-18 with four extra-base hits, including two home runs, and has recorded multiple hits in four straight games.

Boston's (80-67) lineup has needed exactly this kind of spark with both Willson Contreras and Adley Rutschman banged up, so Anthony's bat is carrying real weight right now.

Kansas City (65-82) sends out Lugo, who is 6-8 with a 5.04 ERA, one of the softer matchups on tonight's board for a hitter trying to build momentum.

A $100 buy at 15¢ comes out to about 667 shares, for a gross payout near $667 and profit of roughly $567. The board's To Win figure of $634.33 tracks with the usual gap.

• If Anthony connects: shares pay $1 each for about $567 in profit.
• If not: the $100 stake is lost.

The lowest price on this board reflects a young hitter who is still building his season total, but the recent form and a struggling opposing starter say the power is very much live.

Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today for Astros vs Rays – Yordan Alvarez (Yes | 21.94¢) (Editor's Pick)

‼️ The Pick: Yordan Alvarez 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 21.94¢

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This is the pick we're most excited about on this whole board, and it's the one we're putting real money on tonight.

Alvarez was limited to just 48 games last year by a hand fracture and an ankle sprain, but he's answered with arguably the best season of his career in 2026.

He currently sits second in the majors in home runs with 35 and leads all of baseball in OPS, riding a stretch where he's hit six home runs over his last 14 games while batting .429 in that span.

He's also reached base safely in 18 straight games, so the underlying contact quality backs up the power surge, not just a hot swing or two.

The one wrinkle here is the opponent: Tampa Bay (87-59) has been the best team in the American League this year, and they hand the ball to Rasmussen, who is 14-5 with a sharp 2.88 ERA, a legitimately tough draw even for a hitter this hot.

A $100 stake at 21.94¢ buys about 456 shares, for a gross payout near $456 and profit of roughly $356. The board's own To Win number came in at $435.40.

• If Alvarez homers: shares settle at $1 each for about $356 in profit on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Better than 3.5-to-1 on the game's hottest hitter, even against a quality arm, is the shape of trade we like making on a night like this.

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Best Home Run Bets Today for Phillies vs Braves – Matt Olson (Yes | 20¢)

‼️ The Pick: Matt Olson 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 20¢

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Olson is in the middle of an MVP-caliber season, sitting tied for second in all of baseball with 36 home runs.

His manager compared this year's underlying quality favorably to his franchise-record 54-homer season in 2023, noting Olson recently strung together seven home runs in a 41 at-bat stretch.

Atlanta (86-61) is working to close the gap on the Dodgers for the NL's number two seed, so Olson's bat matters as much for playoff positioning as for his own numbers.

Philadelphia (82-65) starts Nola, who is 6-10 with a 4.76 ERA, a line that plays right into a power hitter's hands.

A $100 buy at 20¢ comes out to 500 shares exactly, for a gross payout of $500 and profit of $400. The board's To Win figure landed at $477.10, the same small gap we've seen all night.

• If Olson goes deep: shares pay $1 each for $400 in profit on the $100 stake.
• If not: the $100 stake is lost entirely.

A clean 5-to-1 payout on one of the sport's most consistent power threats, against a starter with an ERA north of 4.75, is a straightforward, if not cheap, way to attack this board.

Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today for Reds vs Brewers – Elly De La Cruz (Yes | 18¢)

‼️ The Pick: Elly De La Cruz 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 18¢

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De La Cruz is riding the hottest streak of his career, homering in five straight games heading into this matchup, a career high and just off the franchise record.

That run has included two of the longest home runs hit anywhere in baseball this season, at 444 and 403 feet, both against elite pitching in Los Angeles.

Since the All-Star break he's batting .298 with a .924 OPS, and over his last seven games specifically he's hitting .500 with five home runs, so this is not a one-game blip.

Milwaukee (91-56) has the best record in baseball and turns to May, who sits at 6-9 with a 4.69 ERA, a reasonably beatable arm even for a club this good.

A $100 stake at 18¢ buys about 556 shares, for a gross payout near $556 and profit of roughly $456. The board's To Win figure of $529.50 tracks with the usual order-book gap.

• If De La Cruz connects: shares pay $1 each for about $456 in profit.
• If not: the $100 stake is lost.

Betting against a five-game home run streak this loud feels risky, and the price here still offers a healthy multiple if it continues.

Best Home Run Bets Today for White Sox vs Cardinals – Munetaka Murakami (Yes | 16¢)

‼️ The Pick: Munetaka Murakami 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 16¢

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Murakami just broke a 74-plate-appearance homerless drought this past weekend, cracking his 30th home run of the season, a milestone few rookies ever reach.

That made him part of the first trio of rookies in MLB history, alongside Kazuma Okamoto, to reach 30 home runs in the same season.

He's still striking out at a heavy clip in his first MLB season after years in Japan, but the power has never been in question, and the White Sox (75-71) currently lead the AL Central.

St. Louis (72-75) counters with Liberatore, who is 5-14 with a 5.57 ERA, by far the softest matchup on this entire board.

A $100 buy at 16¢ comes out to 625 shares exactly, for a gross payout of $625 and profit of $525. The board's To Win figure of $595.00 lands in the same familiar range.

• If Murakami homers: shares pay $1 each for $525 in profit on the $100 stake.
• If not: the $100 stake is lost outright.

Coming right off snapping a long drought, against a starter with an ERA over 5.50, this price is a bet that one swing gets him going again rather than a sign of any real slump in his underlying power.

Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today for Dodgers vs Marlins – Max Muncy (Yes | 17.22¢)

‼️ The Pick: Max Muncy 1+ Home Runs | Yes | 17.22¢

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Muncy just hit his 27th home run of the season earlier this week against Cincinnati, so this pick is about as fresh as it gets on this board.

He's a three-time All-Star and three-time World Series champion who has cleared 35 home runs in a season four times in his career, giving him a track record of exactly this kind of power surge.

Los Angeles (89-57) currently holds a clear lead over Atlanta in the race for the NL's number two seed, so Muncy's bat is directly tied to playoff seeding with only a few weeks left.

Miami (72-75) starts Gusto, a rookie who is 1-4 with a 4.23 ERA, a favorable matchup for a hitter who is already seeing the ball well.

A $100 stake at 17.22¢ buys about 581 shares, for a gross payout near $581 and profit of roughly $481. The board's To Win figure of $553.22 sits in that same range we've seen throughout this board.

• If Muncy connects: shares pay $1 each for about $481 in profit.
• If not: the $100 stake is lost entirely.

Closing out this board on a hitter who literally just went deep a few nights ago, against a rookie starter, feels like a fitting way to wrap things up.

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Best Home Run Bets Today: Final Thoughts

Ten different games, ten different HR stories, but the theme across this board is that recent injury returns and hot streaks are driving these prices more than season-long stats.

Players like Judge, Wood, and Anthony are priced with real caution baked in from their respective absences, while a healthy Alvarez and a streaking De La Cruz command higher prices for good reason, and several of tonight's opposing starters carry ERAs north of 4.50.

These MLB home run predictions today will keep moving right up to first pitch, so check the live board on Polymarket's prediction markets before you trade.

Polymarket Promo Code FAQs

What is the current Polymarket promo code?

The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $50 trading bonus for new users who deposit $10.

Which pick on this board is the Editor's Pick?

Our featured trade tonight is Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run against the Rays at 21.94¢, based on his recent power surge and 18-game on-base streak.

Which player on this list has the cheapest home run contract?

Roman Anthony carries the lowest price on this board at 15¢ to hit a home run against the Red Sox, reflecting his lighter home run total this season following an injury absence.

Which player is most heavily favored to homer tonight?

Aaron Judge carries the highest Yes price on this board at 24¢, though that price also reflects the uncertainty around his workload just days into his return from injury.

Which matchup features the toughest opposing starter?

Yordan Alvarez draws the toughest arm on the board in Tampa Bay's Drew Rasmussen, who carries a 14-5 record and a 2.88 ERA.

How do Polymarket home run contracts work?

Each contract resolves Yes if the named player hits at least one home run in that game, and No if they don't, with the contract settling at $1 per share for the winning side and $0 for the losing side.

How do I use the Polymarket promo code?

Sign up through the link on this page, make a qualifying deposit of at least $10, and the ACTION promo code will apply automatically to credit your $50 trading bonus.

When do these home run contracts resolve?

Each of these ten contracts resolves at the conclusion of its respective game tonight, once the final box score is official.

Are these the only home run props available on Polymarket tonight?

No, Polymarket lists home run and other player prop markets across the full MLB slate beyond the ten games covered in this piece.