Colts vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - September 21, 2026

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The biggest thing for me on this prop is that the market still hasn't fully adjusted to Josh Downs being an every-down player in this offense. He ran a route on 93.8% of Indianapolis' dropbacks in Week 1, after playing a much smaller role in previous seasons. He also finished 2025 at just 35.4 receiving yards per game, so 39.5 isn't much of an increase for this change in opportunity. The Michael Pittman departure is a big part of why I like this. Downs saw a significant bump in 12 personnel usage, playing 10 of 11 snaps in those packages after barely being on the field in two-receiver sets in previous seasons. That gives him a much more stable route floor than we've been accustomed to seeing. Week 1 was also encouraging from a usage standpoint despite only finishing with 37 yards — he led the Colts with 32 routes and played on essentially every passing down. I also like the matchup from a coverage perspective. Kansas City’s man tendencies is a good fit for Downs and his ability to create separation underneath. The game script is another positive. The Colts are 6.5-point underdogs with a strong 46.5 point total, so I expect them to be throwing plenty if this game plays out as expected. Ultimately, I think 39.5 is still pricing Downs too much like the 2025 version of his role. He averaged 35.4 yards per game last year, but the Colts are using him as a full-time receiver now. If he's going to continue running routes at this rate and Indianapolis is forced to throw as a substantial underdog, I think we see a pretty meaningful jump in his receiving production. @everyone

Boyd / FanDuel

Taking some shots after a big day

Half unit, smaller edge

Discussed this on PRO Discord

Discussed this in our PRO Discord. Proj closer to 38.5

50% boost

One last chance

@GDAWG5000 https://www.youtube.com/live/F3qz_cwrUfA?is=lrBbBonqKfUHvDg_

Analysis on my X/Tiktok @ anderspicks

It doesn’t look like we are going to get the 7, so I’m gonna go ahead and grab 6.5 while it’s still there.  This is a classic buy-low, sell-high spot with a heap of trends in our favor. We just watched the Chiefs demolish a fraudulent Broncos team on Monday night, while the Colts were crushed by a Ravens squad that might be the best team in the NFL. Denver's run defense got bulldozed by Kansas City, but the Colts typically have a solid run defense. Indy got picked apart in the passing game last week, but sadly, Kansas City is no longer built to beat teams that way. The Chiefs don't have the receivers to run it up through the air anymore. The Colts will likely run the ball, control the clock, and drag this into a slow, grind-it-out game. Kansas City is not built for blowouts anymore; the Chiefs have won by more than one score only nine times the last two years. The historical trends also favor the Colts. Week 2 trends are in Indy's favor: Road 'dogs coming off a double-digit loss are 83% ATS since 2014 'Dogs of 3-to-7 points that failed to cover in Week 1 are 70% ATS since 2014 Favorites playing a second straight home game cover at just a 30% rate The player- and coach-specific trends also like Indianapolis: Patrick Mahomes as a favorite of more than three points is just 43% ATS Daniel Jones as a road underdog is 66% ATS Shane Steichen is 7-3 ATS the first three weeks of the season Any time a team that just won by 17+ faces a team that just lost by 17+ points, history says it's a good idea to back the losing side, which covers at 59% ATS. Wait for the +7 to pop back up if you can, but +6.5 is fine as needed.

Downs ran routes on 88% of the team's passing plays and with gamescript suggesting the Colts chasing the game, we should see Downs get the opportunities to cover.

@wheatonbrando https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nfl-betting-playground-week-2/id1004530793?i=1000790459648

@GDAWG5000 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nfl-touchdown-show-week-2/id1004530793?i=1000790412504

THE BLITZ is forecasting 0.58 interceptions for Daniel Jones compared to 0.81 interceptions implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 66% of the time, resulting in a 32% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $32.10. This play is good down to at least -135. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

@EvanHAbrams https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nfl-week-2-betting-preview/id1004530793?i=1000790235301